Harry Allwood takes a look ahead to the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on December 27 and makes a case for two chalked up at double-figure odds. Chepstow’s feature race of the year was earmarked as a potential target for Pats Fancy following his victory in a novices' handicap chase on Coral Welsh Grand National day 12 months ago and he looks to hold strong claims of landing the 3m5f showpiece this year.
The seven-year-old found plenty under pressure and shaped as though this sort of test would suit on that occasion when defeating Imperial Alcazar, who bolted up in a Cheltenham handicap on his next outing before finishing second at the Cheltenham Festival, and that suggests Pats Fancy remains nicely handicapped off a rating of 142.
He also defeated Ultima runner-up Gericault Roque on his previous outing at Chepstow where he again showed a willing attitude and while he was no match for Bravemansgame on his penultimate start at Newbury last season, the ground was probably a shade quick for him there. The same can be said for his below-par performance at the Cheltenham Festival, especially as his career-best efforts have been on soft ground.
Although he failed to sparkle on his return to action over hurdles at this track, he ran well for a long way and connections will have surely left plenty to work on ahead of that outing, so he should be primed for this contest now.
One slight concern is that Rebecca Curtis isn’t in the greatest form, and at the time of writing, she has failed to train a winner from 19 runners across November and December. Most of those have been outsiders, though, and she did operate at a strike-rate of 21 per cent in October.
The Welsh handler came close to winning this contest with Teaforthree, who had a similar profile, in 2013 and, given that Pats Fancy ran in Grade One contests as a novice hurdler, his connections must hold him in relatively high regard.
It is therefore unlikely we have seen the best of him over fences and with plenty of give underfoot almost guaranteed here, this course specialist will have plenty in his favour, despite being 7lb above his last winning mark.
Another contender who is worth having on side is The Galloping Bear, a former point-to-point performer who showed his liking for this trip when landing the Surrey National on heavy ground last season before defeating Bristol De Mai in the the Grand National Trial at Haydock off a rating of 140.
carlisle
14:30 Carlisle - Sunday November 27
The Galloping Bear warmed up for this contest with a spin over hurdles at Carlisle
Despite rising ten, he remains relatively lightly raced over fences and connections have had this race in mind for some time, with a recent pipe-opener over hurdles an ideal outing ahead of this contest.
The general 10-1 on offer looks fair, and the more rain that falls, the better his chance will be.
The classy Royale Pagaille was another who made the shortlist, but he hasn’t had an ideal preparation, with a “small niggle” ruling him out of the Betfair Chase in November, and although he does go well fresh, it will be a mammoth performance for him to win this off a rating of 163.
He isn’t a guaranteed runner, either, so I have resisted having a few quid on him, despite the 20-1 on offer looking attractive for a horse who is sure to be suited by this sort of test.
How To Bet £20 ante-post on the 2022 Coral Welsh Grand National:
£14 win on PATS FANCY at a general 12-1.
£6 win on THE GALLOPING BEAR at a general 10-1.