To appeal, or not to appeal, that is the question? In the case of
Frankie Dettori it was something of an odds-on certainty and on Tuesday he will find out if his roll of the dice yields a double six or ends in him losing more chips.
Had the racing fare during this ten-day window been nothing out of the ordinary then perhaps Dettori would have shrugged his shoulders and popped back to his native Sardinia for a few days on the beach.
Watch the incident that led to Dettori being banned for ten days
But, instead, his participation in some of the biggest races of the summer is under threat and he is gambling on winning a reprieve.
Never mind the £1.25 million
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, for which Cracksman and Coronet remain engaged, there is also the small matter of the five-day Qatar
Goodwood Festival, which begins on Tuesday.
His rides there are set to include Gold Cup hero Stradivarius, a general 4-6 for the Goodwood Cup on the opening day, and the unbeaten Frankel colt Without Parole, the 13-8 favourite for the Sussex Stakes 24 hours later.
The most charismatic jockey in the world will be hoping the three-person Panel reverse - or at least reduce - the punishment given by Newmarket stewards.
If it is cut to four days it would enable him to defer the Group One days and take part in all the showpiece races. His fate will be decided by David Fish QC (Chair), Diana Powles and Anthony Connell.
Dettori’s moment of carelessness lasted no more than second or two but the final chapter in the story is likely to last considerably longer.
It is a rehearing and, as such, the Panel will start from scratch. Numerous replays from every conceivable angle will be screened and a plethora of explanations and interpretations, as to what occurred, are likely to be expressed.
What happened at Newmarket, including the length of the ban, split plenty within the sport.
For instance, former jockey George Baker, now a regular Racing UK pundit, said immediately afterwards the ban was “a shocking decision” and that he was confident an appeal would result in clemency.
By contrast, Paul Mulrennan, the Racing UK ambassador, said in his weekly column last Friday that Dettori’s riding “didn’t look great” and that his “team are going to have to earn their money”.
As with just about everything in racing, you can bet on the outcome. Paddy Power offer 8-13 on the ban being reduced and 11-10 that is upheld. They also quote 33-1 against it being increased and 50-1 completely quashed.
“Clearly, Frankie’s people think he has a strong case and while we obviously don’t believe they’ll manage to completely wipe the slate, we do think the ten days is very likely to be shortened,” Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said.
Dettori can take some encouragement from the fact that six jockeys have appealed against bans this year and five of them have been successful, or part successful, albeit under a range of circumstances.
The case that bears the closest comparison to that of his own involved Kieran O’Neill, banned ten days for careless riding aboard Firenze Rosa at Windsor on May 7.
Stewards on the day found that, about 3½ furlongs out, O’Neill had drifted right, when insufficiently clear, resulting in Dreamboat Annie clipping heels and Jason Watson being unseated.
Dettori's tweet from Sardinia after Royal Ascot last month
However, the Panel reduced the ban to seven days because it concluded that although the consequences of O’Neill’s carelessness was serious, the degree of carelessness which led to the incident was towards the lower end of the scale.
In the past five years, by my reckoning, only one other jockey, Oisin Murphy, has appealed against a ten-day ban for careless riding.
His crime came was aboard Ballynanty at Newcastle last year. PJ McDonald was unseated in the incident and a remorseful Murphy lost his appeal.
In total, 11 jockeys have appealed against ten-day bans in the past five years for a variety of misdemeanours. In four instances, the appeals were dismissed. In the other seven, the bans were partly reduced or quashed altogether.
JOCKEYS WHO HAVE APPEALED BANS THIS YEAR:
July 12: Silvestre De Sousa - seven days at Chelmsford for failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures to obtain the best possible placing. The ban stood and De Sousa’s deposit not returned.
June 28: Martin Harley - nine days for failing to obtain the best possible placing at Leicester. Appeal upheld in part and ban reduced to seven days.
June 14: Andrew Mullen - five days for careless riding at Ripon. Appeal dismissed but the Panel recognised that it was an arguable appeal, so Mullen’s deposit was returned.
May 17: Kieran O’Neill - ten days for careless riding at Windsor. Reduced to seven days.
February 15: Tom Marquand - three days at Southwell for weighing in too heavy. Downgraded to a caution.
February 14: Gavin Sheehan - four days for remounting at Towcester. Downgraded to a caution after “a truly exceptional case”.