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Free horse racing tips for Monday: Dreamer looks real thing

Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023

The final make-up of the Cazoo Derby will become clearer early Monday afternoon when we get the five-day declarations.

Buckaroo, Lysander and Sir Bob Parker seem likely defectors but there are 18 others still entered, plus Nations Pride and El Habeeb are likely to be supplemented. If the last-named horse has got you scratching your head, then click here.

There’s absolutely no suggestion that Emily Upjohn, the Cazoo Oaks favourite, will be among the supplementary entries, which is a pity as she would undoubtedly be a leading contender. Certainly, it would be a surprise if she were not in the first three in the betting.

The last of six fillies to win the Derby was in 1916 and none have run in the race since Cape Verdi, who had previously landed the 1000 Guineas, started 11-4 favourite in 1998. Her heavy defeat has probably not encouraged similar tilts, although she was a palpable non-stayer and never run over the trip again.

Emily Upjohn wins the Musidora (Photo: Focusonracing)

Clearly, winning or being placed in the Oaks looks great on the page of any broodmare but surely that goes double for the Derby. And racing is all about risk and reward.

I can understand why Coolmore, via Aidan O’Brien, would never entertain the prospect. They are in the business of creating stallions and usually have five or six colts who fit the Derby profile. Charlie Appleby and Godolphin are becoming increasingly similar. It would not make sense for them to jeopardise a potentially lucrative stud career with a filly from within who can produce only one foal a year.

But the same cannot be said for everyone else.

John Gosden has no Derby runner but is responsible for Emily Upjohn plus the Oaks second favourite in Nashwa. They are in different ownership and the safe play for the respective owners is to undoubtedly head for the Oaks, especially with a £75,000 supplementary fee to be paid for heading to the Derby. But the bolder move, especially with Emily Upjohn, would have been for her connections to roll the dice and go for the sport’s biggest prize.

Why not? Unusually, there are no Group One winners in the premier Classic next weekend with Desert Crown (official rating of 117) and Stone Age (115) having the best form according to the handicapper. The latter ran in five races last year and was beaten every time.

The imposing Emily Upjohn, who would certainly measure up to any of the colts in a physical sense, is unbeaten in three starts and heads to Epsom rated 110. In addition, she would also get 3lb from all her rivals. The assessor clearly thinks she is in the same ballpark as the pair who dominate the Derby betting and I don’t think he, or anyone else, would suggest she’s reached her ceiling.

Gosden said on Monday that he believes Emily Upjohn is in the same league as Taghrooda, who lined up for the Oaks in 2014 with a rating of 103 and returned to Clarehaven rated 13lb higher after an emphatic success. She then trounced the boys in the King George (rated 125 after that) before signing off her career with a third in the Arc from a horrible draw.

And this got me thinking as to how many recent Oaks winners might have won the Derby had they lined up.

Taghrooda would probably have had her work cut out – she would have bumped into Australia but would surely have been second at worst – but I fancy Snowfall, a dazzling 16-length Oaks winner, would have gone close last year, plus Love 12 months before her when Serpentine prevailed. Enable versus Wings Of Eagles in 2017? Minding against Harzand in 2016? You’d have to think the fillies would have come out on top in receipt of weight, or at the very least made the frame.

If Emily Upjohn were to run in the Derby and come up short, she would still be able to contest other Group One races against her own sex in such as the Nassau Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, plus the Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day.

The big fee to join the Derby party is clearly not insignificant but the win-and-you-are-in Blue Riband Trial at Epsom in April is there for those who do a bit of forward thinking.

Anyway, Emily Upjohn is not going to be supplemented and I’ve rambled on enough, so on with a few tips. None on my Monday selections are trading at fancy odds, so I’ll be going down the multiple route and sticking them in a Yankee. The Racing TV cameras will capture action in three countries, with Redcar and Cartmel in the afternoon followed by Ayr and Ballinrobe in the evening.

6.10 Windsor: Pure Dreamer at a general 2-1

Finished: 1stSP: 6/4

Richard Hannon’s four-year-old proved expensive to follow when failing to win in five starts as a two-year-old but has returned from 19 months off, having been gelded in the interim, looking much more the finished article.

He showed a great turn of foot to win on his belated return at Lingfield – overhauling a rival who got first run and looked home for all money – and produced a similar burst to follow up at Leicester after again being set a bit to do. He was being clawed back a bit late on, but only because he’d put in such a shift mid-race.

Pure Dreamer has been pushed up an aggregate of 8lb for his wins but he’s a sprinter on the up and can complete his hat-trick. Spring Bloom and Concierge look the pair most likely to chase him home.

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7.00 Ayr: Tilsitt at 4-1 with William Hill

Finished: 1stSP: 5/2

Tilsitt has won or been placed on his past seven visits to this track and another bold bid is on the cards after his luckless fourth at Musselburgh last time.

He was effectively all dressed up with nowhere to go that day and, by the time he got some daylight, it was too late.

Tommy G got the rub of the green that day and finished about three lengths ahead of him. It surely would have been a different story had Tilsitt got any kind of a run and, with a 3lb pull, he can turn the tables.

Arctic Emperor heads the market after his win at Newmarket last time, but the front-runner got the run of things that day against three rivals. He’s been beaten off this higer mark (87) every time he’s run off it and looks vulnerable to me.

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7.30 Ayr: Rory at 5-2 with bet365

Amie Waugh gave him a peach when pouncing late on him at Hamilton last week and, as that was restricted to apprentices, he is able to race off the same mark here.

Things need to drop his way as he can be slow away and needs to be played late, but it’s not hard to imagine Gowanbuster, who invariably goes hard in front, teeing things up for him.

Impressor was not winning out of turn here last time but he was snapping a 21-race losing sequence that day. Up 4lb and back on quicker ground, he’s not an obvious type to follow-up.

7.40 Windsor: King Of The Kippax at 6-4 with bet365

Finished: 2ndSP: 8/13

This doesn’t look the strongest of races and it will be disappointing if King Of The Kippax fails to deliver.

He cut little ice in four starts as a two-year-old, mostly over 6f, but looked a different proposition upped to 1m 2f after a gelding operation at Leicester last week, when staying-on well from off the pace to be beaten half a length by the reliable Aryaah (pair clear).

King Of Kippax runs off the same mark here with James Doyle on his back for the first time. Provided this doesn’t come too quick, he should go one better in what looks a weaker race.

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