Dave Nevison: four top tips for Saturday

Afadil certainly enjoys his trips to Scotland and is now 2lb lower than his last winning mark.

After his winning British debut at Taunton a little over two years ago he has only ever won north of the border, and he has won at this meeting for the last two seasons - including from a 10lb-higher mark in 2024. 

Afadil raced on the worst of the ground on the inside at Southwell last time and the handicapper might have been generous in dropping him 3lb for that write-off run, but it looks very much a case of him not being up to winning competitive handicaps down south while enjoying this speed-favouring Musselburgh.

Freddie Gingell - aboard for his success in this last year - takes the ride again.

I have had success in the last week with horses who have previously endured sequences of second places and this 10-year-old - certainly runner-up plenty of times - has plenty going for him, not least at the 16/1 odds with four places on offer. 

The Cole family have long been associated with stamina-laden horses and Hauraki Gulf certainly wants a trip and soft ground. I am hopeful that Cameron Iles and his 7lb claim will make a difference in the closing stages of this gruelling handicap and that his mount will be staying on better than most to grab a place. 

Iles has made a very good start to 2025 and the jockey rode a winner for the yard earlier this week, so the small Deborah Cole stable is definitely in good enough form.

While I am certain that such a race as this was never Plan A for Shan Blue, it's also true that he looks so well handicapped now.

Shan Blue is only remembered for his fall when set to bolt up in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby a few years ago and he has never managed to live up to the promise of that performance. 

However, it now seems pretty clear that he doesn’t go well at Cheltenham - he was backed into favourite and unplaced for the fifth time there last time - and if you strip out those runs from his form figures, in addition to a hurdles run and another pulled-up effort after an absence, then all of a sudden the 11-year-old doesn’t appear anywhere near as disappointing. 

Shan Blue's best completed start over fences is probably his Scilly Isles effort on this card three years ago, so clearly this track suits him very well.

This decent Flat handicapper for Richard Fahey had a rating in the mid-70s and he may well have the potential to be pretty well handicapped as he starts out in jumps handicaps. 

Muzaffar might have had an issue since joining Adrian Keatley, but he ran perfectly well on his second start for the stable and first run for 12 months last time when third at Market Rasen. 

Although this trip will be a bare minimum for Muzaffar, Keatley is using his 10lb claimer James Robottom on horses with live chances so the trainer clearly thinks plenty of him. This might be another Saturday winner for the young conditional rider.