How To Bet £20 at Cheltenham on Saturday: Gumball can leave rivals trailing at 12-1

If there is one horse begging to be backed at Cheltenham on Saturday then it has to be Gumball in the From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase.

The bookmakers believe the Philip Hobbs-trained six-year-old is the weakest link in the six-runner line-up, quoting him as the outsider in the line-up at 12-1, but his form over hurdles compares favourably with his rivals and he was convincing when opening his account over fences at the second time of asking at Uttoxeter last time.

We also know the front-running grey is effective in testing conditions at the track, as he went down by a neck in the Greatwood Hurdle on heavy going 12 months ago off a lofty rating of 147. Plenty of rain is forecast on Saturday morning, so soft going is on the cards.

Fusil Raffles is chalked up as the 5-4 favourite and the formbook tells us he had Gumball 17 lengths adrift in third when the pair met on their respective chasing debuts at Uttoxeter in September. However, Gumball, who started at 2-1 on that occasion, palpably did not show his true colours as he was too fresh and made numerous errors.

He looked a completely different horse in the jumping department last time and gets 3lb from his old rival, who he would meet on level terms if they were to meet in a handicap hurdle. He’s a strong stayer over two miles and, provided he can get in an early rhythm, will take some pegging back.

Two others I like at double-figure odds are Weather Front and Whatsupwithyou.

Weather Front remains relatively unexposed over hurdles and a summer switch to the yard of Iain Jardine has not done him any harm. He was not beaten far in the competitive 2m5f handicap hurdle won by Captain Tom Cat at Cheltenham last month, when he was never nearer than at the finish after being anchored in rear and, with the benefit of hindsight, given quite a lot to do.

Stepping up to 3m promises to suit and I’m a fan of Conor O’Farrell, who rides him for the first time. Jardine is also equipping Weather Front with first-time cheekpieces, which may also help stimulate him.The 14-1 on offer looks generous.

Captain Tom Cat runs in the Paddy Power First Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle 35 minutes later and is generally 3-1 favourite to extend his winning sequence to four.

He seems certain to again go well but Whatsupwithyou was an eye-catching seventh behind him in that Cheltenham race last time, when beaten under five lengths, and gets a 6lb pull. Moreover, Ben Pauling’s charge was having his first run of the campaign - and only fourth of his career - and is entitled to be sharper.

The more testing ground also looks more in his favour and, all things considered, the gulf between him Captain Tom Cat in the betting is bizarre. But let's not worry about that and gobble up the 12-1 on offer.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase is the feature race of the day but it looks a really difficult puzzle to solve this year with most of the 17 runners having some sort of chance.

Al Dancer is the one I like most, even though I still have slight reservations about his jumping. He was among last season’s top 2m novice chasers but often hinted that further would suit, including when beaten a length by Mister Fisher, who he meets again, in a Grade Two contest at Doncaster in late January.

He went a long way to confirming that impression when winning over 2m5f on his return at Newton Abbot, when giving weight and a beating to the useful Master Tommytucker (a winner since) after that horse had travelled the stronger.

I like the fact Al Dancer, a general 9-1, has got that run under his belt – only one of the past seven Paddy Power Gold Cup winners have been making their seasonal reappearances – and it’s worth remembering that he was trying to concede 10lb to subsequent Arkle winner Put The Kettle On when chasing her home at this meeting last year.

I’m also going to have a small saver on bold-jumping front-runner Siruh Du Lac, a fluent Festival winner in 2019 who has had a wind op and been switched to the yard of David Pipe since we last saw him in action.

Last season was a write-off for him as he was pulled up on his return (in the Paddy Power) and fell two out when defending his Festival crown. However, he was putting up a bold defence when exiting and we will never know if he would have beaten Simply The Betts and Happy Diva, who went on to fight out the finish.

What we do know is that he meets that pair on better terms and I think we can be assured that Pipe, whose team are in great form, will have him trained to the minute. His attacking style of running will means that, unlike others, the 12-1 chance will not be a hostage to fortune.

Finally, Kilfilum Cross is worth a play at 11-2 with William Hill in the South West Syndicate Handicap Chase, which is restricted to conditional jockeys and amateur riders.

It doesn’t look the deepest staying handicap chase ever staged at Cheltenham and, quite simply, Kilfilum Cross will take all the beating if in anything like the form that has seen him finish runner-up under Alex Edwards in the Kim Muir Chase at The Festival for the past two years.

He was slightly underwhelming on his return at Fakenham but his profile points to him always needing a run and I’m guessing that outing was merely to add an edge for this assignment.

1.05 Cheltenham: Kilfilum Cross £3 win at 11-2 with William Hill

1.40 Cheltenham: Gumball £4 win at 12-1 with bet365

2.15 Cheltenham: Al Dancer £2 win at a general 9-1

2.15 Cheltenham: Siruh Du Lac £1 win at at 12-1 with bet365 and BetVictor

2.50 Cheltenham: Weather Front £2.50 each way at 16-1 with bet365

3.25 Cheltenham: Whatsupwithyou £1 win and £2 each-way at 12-1 with bet365

35p Each-Way Super Yankee - take early prices where you can

1.05 Cheltenham: Kilfilum Cross

1.40 Cheltenham: Gumball

2.15 Cheltenham: Al Dancer

2.50 Cheltenham: Weather Front

3.25 Cheltenham: Whatsupwithyou

Plus

1.40 Cheltenham: Gumball - £1.80 win at 12-1 with bet365