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Horse racing tips for Saturday: Dave Nevison's four best bets at Warwick and Kempton

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Fri 15 Jan 2021

Our website tipster has two fancies at Warwick, including one in the Classic Chase, as well as two fancies at Kempton.

12.40 Warwick: Detatched at 11-2 with William Hill

This horse is reunited with Ben Godfrey, who won on him on his penultimate start, and hit the headlines at Fontwell on Thursday riding a treble for Anthony Honeyball.

His confidence will obviously be sky-high and his 7lb claim will certainly be a great asset in what are certain to be very testing conditions on Saturday.

Two miles is possibly short of this horse’s best, so the likelihood of a strong pace here is set to suit Detached who has run well over course and distance before, so hopefully he won’t be too far back at the turn into the short straight.

He has been dropped 2lb for a disappointing effort under a very inexperienced jockey last time, and is now just 4lb above his last winning mark.

3.00 Warwick: Notachance at a general 9-2

I am going with the younger legs in this traditional Warwick marathon and it was a bit of a coin-toss between this one, and Storm Control from the Kerry Lee yard.

I am hoping that Notachance has been kept for this race after his win in November at Bangor. He needed three miles to win over hurdles, and the best of his form is all over long-distance chases in the mud.

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He has been noted jumping well around Newbury, which is always a big plus for me for a developing chaser, and I think he is absolutely crying out for this trip, but I’m not sure Storm Control is.

The weights are compressed down by the presence of top-weight Ballyoptic, so even though he has gone up 7lb for his Bangor win, he is still carrying just 10st 5lb here, and several runners have been pushed out of the handicap proper.

I am not sure this race is as competitive as it has been on occasions and will be very disappointed if Notachance lives up to his name.

6.50 Kempton: Elmejor at 8-1 with Bet365

Elmejor did his winning in January last year and is in good enough form this time around to notch what will be his first handicap success soon.

Although he has been beaten twice off a mark a 1lb lower than his rating of 79 on his recent starts, I am not sure it is his mark that is the problem.

Winners have come out of both the races he has been beat in and he is drawn well enough to get a good position plus has bits and pieces of weight pulls with other runners, so a good run looks assured.

7.50 Kempton: Only The Brave at 100-30 with Bet365

May still be fragile as there were regular gaps in his appearances in Ireland and after a promising run on his debut for Archie Watson in October, Only The Brave has not been seen since.

That run came in an amateurs’ event on heavy ground, and may have taken a bit out of her, but with Hollie Doyle booked and off a mark 17lb lower than her highest Irish rating, I believe she could be very well treated.

I also have a strong suspicion there may be a market move here as her rivals here look largely very exposed.

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