Guide to the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase

Willie Mullins enjoys safety in numbers in the John Durkan, not least because the timing of the race falls ideally in terms of the Christmas programme. 

Since 2009, he has only been single-handed on three occasions – in 2012 when Sir Des Champs finished second; in 2014 when Boston Bob did likewise; and in 2018 when Min gained the first of his three triumphs in the race. 

Min was joined by two stablemates when retaining his crown the following year and 12 months later the Mullins party had swelled to four and he landed a 1-2-3. Not that we saw much in the thick fog.

That was nothing compared to 2021, when he dispatched a team of seven and his six finishers came home 1-2-3-5-7-8. Had Asterion Forlonge not blundered away his rider three out when swinging away on the bridle, he would almost certainly have been responsible for the first four home. 

Mullins fielded only two runners in 2022 but that was because the contest took place on December 19. That did not fit in with the master trainer’s plans for Christmas, but he still took the spoils courtesy of the long odds-on Galopin Des Champs. 

Normal service has been resumed for the past two years. He fielded five of the six runners in 2023 and last year was responsible for half of the eight runners, when Fact To File gave him a record extending tenth triumph in the race. Like Mullins’ first victor, Florida Pearl, who was the outsider of four runs when winning in 2001, Fact Or File was not asked to go hurdling. 

Mullins has been responsible for 25 of the 44 runners in the John Durkan in the past six years (almost 57%) but it has not always been this way. He did not have a runner in five successive renewals between 2002 and 2006, but his stable has since flourished. 

Which brings us on to his seven possible runners on Sunday: Fact To File (official rating 173), Gaelic Warrior (170), I Am Maximus (170), Nick Rockett (169) Grangeclare West (166), James Du Berlais (159) and Lecky Watson (159). Will all seven take part? Maybe. Will the majority line up? Almost certainly. 

None of them are older than nine and they make for a formidable squad. Each has been absent for at least seven months and will probably be at different stages of readiness but Mullins’ 25 winners in Ireland since the start of September have been gained at a 25 per cent strike-rate, so I do not imagine the master trainer has had many sleepness nights in the build-up. Unless, of course, he has been recounting all the dollars he won with Ethical Diamond at the Breeders’ Cup. 

His big two this weekend are Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior, who dominate the market. The former is a top-priced 5-4 with William Hill, with the latter a general 11-4. Mullins’ other quintet range between 16-1 and 50-1. 

Overall, bookmakers and punters have had to choose between more than one Mullins runner in this race on 14 occasions this century. Ten times the shortest-priced runner from the stable has fared best, and maybe it would have been 11 had Barker not unseated Ruby Walsh in the 2009 edition. 

That augurs well for Fact To File, who won a thrilling edition of this race 12 months ago and was stunning when gliding clear in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March. The link between the pair was the intermediate trip. 

Two-and-a-half miles, or thereabouts, is his perfect playground even though Mullins seems to be itching to push him down the Gold Cup route. 

Before the Ryanair, Fact To File had not convinced he was a thorough stayer when placed behind Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup, and afterwards he bombed out dropped back to 2m at Punchestown. JP McManus, his owner, has lots of jigsaw pieces to move around (Inothewayurthinkin, Majborough, Jonbon, Spillane’s Tower and so on) and it would not be a big surprise if Fact To File ended up defending his Ryanair Chase crown in March. 

Gaelic Warrior is a Grade One winner over a range of distances and is dynamic when on song, but his career has also included some notable reverses, including five times when chalked up at 13-8 or shorter. 

His first couple of runs last season were lacklustre but his last two, when upped in trip at Aintree and Sandown, were scintillating. To a degree, that sums him up (although his top drawer runs still outweigh his average efforts). 

It is easy to forget this slightly enigmatic character is still only a seven-year-old and Patrick Mullins has been vocal about him in recent weeks, suggesting he could be a King George and Gold Cup winner. 

Gaelic Warrior no longer seems reliant on going right-handed, but Punchestown almost certainly suits him better than Leopardstown. He beat Inothewayurthinkin by 15 lengths in a common canter when making his return/chgasing bow at this meeting two years ago, having won a ten-runner maiden hurdle by 86 lengths on his reappearance at Tramore the year before. 

It's amusing that Mullins can also lob one of last season’s leading staying novices, Lecky Watson, who won a non-vintage Brown Advisory, into the equation, not to mention two Grand National winners in the shape of I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett. 

And for good measure he also has Grangeclare West, an unlucky third in National last season after finishing runner-up in the Irish Gold Cup, and James Du Berlais, a fluent winner of a valuable handicap chase over course and distance at the Punchestown Festival in May. 

Which of the Mullins squad will fare best? 

It looks something of a toin coss between Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior. The latter is the much bigger price, so I would be in his camp. 

The Cheltenham Gold Cup in March was meant to be all about Galopin Des Champs joining the rare ranks of horses to have won chasing’s blue riband at least three times. Destiny was calling but, for whatever reason, he was subdued. 

Waiting in the wings to take advantage was Inothewayurthinkin. The youngest runner in the line-up, at 7, powered to an emphatic six-length success over the two-time champ, with the rest left toiling. 

He could have run off his old mark in the Grand National the following month and looked a handicap good thing, but connections resisted the temptation to ask him to try and emulate Golden Miller. He would have been 16lb well-in. 

The Punchestown Festival was also rejected. Such respect for a young horse who must have had to dig deep at Prestbury Park was admirable. 

Inothewayurthinkin will now resurface after 254 days off the track over a trip short of his optimum. A good starting point for the months ahead, but perhaps nothing more. It is difficult to see him having the gears to match such as Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior, although that has not stopped him being trimmed to 6-1 by most firms in the ante-post betting. 

He went off at 22-1 for last year’s renewal and was anonymous, trailing home last of the seven finishers. 

Gavin Cromwell has said he expects much better this time around but the form of his stable must be a concern, with just one of his 103 runners since October 27 being successful (correct before racing on Wednesday November 19). 

In his latest blog for William Hill, Cromwell said on Wednesday: “We’re happy with him at home and he seems in great form. The trip is a little bit on the sharp side for him, but it’s a nice starting point for this season. He’s a sharper, stronger horse than he was this time last year, so we’re hopeful of a good run. 

“In my mind, a good run would be a clear round of jumping and galloping well to the line without being beaten too far. I hope he can be competitive, but you have the likes of Fact To File in there who is a faster horse. We’ll probably struggle to beat him on the day. Hopefully we can make a race of it.” 

Regards jockey bookings, he added: “I don’t know the final decision on who will ride Inothewayurthinkin yet - we'll speak with connections on that. I suspect Mark Walsh will ride Fact To File having won the race on him last year, but we’ll have to wait and see. If that's the case, I’d say Keith Donoghue will probably ride our lad.” 

Welcome back, Fastorslow. We have all missed you. 

Martin Brassil’s flagbearer has been on the sidelines for a year since finishing a creditable fourth in last year’s John Durkan when perhaps not quite at his best. He was subsequently found to have suffered a soft tissue injury and missed the rest of the campaign. 

He went off the 6-4 favourite 12 months ago and with good reason, having taken the spoils the previous year when repelling five Willie Mullins-trained runners. And that success was sandwiched in between two Punchestown Gold Cup triumphs, when he mastered Galopin Des Champs on each occasion. 

The nine-year-old is among the slickest jumpers in the business and his best form clearly puts him bang in the picture, but this is a big ask after a year on the sidelines. 

His win in the 2023 edition was achieved after 203 days off, but he had been beaten first time out in each of his three previous campaigns in Ireland, including when also fifth in this contest in 2022. 

Encouragingly, Brassil’s small pool of runners this autumn has yielded a couple of winners, although they have been racefit. 

There are grey areas with Fastorslow after a year away, but there can be no dispute he is in his element here. 

The only viable contender with a recent run under his belt is Heart Wood, a 20-1 chance trained by Henry De Bromhead. That must count for something but perhaps not much nowadays. 

Heart Wood won as he was entitled too in Grade Three company over 2m 7f here last month, when favoured by the conditions of the race. That at least went some way to erasing the memory of a poor run at Fairyhouse in the spring when he pulled off his right fore shoe in running. 

The Robcour-owned seven-year-old had previously chased home Fact To File in the Ryanair Chase, without being any threat to him, and had also finished a respectful distance behind him in the Irish Gold Cup after a near-miss in the Drinmore. 

He’s a solid 162-rated horse representing a stable that has been in fine fettle this autumn (26 winners since the start of last month) but he will surely need several of the principal protagonists to underperform if he is to give De Bromhead a first win in this contest. 

Senecia is becoming a bit of a fixture in Graded races for trainer Vincent Laurence, often outrunning fancy odds. 

He landed the Grade Two Webster Cup at Navan last season at the main expense of El Fabiolo when 50-1, having previously been a close third in the Fortria Chase at 200-1. And on his latest start he chased home Il Etait Temps in the Clonmel Oil Chase at 22-1.  

This would represent his toughest assignment yet and he’s chalked up at 100-1. With no obvious prospects of picking up any slices of the prize money pie, it would not be a big surprise if he stays at home. 

Another superb race in store, with several of the sport's biggest names crossing swords. The 11-4 on offer about GAELIC WARRIOR makes more appeal than the 5-4 offered about Fact To File. Of the outsiders, Heart Wood makes most appeal after his win at the track last month.