Dave Nevison's horse racing tips: Best bets for Thursday

Sandy Thomson is almost certain to have a winner at the Perth Festival this week, and that’s likely to be a well-backed one, too, and this handicap debutant looks a prime candidate.

Ninetofive returned from three-month absence, and a wind op, laat time out and showed much improved form by finishing a good second to the useful Miss Lamb at Hexham where he stayed on really well having looked set to be well beaten.

I believe his opening mark of 105 looks a very generous assessment, and on pedigree, as well as the evidence of his latest outing, is absolutely certain to be suited by the step up in trip here.

I expect to see support for him on Thursday, especially if the rain arrives.

Ventura Flame’s discouraging form figures in the second half of last season do not do him justice, with only his final outing last year being really disappointing.

Looking back at his very narrow second over this course and distance in July off a 4lb higher mark, and roughly the same draw, is very encouraging, and ran several good races off higher marks afterwards.

He reappeared this month having been dropped to his last winning mark and ran really well to finish second in conditions similar to this.

He was comfortably beaten by a rival who looks well ahead of the handicapper, but it is difficult to see a similar type here, and Ventura Flame is the one to side with.

Ibiza Rocks has never won a handicap but has run well at 0-95 level in the past. He had two poor runs for Ed Bethell at the end of last season after losing his form for Charles Hills, but he looked as though he might be on the way back on his first outing for the burgeoning Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero partnership at Wolverhampton last time out.

He is a pound lower here back on turf and is upped in trip to a mile for the first time, which will be interesting. He is speedily bred but has been staying on well over seven furlongs in the races he has been competitive in.

Kevin Stott looks a solid booking, and it is worth chancing Ibiza Rocks to last home.