Dave Nevison Saturday tips: best bets at Newmarket and Ascot

A strongly run race on soft ground at the Rowley Mile is going to be a serious test and Ashariba has shown that she is really well suited by soft ground plus has demonstrated reserves of courage to win three handicaps already this season. 

David Menuisier’s filly gets this trip really well (she won over a furlong further on the all-weather last time) and passed the whole field when she won at Leicester earlier in the year, so she could be very well suited by the likely pace scenario.

I can see her flying out of the dip in this, despite having gone up in the weights a fair bit.

Typical Woman has hit form in spectacular fashion recently and clearly gets on very well with 7lb claimer Ryan Kavanagh, who has been on board for her past two wins, and the combination can complete a hat-trick here.

For a five-year-old to win by 17 lengths after looking pretty much exposed obviously calls the form into some question, but she followed up that Newbury win with a victory at Newmarket's July course, so it wasn’t a fluke. 

Kavanagh has been riding winners for other trainers and is clearly emerging as a real talent, so his claim will be valuable here but, given the style of her recent successes, Typical Woman stlll looks well treated off a 9lb higher mark.

The booking of Jamie Spencer for Carrytheone really catches my eye as I believe that this is a horse and rider partnership that is made for each other. 

I have just about got over licking my wounds after Carrytheone’s fourth in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket in July when he got going far too late under Ryan Moore and passed most of the field in effortless style, and thankfully secured the place money at least! 

Although he has won a handicap at Chepstow subsequently, Carrytheone has continued not to enjoy the best of luck in running and I believe it is these big-field cavalry charges that are always likely to bring out the best of him.

Spencer is second to none in this scenario, so hopefully Carrytheone can land this heritage event and reward his patient backers at last.

Princess Alex won twice in the Spring, including once on soft ground, so is clearly well suited by these conditions. 

She was highly tried after those wins, and was found wanting, but she has dropped back down to a mark just 2lb higher than her last win and showed the benefit of the ease in grade when returning to form at Beverley last time. 

Her trainer, Karl Burke, is in spectacular form in big Saturday handicaps this Autumn and although this race doesn’t compare to a Cambridgeshire, or an Ayr Gold Cup, it is tough to see his runners not going well wherever they are entered this weekend.