How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 16-1 chances hold the key

Charlie Uberalles looks seriously underestimated in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday. 

The nine-year-old, chalked up at 16-1 by Paddy Power, is trained by Cumbria-based Dianne Sayer, who rarely ventures south with her horses and, as far as I can make out, has never previously had a runner at Kempton after almost 30 years with a licence. 

It seems significant that she’s breaking the mould with Charlie Uberalles, who put up a personal best when winning a valuable prize over 3m at Doncaster on his latest start. He’s only 4lb higher in the ratings and the form is solid. 

He fended off Docpickedme after travelling strongly and that horse has since landed the Great Yorkshire Chase at the main expense of The Changing Man, who himself has gone to scoop the Reynoldstown. 

The third home, the much-missed Forward Plan, had won the Great Yorkshire and this prize the previous season, while the fifth, Kinondo Kwetu, has since gone close in the Rowland Meyrick. 

Charlie Uberalles, a sound jumper well served by right-handed tracks, will be getting plenty of weight from well-fancied novices Hyland and Lowry’s Bar. The one niggle is that he seems well served by decent ground and there is light rain forecast Friday late afternoon into the evening, although it was good to soft last time. 

Elsewhere on the card, Keep Running appeals at a general 9-2 in the Ladbrokes-sponsored 2m4½f handicap chase (4.10). 

He’s well-named, being a bold-jumping front-runner, and this track should play to his strengths. The grey has gone up an aggregate of 13lb for his successive victories at Ludlow and Ffos Las but has looked a different horse since having wind surgery last spring. 

The RaceiQ metrics tell us he gained more 19 lengths with his jumping at Ffos Las last time (when he got a Jump Index score of 8.6) and it had been a similar story at Ludlow the time before. He seems versatile regards ground conditions. 

At Newcastle, it’s another 16-1 chance, Your Own Story, who gets the nod in the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase. The Lucinda Russell-trained nine-year-old is all about stamina and her two-time Grand National-winning stable is enjoying its best start to a year (20 winners and counting since January) for a decade. 

Your Own Story plugged on when sixth in the Welsh National last time (also has a sixth in the Scottish version on his CV) and he’s up against lesser opposition here from a mark that is just 2lb higher than when he was touched off in the Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase over almost 4m at the Punchestown Festival in May. He was ridden by Patrick Wadge that day and is belatedly reunited with him. 

I like the fact that Your Own Story is coming here fresh, having had a couple of months off, and there’s nothing wrong with his attitude, even though he has finished runner-up in eight of his 14 races over fences, winning only once. Sky Bet, who are offering seven places, make him 11-1, and his record in races over 3m 4f plus reads 416226. 

Jack Tudor is a rare visitor to Newcastle but has never finished worse than third in five rides at the track (two winners and a couple of second places) and can improve that tally with the help of Bust A Move in the Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap Hurdle (3.55) for Mick and David Easterby. 

This four-year-old is languishing 2lb out of the handicap but, nevertheless, looks well-in on his first start in a handicap over hurdles relative to his Flat form. And if he’s to take up his engagement in next month’s Fred Winter, for which he is an eye-catching 66-1, then he is going to need to rise up the weights. 

Bust A Move overcame keenness when winning on his hurdling bow at Catterick in December and was again exuberant when third on heavy going at Wetherby last time, although that did not stop him finishing his race off. The runner-up, Narrangansett, who he was effectively conceding 10lb, has since easily gone one better. 

Bust A Move should be capable of better when getting in a true-run race, which is on the cards here, and his jumping has been slick. He gained almost 14 lengths in the air first time out, according to the RaceiQ data, and about a dozen lengths last time, when his Jump Index score was an impressive 8.6. 

Finally, the last Pertemps qualifier at Chepstow (2.32) caught my eye. Monmiral was fourth in this last year before scoring at Cheltenham. 

Guard The Moon is already qualified for the final but his present rating of 128 means he is at risk of missing the cut for all the Festival handicaps. There’s little doubt that Nigel Twiston-Davies will want him in his team, so he will be keen to get him up the weights. 

Victory in this qualifier would guarantee that and he holds solid claims after a break, especially with James Turner, who has won on him in the past, taking 5lb off his back. 

(prices correct noon on 21/2/25)

2.10 Newcastle: Your Own Story £2 each-way 16-1with Coral and Ladbrokes (five places – Sky bet go 11-1 and offer seven places) 

2.32 Chepstow: Guard The Moon £2 win 11-4 

3.35 Kempton: Charlie Uberalles £2.50 each-way at 16-1with Paddy Power 

3.55 Newcastle: Bust A Move £4 win and £1.50 each-way 13-2 

4.10 Kempton: Keep Running £2 win at a general 9-2 

2.10 Newcastle: Your Own Story 

3.35 Kempton: Charlie Uberalles 

3.55 Newcastle: Bust A Move 

2.32 Chepstow: Guard The Moon 

4.10 Kempton: Keep Running