How To Bet £20 on a spectacular Saturday

There’s a stack of superb racing in England, Ireland and Scotland on Saturday with the third clash between Galopin De Champs and Fact To File in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Leopardstown (3.30) being the undoubted highlight.

Finding chinks in the armour of Galopin Des Champs is a thankless task (3.30 Leopardstown) and I imagine he will feature in plenty of accumulators alongside two exciting novice chasers in Majborough (2.55 Leopardstown) and Jango Baie (2.35 Sandown), who are also hot favourites to win their respective Grade One assignments. That treble will pay about 4-1, at the general odds on offer, and I wouldn’t put you off it.

It's the handicaps that will make or break my day, though, with three of my fancies running on the richly endowed card at Musselburgh on ground that is likely to be much better than elsewhere in Britain provided the course officials do not get carried away with watering.

Harry Derham has clearly had this meeting ringed in the calendar for some while, with his strong team for day one including Balhambar in the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (2.17).

This useful Flat performer has run cracking races in defeat at Cheltenham and Southwell this campaign – the latter race was worth more than £70,000 – and a 5lb rise for those efforts does not look prohibitive, especially with this looking a slightly less competitive affair.

He should enjoy getting back on some better ground and this speed-favouring track will also suit. Derham has had a frustrating time with “seconditis” since the turn of the year but had a welcome winner at Catterick on Friday.

The Kalooki Kid is no bigger than 5-2 for the bet365 Scottish Champion Chase, but I would not want to be laying anything like that price after his emphatic win at Doncaster last time when the RaceiQ data reveals he gained almost 18 lengths with his jumping.

This is a deeper race but The Kalooki Kid is easily the most unexposed runner in the line-up and will be getting lumps of weight from plenty of the others. I also like the fact that he races up near the pace, as it doesn’t pay to try and come from off the pace at Musselburgh away from soft ground.

Bashful is also worth an interest in the finale as he seeks a repeat success in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle (4.27). This horse needs decent ground to be seen to best advantage and is only 1lb higher than when taking the spoils last year, when it looked like conditions might have gone against him.

You can put a line through his past two starts over hurdles, on account of testing going, and his recent encouraging spin on the all-weather at Newcastle should have put him spot-on for this.

They’ve also had another play with his wind since that run – he’s won and run well in defeat after two previous breathing operations – and he’s running from the foot of the weights at a speed-favouring track (two from three here) that clearly plays to his strengths.

My main fancy at Sandown Park is the Christian Williams-trained Deep Cave, who is available at 8-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle.

This seven-year-old has had only 13 runs but already had the distinction of being trained in Ireland, France and Wales. This time two years ago he was running well in Grade One company over almost 2m 6f at the Dublin Racing Festival but a move to France proved unproductive as they tried to mould him into a 2m chaser, which perhaps was not unreasonable given he’s a brother of the smart JPR One.

Williams has quickly identified he’s nothing like his sibling and a happier horse in 3m staying hurdles. He’s progressed with each of his four runs for the yard, with his latest close fourth to Titan Discovery at Windsor representing a personal best.

Deep Cave led over the final hurdle that day but lacked another gear to finish the job off. To my eye he looks an out-and-out galloper and this stiffer test at Sandown should unlock further improvement. Another plus is that he’s got under 11st to carry, like 17 of the past 21 victors of what is always a stamina-sapping contest. One of the exceptions was the top-class Baracouda, but there’s nothing of his calibre in the field.

The pair who stand out for me at Leopardstown are Lady Vega Allen in the Gannon's City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle  and Perceval Legallois in the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (2.25).

We saw next to nothing of Lady Vega Allen’s short-head defeat at the hands of Hello Neighbour at Leopardstown over Christmas because of heavy fog. By the time they came into view the race was almost over, with Lady Vega Allen needing another yard to get up.

However, the RaceiQ data tells us exactly what happened. Hello Neighbour was up with the pace throughout, whereas Lady Vega Allen sat out the back under Sean O’Keeffe. 

The sectionals reveal that Lady Vega Allen was quicker than Hello Neighbour through each of the final six furlongs, and easily quickest of the whole field through the final half mile. The evidence points to her being an unlucky loser and I fancy she will turn the tables.

O’Keeffe keeps the ride, with Paul Townend staying loyal to easy Punchestown winner Sainte Lucie. That just means we get a bigger price about Lady Vega Allen, so I’m not going to grumble.

Incidentally, Matt Tombs wrote an informative article about Willie Mullins and perceived second strings earlier in the week. .

Perceval Legallois reverts to to hurdling after an emphatic win in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

The eight-year-old can race off an 18lb lower mark in this sphere and is unfortunate not to be seeking a third successive win at this meeting. He won this race in emphatic fashion two years ago (the last time that we saw him over hurdles) and was coming with a winning run in a handicap chase last year, only to fall at the final fence.

Meetingofthewaters is in the same ownership and even better treated, relative to his chase form. However, he does seem much better over the larger obstacles and Perceval Legallois is three times his price.

Mark Walsh rides the tip, although I would not read too much into that as he would not have been able to make the weight on Meetingofthewaters. 

£2 win treble on Jango Baie, Majborough and Galopin Des Champs (pays about 4-1) 

1.50 Leopardstown: £2.50 win Lady Vega Allen at a general 7-2 

2.17 Musselburgh: £1 win and £1 each-way Balhambar at a general 6-1 (four places – SkyBet go 5-1 and five places) 

2.25 Leopardstown: £2 each-way Perceval Legallois at 13-2 with bet365 (five places) 

2.50 Musselburgh: £2 win The Kalooki Kid at a general 5-2 

3.07 Sandown: £2 each-way Deep Cave at 9-1 with Ladbrokes 

4.27 Musselburgh: £1.25 each-way Bashful  

32p Win Heinz 

1.50 Leopardstown: Lady Vega Allen 

2.17 Musselburgh: Balhambar 

2.25 Leopardstown: Perceval Legallois 

2.50 Musselburgh: The Kalooki Kid 

3.07 Sandown: Deep Cave 

4.27 Musselburgh: Bashful 

Plus a £1.76 win treble on Jango Baie, Majborough and Galopin Des Champs (about 4-1)