Your ultimate guide to the 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

A total of 18 horses remain in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after Monday’s forfeit stage.

Britain’s sole challenger at this stage is a big outsider in Sunway, but the cavalry is coming. Barring accidents, the Ralph Beckett-trained Bluestocking is expected to be supplemented on Wednesday and she will have her supporters after her determined success in the Prix Vermeille last time.

Andre Fabre, seeking an incredible ninth triumph in the race, is responsible for a third of the home team’s nine possibles, including Sosie, the ante-post favourite.

Aidan O’Brien has left five in the mix but hopes that Auguste Rodin will take part are surely receding, with the going at Longchamp on Monday described as “very soft”.

Japan’s quest for an Arc winner goes on. Shin Emperor is their representative this time, although it’s not straightforward with their legendary jockey, Yutaka Take, is pencilled in to partner Al Riffa for Joseph O’Brien. The Japanese racing public may well adopt Al Riffa as one of their own for the day.

Below is a guide to all the possibles, but first a few thoughts on the draw, which will be revealed on Friday. I’ll publish a verdict once we know the final field, draw and have more of an idea of what the ground is going to be like. 

Where do you want to be drawn in a big-field Arc? Logic decrees that those drawn low will be at an advantage as they can stick to the rail and go the shortest route, while those drawn high face an uncomfortable choice between staying wide or using up early petrol to get across into a better position. 

However, it’s rarely that simple. Those drawn lowest run the risk of getting hemmed in, while those higher can find more room to find stride and manouevre. The only winner from stall 1 this century has been the brilliant Zarkava in 2008, although Westover was runner-up from that berth last year. 

The best horse usually wins and, if he or she doesn’t, it’s not usually because of where they started. Perhaps the one recent exception came in 2018 when Enable got a lovely prominent passage around from stall 6 in the 19-runner line-up while the fast-finishing runner-up, Sea Of Class, had a torrid time from 15. The latter would have been ahead in another stride or two. 

Enable (Evens) was becoming the fifth horse this century to win from stall 6 after Solemia (33-1), Sea The Stars (4-6), Dylan Thomas (11-2) and Hurricane Run (11-4). Alpinista (6-1) also won from that golden gate two years ago. Forgive the trainer of whoever is drawn in stall 6 humming Iron Maiden’s The Number Of The Beast on his way into Longchamp. 

Double-figure draws can be overcome. Dalakhani won from the widest stall of all (14) in 2003, while Golden Horn also won from there in 2015 after staying wide through the early stages. Treve hacked up from 15 in 2013, while Torquator Tasso won from 12 in 2021. And Ofevre looked like bolting up from stall 18 in 2012, only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Let’s cut to the chase: this horse is seriously underestimated in the betting. And part-owner Masaaki Matsushima has booked Japanese legend Yutaka Take for the ride, so don’t expect chunkier odds on the Parimutuel. 

Everything Al Riffa achieved as a two-year-old looked like being a bonus because he was a big shell of a horse, yet he still won the National Stakes at The Curragh. He promised to be one of the stars of last season after that Group One success but hiccups at the start and end of the season meant we saw him only twice. 

However, he ran a belter on the second occasion when beaten three quarters of a length by Ace Impact. The winner won with something to spare, admittedly, but would go on to cap a flawless career with a superb success in the Arc. 

This season, Al Riffa has stood up well to a fuller campaign around the world. He was an encouraging fourth in a bunched finish to the Prix Ganay at Longchamp on his return (almost certainly not fully wound up) before finding the combination of firm ground, nine furlongs and hold-up tactics backfiring in Saratoga. 

A month later, he returned to European shores and got within a length of Derby winner City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse. That race was rather rubbished at the time, but the form has more than stood up. 

City Of Troy has gone on to win the Juddmonte International, while Ghostwriter (third) was a good third at York and beaten only two lengths behind Economics in the Irish Champion Stakes, while See The Fire (a distant fourth) was touched off by Opera Singer in the Nassau Stakes before taking a pattern prize at York. 

And the stamina-bred Al Riffa, of course, has since finally been unleashed over a mile and a half in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppergarten and scooted up by five lengths. Germany’s most renowned Group One race represented low-lying fruit, but he devoured the final 300 metres and clearly relished the extra yardage. 

The right-handed track at Hoppergarten, with its hedges on the inside, provides a good rehearsal for the Arc and four horses who have crossed the line first in it – Carroll House (1988), Marienbard (2002), Danedream (2011), and Torquator Tasso (2020) – have gone on to glory in France. Alpanista also won in it in 2021 before taking the Arc two years later. 

Al Riffa has surely been wanting 12 furlongs all along. The son of Wootton Bassett is out of a Galileo mare, Love On My Mind, whose siblings include top-class stayer Mizzou (second in a Gold Cup at Royal Ascot among other things). She herself was out of a stamina-blessed dam. 

At 55, Take’s best days are behind him but he looked lean and mean in Ireland recently, when he dropped into O'Brien's yard for a sit on Al Riffa. 

Eighteen years after famously not winning on Deep Impact, it would be some story if Take emerged from leftfield and took the spoils for a brilliant young trainer 24 years his junior. 

The door is open for Auguste Rodin to line up, when it seemed his final destination was instead going to be the Japan Cup. I suppose it still maybe, just with an additional big mission along the way. 

Aidan O’Brien has said the potential U-turn is because the ground at Longchamp may be better than anticipated. But it clearly indicates, too, that the six-time Group One winner has taken his narrow defeat in last month’s Irish Champion Stakes in his stride and that he has been kept ticking along in the meantime. 

Auguste Rodin seemed to have that Leopardstown prize in his grasp for a second time when briefly hitting the front from off the pace, but the exciting Economics fended him off by a neck in a pulsating finish. He had Shin Emperor and Los Angeles behind, but will he even be able to confirm that form? The extra distance is going to be of no extra benefit to him, whereas the other pair seem sure to appreciate the extra yardage. 

The handicappers will tell you his two best performances have come over a mile and a half on fast terrain – in the Derby (his official rating rose to 124) and Breeders’ Cup Turf (hit a career high of 125) – but three of his worst runs have also come over the trip (twice in the King George, plus in the Sheema Classic). 

Regardless, the Longchamp executive will be delighted at the prospect of him being in the cast as his CV includes a Derby, an Irish Derby, Breeders’ Cup Turf and Prince of Wales’s Stakes. But the rain is going to have to stay away. 

As things stand, most racing fans will probably remember his bad days before his good ones. An Arc victory would surely tilt things the other way, but we probably need a treble here. Dry ground, the best version of Auguste Rodin turning up, and others to underachieve. 

Three-year-old fillies had a golden spell in the Arc between 2008 and 2017 when Zarkava, Danedream, Treve and Enable all hit the jackpot. They were an exceptional quartet who probably didn’t even need their fillies’ allowance to prevail. 

Aventure has also shown herself to be a classy customer, but the daughter of Sea The Stars is not in the same bracket. She’s come up short in both her Group One assignments this year, albeit emerging with plenty of credit. 

She showed a good turn of foot to hit the front 150 yards out in the French Oaks at Chantilly in mid-June, only to then be pounced on herself and end up finishing a close fourth. And last time she had a good tussle with Bluestocking in the Prix Vermeille, only to come off second best. 

It’s not out of the question she will progress a little more, given she’s had only six races. But she’s going to need a big chunk of improvement. 

The Juddmonte filly was not among the initial entries in mid-May, perhaps not surprising given she had failed to get head in front in six races the previous campaign. 

She seems sure to be supplemented on Wednesday, though, after gaining her second Group One success of the season in the Prix Veremeille over the Arc course and distance on Trials Day this month. She was game in getting the better of Aventure and clocked a much quicker time than the colts in the Prix Niel, too, for all the races were run at different tempos. 

Earlier in the season, she was also an exciting winner of the Pretty Polly at The Curragh, clawing back Emily Upjohn after that mare had got first run on her. 

Her two defeats this term have come against the boys, when runner-up to Goliath in the King George, and when fourth to City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International. She had no excuses on the first occasion, but possibly found dropping back to ten furlongs against her at York. 

Regardless of those reverses, last season’s frustrations, when she seemed to get worried out of things on several occasions, including in the Fillies & Mares at Ascot in October, have been forgotten. 

It has been 16 years since a Prix Vermeille winner (Zarkava) followed up in the Arc, and, for all her attributes, the chances are that Bluestocking will also fall short. However, this represents something of a free roll of the dice, and she’s certainly earned her place for a trainer/jockey combination enjoying another fabulous year. 

His fine fifth last year in a steadily run renewal needs marking up as it came just a fortnight after his St Leger triumph at Doncaster. 

He looked just the type to return another year with even stronger credentials but he’s had an underwhelming season. Perhaps those exertions last autumn have left a mark. 

You can give him a pass on his comeback fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot – although the market did not indicate he would be rusty – but he then scrambled home against inferior rivals in a Group Three at The Curragh before beating home just one other finisher in the Prix Foy. He got a soft lead that day but was readily brushed aside. 

It's possible that a horse routinely held up in his races last year resented those front-running tactics. But the best horses tend to overcome adversity and he simply left the impression he is not in the same form as 12 months ago. 

Sometimes, the devil can be in the detail. 

Moments after Delius had kept on well to split Sosie and Look De Vega in the Prix Niel, his jockey gave him a generous pat down on the neck and gave one of his ears a loving tug. It was usually the kind of behaviour reserved for winners. Had he been wearing a microphone, you wonder if he we might have heard him utter: “Well done, lad, that’s just the job for next month”. 

The formbook tells us that is Sosie 2 Delius 0 but that scoreline may be a little misleading. 

Each time, Delius was staying on stoutly at the end of races run at a steady tempo. He gives me the impression that he is yearning for a truer test and that, when granted one, he will take his form up to another level. 

Unraced at two, the Frankel colt won each of his first three races in taking style from off the pace. 

The pick of those wins was when brushing aside the useful Saganti in a Group Three contest over 1m 4f at Chantilly in mid-June. 

He looks the best of the nine foals that his dam has produced and Jean-Claude Rouget can be relied on to squeeze the most out of him. I would not be surprised if he turned the tables on Sosie and is on the premises when it matters most. 

This prolific colt was supplemented for last year’s Arc, having won the German Derby and Prix Niel earlier in the campaign. However, he made little impact after being held up from a widish draw, eventually finishing 11th of the 15 runners. 

He's back for another crack, booking his ticket with victory in the Group One Grosser Preis Von Baden at Baden-Baden at the start of this month. That was a race Germany’s past two Arc winners, Danedream and Torquator Tasso, won before triumphing in France. 

It's not easy to enthuse about him from a form perspective, though, as he won at the main expense of the William Haggas-trained Dubai Honour at Baden-Baden. That six-year-old is not the force he once was and had previously finished a well-beaten seventh in the King George. 

His connections have said this will be his final race, but it’s difficult to see him bowing out with a bang. 

That said, he’s been better than ever this term, springing a surprise in the Prix Ganay at Longchamp in late April before being beaten under a length behind the prolific Mqse De Sevigne in the Prix D’Ispahan. 

Having been off almost four months, he was runner-up in a Group Three back at Longchamp last time, though it was disappointing he could not get to grips with eight-year-old Certain Lad, trained by Jack Channon. 

The other negative for Haya Zark is that he will be belatedly reverting to a mile and a half, having looked well served by shorter this term. 

It was ten years ago that the brilliant filly Treve carried the silks of Al Shaqab to a second stunning success in the Arc. A decade later, Look De Vega is another leading contender for them. 

This imposing son of Lope De Vega is cut from a different cloth but belied his inexperience when a decisive winner of the Prix du Jockey Club in June. Testing conditions yielded a slowish time, but Look De Vega showed a smart turn of foot to put his seal on things and the form adds up well enough. 

He had won two minor races beforehand but looked more than at home at the top table, albeit a favourable draw helped him get a handy position from the outset. 

Look De Vega then skipped the height of summer before resurfacing in the Prix Niel three months later. I doubt there was anything sinister about his absence, with the Arc at the top of his agenda.. 

He looked in good shape at Longchamp and, faced by four rivals, Ronan Thomas didn’t hesitate to make the running on him. That did not smack of a jockey concerned about a potential lack of match fitness. 

However, Look De Vega was unable to respond when Sosie headed him early in the straight and he surrendered second spot to Delius, too, inside the final furlong. 

His connections did their best to put a positive spin on things, suggesting he was was not at his peak. But it looked like stamina was an issue, even in a slow-run race, and it must be a nagging doubt for his supporters that his three siblings have been at their best up to 1m 2f. 

It says much for Coolmore’s global ambitions that their star Arc candidate, City Of Troy, is instead heading straight to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Auguste Rodin may or may not run, while it seems no thought has been given to the unbeaten Jan Brueghel (Melbourne Cup) being thrown into the mix, while half an idea about running the outstanding stayer Kyprios (Prix Du Cadran) has been abandoned. 

Instead, Los Angeles has been touted as their No 1 in Paris. He has had a productive year and for a Camelot, whose stock can have the odd quirk, he has looked fairly straightforward, although he can get sweaty and did show some reluctance at the stalls before finishing third in the Derby. 

He went two better in gritty fashion in the Irish equivalent the following month before defying a penalty in an exciting edition of the Great Voltigeur at York. 

All the evidence pointed to him being tailor-made for the St Leger at that stage, but Aidan O’Brien had the Town Moore Classic covered with his “B Team” and so instead Los Angeles took his chance in the Irish Champion. 

The drop back in distance never seemed likely to suit but the end-to-end gallop brought his stamina into play and he kept on to be an honourable fourth. Apparently, he can be lazy at home and so with the Arc in mind, you can see the appeal of throwing him into a contest where he would have to engage his brain and feet quite quickly. 

He ended up finishing just behind Shin Emperor and, like that rival, moving back up in trip seems sure to suit. He has one box ticked that Shin Emperor doesn’t – proven ability on slower ground – but does seem open to less improvement than him. 

Overall, Los Angeles rates as being a solid player, rather than spectacular one. But in an ordinary year he should be on the premises. 

There are not too many horses who, like him, have won Group One races at two, three, four and five, but his best days seem behind him. 

He was well-fancied for the 2022 Arc after winning the Irish Champion Stakes beforehand, but he diudn’t get the rub of the green and finished seventh. 

It has been something of a mixed bag since then, and you could easily argue that his win at the top level this term, in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in May, owed much to a masterful ride by Ryan Moore. 

Before that, there had been an odds-on defeat in Saudi Arabia, plus a laboured effort in Dubai. And since that win at Epsom there has been a heavy defeat in the King George, albeit he seemed to be used in something of a pacemaker relay for Auguste Rodin that didn’t work out, and then a failed attempt to reclaim his Irish Champion Stakes crown when equipped with first-time cheekpieces. 

It looks like his window has passed. 

This mare is a five-time Group One winner who arrives on a roll, but the mile and a half trip represents a big stumbling block. 

Her 17 previous runs over the past three years have all been over no further than ten furlongs, with speed rather than stamina looking her principal weapon. 

But she’s from a family who improve with age, and Andre Fabre insists they stay better with time. Her connections have nothing to lose, but plenty to gain, from rolling the dice and giving it a go. 

She’s been in her element at Deauville, winning the past two editions of both the Prix Rothschild (over a mile) and Prix Jean Romanet (over 1m 2f). In between, she edged home in the Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp (1m 1f). She’s not one to dish out drubbings, with none of her wins at the highest level being by more than a length. 

Andre Fabre has talked up her prospects of staying the trip but his actions speak louder than words. This time last year he ran her over a mile in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket, where she chased home Inspiral. And this is a man who finds the Arc all-consuming. 

She will no doubt he held up by her regular rider, Alexis Pouchin, before trying to be smuggled to the front in the closing stages. But I cannot see her staying, even if the ground is not too tacky. There, I’ve said it. 

She doesn’t seem to be in trainer’s plans for the race. Other options for her include the Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday. 

This Camelot colt has established himself as a smart stayer, but he will surely need a quagmire to have any chance on Sunday. The weather forecast suggests that is unlikely. 

Sevenna’s Knight’s three wins at Longchamp this year have been over a minimum of 1m 7f, including last time when he gave weight and a beating to the opposition in the Group Three Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp. The form looks nothing special, at least in terms of an Arc, especially with the runner-up, Harbour Wind, since pummelled by Al Nayyir at Newmarket. 

Six runs over 1m 4f or less for Sevenna Knight have ended in six defeats. He was thumped in the Grand Prix De saint-Cloud when dropping to that trip in late June. His five career wins have all been over 1m 6f or further. 

Andre Fabre must have had his arm twisted by the owners, the Melbourne-based OTI Racing, to go for gold. But it smacks of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. 

So close, yet so far. Japan’s quest for an Arc winner stretches back to 1969 and they must be wondering if it will ever happen after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on several occasions. 

El Condor Pasa was clawed back close home by Montjeu in 1999; the worshipped Deep Impact failed by half a length in 2006 (probably a good job as he was later disqualified); and Nakayama Festa was beaten a head by Workfirce in 2010. And then, of course, their Triple Crown hero Orfevre had glory in his grasp only to throw things away in 2012, before also finishing runner-up a year later. 

Since then, some of Japan’s best middle-distance horses have merely ended up making up the numbers. 

This year, Shin Emperor carries the hopes of a nation and he demands to be high on any shortlist after his staying-on third behind Economics and Auguste Rodin in a strongly-run Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He ended up being beaten only a length. 

That was his first run since he had filled the same position in the Japanese Derby 111 days earlier, when he was again doing all his best work at the finish from off the pace after a mid-race lull had helped those who raced close to the front. 

Yoshito Yahagi, his trainer, said Shin Emperor was only 70-80 per cent ready for his run in Ireland and who are we to question the judgement of a man who has made a habit of snaffling big races all over the globe while doing his best for the purple hat business? 

Moving back up to a mile-and-a-half seems certain to suit him and this is a weaker renewal that that contested by his top-class brother, Sottsass, when he was third behind Waldgeist and Enable in the 2019 Arc, with such as Magical and Ghaiyyath among the support cast. 

The big unknown for Shin Emperor would be softish ground, as he has raced exclusively on fast terrain. However, he doesn’t look to have the kind of skimmy, low action that suggests firm going is essential for him, plus his pedigree offers plenty of encouragement as Sottsass was at home in the mud and most of his dam’s other offspring have coped with soft going, at the very least. 

Having been based in France for a little while now, Shin Emperor will have galloped on easier conditions, so they will not be a shock to his system. In any case, it may not be too testing. It could be that Japan have finally found the ace in their pack. 

Andre Fabre’s eight previous Arc winners have ranged from the average (Sagamix) to the exceptional (Peintre Celebre). His grip has been loosened since 2007 – just one winner since that time – but Sosie heads the betting for him this year after his victory in the Prix Niel last month, when he beat Delius for a second time and reversed earlier form with Look De Vega, the long-time ante-post favourite. 

The Prix Niel has been Fabre’s calming blanket before the Arc with all six of his three-year-old winners of the race running in it (five won, the other was second). If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, but keep in mind, too, that Fabre has had seven other Prix Niel winners who did not go on to Arc glory. 

Sosie put up a commanding rehearsal, fending off his pursuers with something to spare. That was his third win from as many starts at Longchamp, so we know he has an affinity with the place. 

However, he benefitted from racing handily in a steadily-run affair and the winning time was the slowest of the three traditional Arc trials run that afternoon. Bluestocking stopped the clock the best part of 3 seconds quicker in the Prix Vermeille carrying 2lb more, which puts a different slant on what occurred. 

Sosie had previously won the Grand Prix De Paris, when he won at the main expense of Illinois, the subsequent St Leger runner-up, and Delius, who again finished well after getting caught out of his ground. It was another race that favoured speed over stamina, so it was no great surprise he had too many gears for rivals requiring a proper stamina test. 

It may just be a coincidence, but Timeform reckon Sosie has been beaten on the two occasions that he has encountered soft ground or worse. On the second occasion he was two lengths third to Look De Vega in the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly when seemingly having no excuses. 

Maybe he has progressed. Perhaps Look De Vega has regressed. It could be a bit of both. 

It was an attritional renewal of the French Derby in which plenty of runners got pulled out of their comfort zones. Sosie was unable to pick up when it mattered most and the fact he’s seemed to since show improvement over further could be a red herring. 

He’s a son of Sea The Stars but his four siblings have shown their best form at up to 1m 2f. The ground does not look like being too deep and that is a positive for him, but my suspicion is that a more searching test over 1m 4f will leave him vulnerable. 

If you are not in it, you cannot win it, seems to be the mantra of David Menuisier. 

He’s a trainer I’ve got an awful lot of time before, but it’s difficult to see his attacking policy with the French-bred Sunway being rewarded. 

This colt began the season by spurning a couple of good opportunities in Group Three company in France – turned over at odds-on each time – before showing his true colours at the highest level, only to also come up short. 

Sunway chased home Los Angeles in the Irish Derby and was a good fourth (promoted to third) in the St Leger last time. He also has a never-nearer seventh in the French Derby, plus fourth in the King George on his dance card. 

There are plenty of others with stronger credentials, but they said the same when Torquator Tasso won at 80/1 in 2021, didn’t they? Menuisier is one of life’s half-glass full merchants. And his faith in Sunway remains unshakeable. 

This year’s French Oaks runner-up backed up that effort when landing the Prix de Malleret over tbe Arc course and distance the following month. 

At that stage, she was building up a progressive profile that would entitle her to a second look in the big one, but then came her tame effort in the Prix Vermeille last time when she waved the white flag some way out and trailed home seventh. 

Perhaps she was a little short of her best after a two-month break, but suddenly she’s got to bridge a ten-length gap with Bluestocking, and that’s before considering anything less. 

A massive transformation is going to be required for her to scoop the spoils just three weeks later. 

Zarakem operated under the radar in France last year despite winning five races, none of them above Listed level. 

Having changed hands for €500,000 at the end of the year, he’s paid a good chunk of that back, scooping a Group Two prize in the mud at Longchamp on his return before beating all bar Auguste Rodin in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. 

That was his first outing on fast ground and his poor run in the Juddmonte International at York last time on a similar surface, when eased off, suggests it may have left a mark. 

Or perhaps it’s just him? He had impressed when winning on his return at Longchamp in early April, only to fluff his lines when favourite for the Prix Ganay next time. 

Good run. Bad run. Good run. Bad run. If the pattern continues, Zarakem is due a good run. The return to slower ground and 12 furlongs may help, but a leap of faith is needed. 

To follow on Friday.