When looking at any handicap punters have to consider which horses appear to be improving and which seem to be regressing. In the latter case we have to evaluate whether a horse is genuinely on the downgrade or whether they are being plotted up for a coup.
Horses that had been dropped during the season have always won a share of Festival handicaps but a big change occurred in the summer of 2021 when the BHA’s handicapping methodology changed.
The relevant part of that changed methodology here is that the BHA now drop horses more quickly, when appropriate: “Where those horses are older, regressive or non-winning”.
I think this change has further improved handicapping generally – but it does also look to make it easier to plot horses up, so I’ve researched the stats.
The first grid below sets out the number of "dropped horses’" that have won a renewal of the eight handicaps run at the 2024 Festival (the Fred Winter is ignored as whilst not restricted to first season hurdlers few, if any, runners had a handicap mark the previous season).
For each of those eight handicaps it shows the split of winners before and after that change in handicapping methodology.
To qualify horses must have had a mark from running over those obstacles before the start of the season – and then ran off a lower mark at the Festival. There are some wrinkles with this approach such as the different handicapping systems in Britain and Ireland, which I’ve ignored for simplicity.
The position is complicated by the fact that marks can be reassessed over the summer, and there was a major reassessment (downwards) in the summer of 2021 when the new handicapping methodology came in.
I’ve therefore included horses that ran at the Festival off a mark lower than the mark they had on either: 1 their first run in the current season or 2 their last run the previous season
The grid shows that the proportion of handicaps won by horses running off "a lower mark" has jumped from 18% before the change in methodology to 33% since.
There has been a lot of debate about the handicapping of Langer Dan but this isn’t just about one horse - lots of horses are winning having been dropped more quickly now.
The next question is how much are these winners being dropped? Is it just 1lb or 2lb – and those Festival winners have been in decent form? Or have they been out of form and so dropped a lot?
The second grid only includes those winners who had been dropped 4lb or more:
Before the handicapping methodology changed it was a roughly 50-50 split between winners that had been dropped 1-3lb and those that had been dropped 4lb or more.
Since that change the proportion of dropped winners that had been dropped 4lb+ has increased to 88% - and those winners won 29% of all these handicaps run at the last three Festivals.
We therefore should be very interested in horses that have been dropped a sizeable amount during the season.
Whilst Irish-trained horses that have been dropped since the start of the season can obviously win - five of the 29 winners between 2000 and 2021 were Irish-trained - none of the eight at the past three Festivals were from Irish stables.
The British handicapper keeps performance ratings and Irish horses are entered in Britain during the season - but Irish horses are mainly given an official mark for the first time during the season for the Festival.
It may be that they won’t benefit from being dropped during the season in the same way. I’m therefore focusing here only on the British-trained horses.
If horses who have been dropped are winning a good proportion of Festival handicaps we need to answer two questions: 1 Will we have a lot of runners to sift through? 2 Are they profitable to follow?
The good news is that it’s not a massive number of actual runners that have been dropped at all. In 2022 there were 31, in 2023 there were 43 and in 2024 there were 28. That’s only 4.25 per handicap on average.
If you’d backed all 102 British "dropped horses" blind at the past three Festivals you would have made a 51pt (50%) profit, so even before we use our judgment to improve returns, it has been a profitable trend to follow.
The eight winners are in the grid below:
Unsurprisingly, the two winners that had been dropped most were in 2022, the season the population of British horses as a whole was adjusted downwards.
I’m not expecting to see too many Festival winners having been dropped by 12lb+ going forward. I suspect those that are dropped that much are more likely to have gone.
However, as we can see, horses were still winning in 2023 and 2024 having been dropped significantly.
Identifying the plots
So, how do we identify the plots? There will be lots of different factors that might signal "plot"; it’s something to be open-minded about. I’ve set out a couple.
The first jumps out from that grid – trainers.
Dan Skelton is responsible for four of the eight, all of which were at the past two Festivals.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Skelton noticed what happened in 2022 and realised this was an opportunity to campaign his Festival handicap projects accordingly. You won’t be alone in looking for the Skelton plots but that doesn’t mean the market will have them priced accurately.
The second angle is less obvious. You need plenty of class to win a Festival handicap and if a horse has been dropped then they probably have more chance if dropped from a high mark to a middling one, than a middling mark to a low one.
In the latter scenario there can be the issue that a horse may be well handicapped but just can’t go the gallop of the Festival race and so gets knocked out of a rhythm.
I’ve therefore looked at horses who were good enough to win a graded conditions race over the same obstacles but who have been dropped in the weights. That reduces the qualifiers from 102 to 32, (13 in 2022, 12 in 2023 and seven in 2024.)
It does capture four of those eight winners: Global Citizen had won the Wayward Lad two seasons before. Third Wind had won the Rendlesham the previous season. Faivoir had won the Rossington Main two seasons before. Monmiral had won the Summit and Anniversary three seasons before.
Those previous graded conditions race winners who had been dropped are 4/32 – 83pt (259%) profit. They were also the four winners who had been dropped most.
We only have the entries not the weights at the moment but whilst there may be some collateral adjustments for the British horses, most will be given their current marks. So which horses jump out at this initial stage?
There are 56 British horses entered in the Festival handicaps that have been dropped, (based on their current ratings.) Last year, 75 such entries led to 28 runners - so the numbers do become much more manageable at the declaration stage.
Skelton runners to note
Dan Skelton, right, pictured with brother Harry
Dan Skelton’s runners are the obvious place to start and his wider record at the Festival is important here. He’s had ten winners, seven of which were in handicaps. None of the ten was over further than 2m5f and his seven handicap wins are split: County Hurdle – four. Coral Cup – two. Grand Annual - one
Skelton learnt his trade with Paul Nicholls - Monmiral’s Pertemps win was Nicholls’ 16th handicap success at the Festival but his first beyond 2m5f.
Skelton’s Festival handicappers want respecting in any race but those at short and intermediate trips, especially the hurdlers, are the ones to especially focus on.
Langer Dan is only 2lb lower than he started the season and would have a stiff task off 158 if going for the Coral Cup rather than the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle.
Unexpected Party is also 2lb lower than he started the season but is still 6lb higher than when winning the Grand Annual last year. Since Edredon Bleu in 1998/99, Grand Annual winners are 0/63 in handicap chases the following season. I suspect he’s up against it too.
Trying to second-guess Skelton handicap projects is a dangerous game but I wonder whether, since she didn’t take to fences in the autumn, if West Balboa has been one.
She has been dropped 7lb to 136 for her past three hurdles starts. She was running a decent race in first-time cheekpieces last time before a mistake at the second last put her on the back foot.
She was then badly hampered by a faller at the last. She’s 25/1 for the Coral Cup and 50/1 for the Martin Pipe.
Former graded winners
Fantastic Lady appeals in the Kim Muir
The two graded conditions race winners who have been dropped a lot may have gone. Editeur Du Gite won the Desert Orchid and Clarence House two seasons ago and is down 20lb to 140 this season. His run style suits the Grand Annual and the Moores may be just running into better form – but he’s 11 now and takes a bit of a leap of faith to take the 33/1.
Third Time Lucki won the November and Lightning two seasons ago when with Skelton and is down 11lb to 134 this season. He’d looked a short finisher when with Skelton and appealed for a big handicap down the line as he matured and stayed better. He’s shown little in three runs for Fergal O’Brien this season and is 50/1 for the Grand Annual.
The one that appeals is Fantastic Lady who won the Grade Two Oaksey Chase on the final day of last season. She’s run well the past twice in mares' Listed races and is down 5lb this season to 144. She is going for the Kim Muir, a race Nicky Henderson has won three times, and is quoted at 25/1. Jockey bookings are all important in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir but she’s on my shortlist at this stage.
Other Dropped Horses
Ginny’s Destiny is down 6lb to 149
Paul Nicholls is operating at a strike rate of 18% this season, the first time it’s been below 20% since 1994/5.
Both Nicholls and Harry Cobden were upbeat at the weekend after Pic D’Orhy won the Ascot Chase and Threeunderthrufive was chinned in a premier handicap. The vibes were that the horses were turning the corner.
I’d want to see more evidence of that between now and the Festival but if they are running into form then Nicholls could have some well-handicapped horses for the spring.
Ginny’s Destiny had a fine novice season last term, including finishing two lengths second to Grey Dawning in the Turners at the Festival.
He hasn’t fired in three starts this season but as a consequence is is down 6lb to 149. His aggressive run style is ideally suited to the Plate and if you use stable form as an excuse then he looks well handicapped.
Grey Dawning is now rated 162 and Djelo, (eight lengths behind Ginny’s Destiny in the Turners,) is now rated 166. Ginny’s Destiny is 20/1 for the Plate and Nicholls is also mooting the Ultima for which he’s 25/1.
Finally, two of the past three winners of the Plate were placed the previous season and Crebily went off just 7/2 when 1¼ lengths second last year.
He’d faced only 13 opponents in three starts over fences and didn’t look streetwise enough for a Plate, never getting into a rhythm. He’s down 4lb this season to 138, 2lb lower than last year. He should be more the finished article over fences now and is a 12/1 shot for the Plate.
Win the ultimate Cheltenham package!