Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby: five key questions

Is Auguste Rodin a ‘good thing’ in Sunday’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby? Tom Thurgood asks five big questions ahead of the big Classic from the Curragh, live on Racing TV.

First published on Wednesday 28 June*

The remarkable Aidan O’Brien bids for a 100th European Classic triumph in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday, and you’d have to be fairly brave to bet against him given the Ballydoyle maestro has already won the race 14 times and saddles one of his more compelling recent contenders in Epsom hero Auguste Rodin. The Deep Impact colt will be a very short price indeed to become the 19th horse to do the Derby double.

There aren’t many obvious omissions close to home on Ryan Moore’s illustrious CV, yet the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is one of them and - on paper - this might be something of a ‘tap-in’ to put that right this weekend. Moore has ridden seven favourites from 10 rides in the race so far, and only one of those mounts went off bigger than 11-4.

Yet his Irish Derby misses so far just seem one of those anomalies so far. Backing Moore blind in all Listed and Group races he’s ridden in at the Curragh would have actually yielded a level stakes profit (+£23.78) and the jockey is enjoying a notably good campaign – indeed, he’s never operated at a better strike-rate in a year so far (at least 50 rides) in both Britain (24%) and Ireland (40%).

We look at the closer merits of Auguste Rodin and more in five key questions ahead of the big race. Enjoy all three days of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Festival from this Friday live on Racing TV.

Excuse the somewhat pun here.

The flatter terrain of Irish Flat headquarters is certainly more of a conventional test of a Classic colt than the unique contours of Epsom and connections of the vanquished – and punters supporting them this time – will hope that things might prove a bit more open on the expanses of the Curragh.

Already connections of White Birch have pointed to this, believing their star performer may get into more a rhythm this weekend, while Sprewell suffered interference at a late stage at Epsom and it’s feasible to suggested that the impact of his loss of momentum may have been magnified by the make-up of the Downs.

The principal thing you might be pointing to is the conventional wisdom that the Curragh is a stiffer mile and a half than Epsom, so the stouter stayers at the trip may play a more prominent role this time – especially since the finishing speed of this year’s Derby at Epsom was notably quick and those settled in behind didn’t have a chance to genuinely figure.

Yet, since 2010, the median Derby winning time on good ground or faster is 2m 33.45s at Epsom and 2m 33.63s at the Curragh, so we could be looking into track configurations and their suitability for different types a bit too much as far as recent winning times are concerned.

Historically, Derby winners have fared well in the Curragh Classic – 10 Epsom winners have contested the Irish equivalent since 2010 and six have won with only Ruler Of The World (2013) not hitting the places. Runners that finished in the first four at Epsom have filled the places at the Curragh 60% of the time.

The Epsom form has already been given some varnish by runner-up King Of Steel romping home in the King Edward VII Stakes with the sixth Waipiro also winning at Royal Ascot next time out, landing the Hampton Court Stakes down in trip.

Whether the exact order finishing order will be maintained from Epsom remains to be seen, with the principal question being perhaps whether White Birch can confirm form with Sprewell. The latter suffered interference at a crucial stage, but his jockey was able to keep moving forward and wasn’t genuinely stopped in his run to these pair of eyes. All the same, White Birch came from miles back but could build up momentum unchecked with plenty of running room down the middle of the Epsom straight. The grey did have nearly two lengths on Sprewell at the line despite coming from significantly further back and I would have him as outright second favourite.

Aidan O’Brien is no stranger to turning up mob-handed for the Curragh Classic – bar last year’s aberration of only saddling Tuesday – a filly – in the big race, the trainer has sent out at least four runners in all of the previous seven years and over 100 runners in total over the last 25 years.

Adelaide River (33-1) is the shortest of the other four Ballydoyle contenders currently and the Australia colt boasted good juvenile form – not far behind Dubai Mile and Arrest in Group One company at Saint-Cloud – but he’s been beaten far enough in both starts this term and has finished weakly on both occasions. He may continue in the similar pace-forcing duties adopted at Epsom. San Antonio might be seen to best effect at shorter than 12 furlongs while the Listed race Peking Opera and Covent Garden contested last time isn’t especially compelling in this context.

This once-raced maiden winner stands out among the 11 contenders still in the running in what looks a bold statement from trainer Dermot Weld.

This colt is certainly bred for the top, being by Kingman out of Nightime – the Classic winner bred by Weld’s mother and one that has produced Group One winners Zhukova and Ghaiyyath. That horse won the Coronation Cup and more siblings have won over a mile and a half, but they are by stallions with a greater staying influence and you couldn’t take it on absolute trust that this Kingman colt would relish the trip at this stage.

It's a obvious thing to say, but to win by over seven lengths on debut in Ireland must mark out a decent performer and he was strong in the market before his romp at Gowran, while he looked fairly professional in making the running albeit green in the late stages. He hit the line strongly.

Since 1997, only three horses have rocked up in the irish Derby after one previous career run and all were trained by Aidan O’Brien; Book Of Kings fared best with sixth of 10 in 2004.

Weld himself has an OK record in this race (two winners and a runner-up from 20 runners) but horses with the profile of Knight To King generally haven’t figured. Since 2003, Weld has run 12 horses in the Irish Derby that have not previously run at Group or Listed level with the a sixth-place the best result and five finishing plum last. Collectively, these 12 have only beaten 35 of a total of 141 rivals home (24.8% rivals beaten).

For all the notable caveat about the prominence of Epsom form and the Derby principals this time hard to knock, Up And Under is worth a look all the same and could prove over-priced at 14-1.

The Lope De Vega colt is closely matched with White Bitch on their Ballysax running and he ran well behind Sprewell next time in the Group Three Derby Trial Stakes, again over 10 furlongs at Leopardstown. The pace notably slackened before the winding turn for home on that occasion and he wasn’t best placed at the back, accelerating into a quickening pace in front of him yet still hitting the line pretty well.

He's been off for a while and has his stamina to ultimately prove – he has travelled notably strongly the last twice - but he’s shown the class so far to suggest he could play the kind of role that is not reflected by his odds currently.