Grand National: five mudlarks who are 20/1 or bigger

A wet winter has become a wet spring and consequently the Randox at on Saturday seems certain to be run on soft ground or worse.

The word “heavy” has featured in the going description for several days now and plenty more rain seems on the way, although thankfully the forecast suggests better weather between Thursday and Saturday. It’s likely to be a case of too little, too late, for those hoping for a sound surface rather than a squelchy one.

The last time the mud was properly flying for the big race was in 2018 when Tiger Roll held off Pleasant Company in a stirring finish. The going was officially heavy that day, although Timeform assessed it as soft.

Two years earlier, Rule The World had won on soft, just like Numbersixvalverde ten years before him. You may recognise a pattern here: Irish trained-horses do well when silks end up needing an extended spin in the washing machine.

Only three genuine slogs spring to mind in the past 30 years. Red Marauder won in bottomless conditions in 2001, when only one other horse completed without mishap, while Earth Summit led home six finishers in 1998, as did Miinnehoma in 1994.

Things have changed since then with the distance of the race shortened and all the fences modified. But one thing out of Aintree’s control is what Mother Nature throws at them.

Some horses thrive on deep ground, when the race tempo is usually slower but the emphasis is even more on jumping and stamina. When the going gets tough, the tough get going . . . especially if they’ve got a relatively light weigh to carry.

For instance, in 2018, six of the first seven home carried 10st 13lb or less, including the first three home. Similarly, the first three home in 2016 were burdened with 10st 6lb or under, with 12 of the first 13 carrying 10st 11lb or less.

In 2006, the only one of nine finishers to carry more than 10st 11lb was Hedgehunter, a former winner of the race who an exceptional operator around .

Red Marauder (10st 11lb) and Smarty (10st) were the pair who ended up having the 2001 renewal to themselves, while the six to finish in Miinnehoma’s year all carried 10st 8lb or less.

So, if your National fancy is proven in the mud and has got a light weight, then so much the better. Below are five runners on Saturday better qualified than most to cope with testing conditions. 

Runs on heavy ground (according to Timeform): 7. Wins: 4. Weight: 10st 7lb. Odds: 22/1.

It was love at first sight for when it came to the mud. She made her debut on heavy going at Punchestown and skipped clear to win easily. Timeform estimate she’s run on heavy going another six occasions, with another three wins being achieved. Her other efforts on such a surface include a 16-length romp at Clonmel, a valiant second in the Troytown Chase at Navan and then a personal best at the Cheltenham Festival last time when she won the Mares’ Chase. Her little brother, Inothewayurthinkin, is another confirmed mudlark, with all his best efforts having been on soft or heavy going. 

Runs on heavy ground: 4. Wins: 3. Weight: 10st 6lb. Odds: 33/1.

A strike-rate of 75 per cent on heavy ground means title-chasing trainer Dan Skelton won’t be grumbling about the turf in Merseyside for his mare, who clearly revels in such conditions. made her debut at Wetherby on heavy ground and waltzed home by 30 lengths, and her next two outings on the surface resulted in two more wide-margin wins – by nine lengths at Bangor and then 13 lengths at Warwick (against good company). “She wants slow ground and stays well,” Skelton confirmed afterwards. Galia Des Lieaux was below-par on deep going at Exeter last time but, whatever the reason, it certainly wasn’t the ground to blame. 

Runs on heavy ground: 6. Wins: 3. Weight: 11st 11lb. Odds: 20/1.

The 2022 National winner seems versatile regards the ground but his big wins two years ago came on easy going and heavy conditions are clearly no bother. Timeform suggest his form figures under such conditions is 311412. And his other four career wins have all included the word “soft” in the going description. He’s got a big weight to carry, which history tells us is a negative, but he should be fresh after a light campaign. 

Runs on heavy ground: 5. Wins: 3. Weight: 11st 7lb. Odds: 20/1.

Put up one of the performances of the season on heavy ground at Chepstow over Christmas when he trounced 18 rivals in the Welsh Grand National. Most of the runners that day were unable to cope with conditions (all bar five runners pulled up) but galloped on relentlessly to win by 34 lengths. That was far from the first time that he had shown himself to be something of a mud monster, winning by 59 lengths at Fontwell on another occasion. The problem for his would-be-backers is that the handicapper, predictably, has caned him for his Chepstow triumph, raising him 16lb in the ratings. 

Runs on heavy ground: 8. Wins: 3. Weight: 10st 6lb. Odds: 100/1.

Plenty of other intended National runners have proven themselves on heavy ground, including Corach Rambler, the favourite, but gets slot five because one of his three victories in the mud came over the Grand National fences in December when he powered home in the Becher Chase, winning at the main expense of Coko Beach (who himself is 3/13 on a heavy surface and is set to re-oppose). Chambard’s past three runs on similar going have all ended in hefty defeats but that means he’s been ignored in the betting.