Dan Skelton: My runners over the days ahead plus Cheltenham updates

Dan Skelton is one of the principal British trainers who stand in the way of Irish raiders again dominating next month’s Cheltenham Festival. He trains key contenders in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase, plus has candidates for many other races at the four-day meeting.

But before that his focus is on a significant card at Warwick on Saturday, when his leading Racing Post Arkle fancy Third Time Lucki will clash with Edwardstone for a second time in the Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices' Chase. The latter came out on top when they met in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown in December but Skelton believes it could be a different story this weekend.

He will also be represented by Elle Est Belle in the Urban Logistics Reit Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon on Thursday. She is prominent in the ante-post betting for the Parnell Properties Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Here’s what Skelton had to say about a number of his team on Wednesday morning.

(Ryanair Chase)

I'm super happy with him. What happened at Wetherby [fell when a clear leader in the Charlie Hall] was a bitter pill to swallow. It was very disappointing as it's an important race in the calendar and looking the winner. He was always going to need a bit of time after that fall as his neck was sore for a good while but I've jumped him three times since and he’s worked beautifully. Myself and Colm [Donlon, the owner] have talked endlessly about what route to go down but we know we can have him well fresh, so he's going to go straight to the Ryanair. He's a bigger, stronger and better horse [than when running at Cheltenham in the past]. He wasn't that far behind when we rode in way too aggressively at last year's Festival and I have no concerns about him handling the track.

(Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup and Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase)

I'm very happy with where our horses are. They are both heading straight to Cheltenham. Both worked this morning and went nicely. They've got hard races coming their way but that's what happens in Champion Chases and Gold Cups. I feel it's a very open Gold Cup. Every time there’s been a Gold Cup trial, or a Gold Cup-type race, there's been a different winner, and Conflated chucked his hat into the ring at the weekend. I'm delighted to have my horse in the form he is in at the moment. Nube Negra was second in the Champion Chase last year. OK, Chacun Pour Soi has proved to be a significantly better horse on his side of the Irish Sea, so perhaps his run in last year's Champion Chase isn't true to what he can really do. We've never faced them two from Ascot [Shishkin and Energumene]. On numbers they're obviously achieving very highly so we know it's not going to be easy, but the best we can do is have our horses in the best possible shape.

(McCoy Contractors County Hurdle)

He worked really well this morning and is on course for the County Hurdle. His over-reach at Ascot was as bad as I've ever seen a horse have. He basically pulled the bulb of his heel off and we stitched it at the racecourse. Remarkably, he was never lame on it and we were lucky that he didn't do any structural damage. I had a long gap with him before he won the Greatwood Hurdle and the long gap from Ascot to the Festival doesn't concern me. We can get him ready fresh. I was very happy for 90% of the journey at Ascot as I thought he travelled brilliantly in a very fast run race before fading. I can only put that down to that “second run bounce theory” as I don't have anything else to offer other than that. I think it was accentuated by the fact that he over-reached and he couldn't give his best from the back of two out to the line. I know him inside out. It’s nice to have a horse that you know you can have really well fresh going into the race like that. You can trust your horse, trust your system.

(Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)

How did we run into him [Galopin Des Champs] in a handicap [the Martin Pipe]? It’s remarkable, really, but we did. Langer Dan is in good form. We didn't do anything with him in the autumn but we've got going now. He's going to run at Taunton on February 22, and then he will be strongly considered for the Imperial Cup [at Sandown] and then the conditional jockeys race again. We may not go to the Imperial Cup. I'll have to talk to Colm [Donlon, the owner] and see what we fancy at the time.

(JCB Triumph Hurdle)

He was very good at Taunton yesterday. I thought long and hard about what to do with him: whether he should go to Haydock and ask him a big question on ground that would be hard work, or go for the Adonis [at Kempton]. Obviously Adonis winners have gone on to win it the Triumph but it's getting close [to Cheltenham] and I just thought ‘no, take the best route you can’. So I ran him over an extended trip, just to almost prove his stamina and get him used to sort of racing a bit of a distance because the Triumph Hurdle winner has got to stay. He was a little on it for a mile but then relaxed, jumped very well and quickened up.

OK, he was getting a chunk of weight off older horses who were not as good as him, so it would have been disappointing had he got beat, but at the same time he could not have won much better. He didn’t just gallop away; he really picked up and shot away. What can you do you [when it comes to taking on the Irish challengers]? You’ve got to go out there and give yourself the best chance. Other than Allmankind, I’m not sure how many I’ve run in the Triumph, but this horse I feel is a Triumph type of horse because he will see the trip out well, the track is no issue and he jumps nicely plus has a little bit of class, which is always important. He’ll also get down and get stuck into it. He's not one of those horses who will face that hill and whimper out; he will put his head down and have a go. I think that gives him a squeak.

Urban Logistics Reit Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle (3.10 Huntingdon on Thursday)

I've been desperate to step her up in trip. I had her in the Betfair Hurdle and I know there was a little bit of disappointment that it had only 16 confirmations, but I went through it and thought eight to ten of those are very progressive. And with a dry forecast it will be gas on around there. So I've kind of done the right thing by her and gone to this race, and I think she will run very well. She obviously gets bit of weight from the others, being a mare, but she's got that class one penalty. I'd be very disappointed if she didn't go very close. We have to get through tomorrow [before thinking about Cheltenham]. The trip for the Mares’ Novice doesn't worry me necessarily because it's on Thursday’s track [the New Course] and it's 2m 1f. Obviously Tuesday [Mares’ Hurdle] is 2m4f, so that’s not an issue, either. She's no certainty to go to Cheltenham. We could end up leaving her for Aintree. I want to see what happens tomorrow.

I was happy with Third Time Lucki this morning after just giving him a little breeze and everything was good. The reason we’re going to Warwick is because the ground is hanging on. If there was nothing but rain forecast I wouldn’t have even entered him, but he’s in nice form and I think the track will suit him. Obviously Edwardstone is turning up which will be a harder task, but I like the idea of being there on good ground. Knowing what we know now, I think we’re entitled to think we’ve got a better chance of beating Edwardstone because of the ground. I think if we met him on Sandown ground we wouldn’t actually meet because I’d protect my horse from that, so we’re meeting on what should be nice ground and it gives us reasons for optimism. With the ground in our favour I think we can turn the tables. I believe having seen more and more of our horse – you saw how effective he was at Doncaster when he could use all of his speed – he needs better ground.

I’m not going to take anything away from our defeat at Sandown. I think as much as the ground was a little soft for us that day it was a third quick run at the start of the season. That was probably as much our undoing as well as how we tried to ride him as much as anything. We’ve learnt a lot as we’ve gone through the season with him and I’m looking forward to running him on Saturday. If we got some rain out of nowhere his participation would be in doubt but as it stands he’s running. We were worried about him after Doncaster but he just had a tiny little overreach when he came back in and it actually turned out to be nothing. He was excellent that day though and that’s the horse that we know we’ve got. He loves decent ground and he showed what we always hoped he was capable of. I know that perhaps it wasn’t the deepest race in the world, but he did do it with a penalty and it’s hard to win Graded races with a penalty so he looked very good that day.

We’ve worked out a lot about him and I’m coming here because I’ve got a theory that when it starts raining it’s going to keep raining and I can just envisage a scenario where Cheltenham is very soft, because we’ve had no rain. All the old sages will tell you that throughout the year everywhere gets the same amount of rain and if you don’t get it one month you get it another. I’m probably overthinking it to be honest, but if it came up really soft at Cheltenham, Third Time Lucki wouldn’t be there.

I’m yet to decide who runs in this and need to take a look at the ground. Molly Ollys Wishes only ran 21 days ago and it’s no gimme with who’s entered so an extra week before the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock Park could be high on the agenda. I’m going to work her second lot today and that will give me an indication of her wellbeing and then we’ll look at the ground. It’s borderline for her and if I didn’t run Molly Ollys Wishes I’d run Get A Tonic, but obviously being a novice you’d have to be realistic about her chances against higher-rated horses. I don’t think she’s a back number though and she could be significantly above average – especially when she goes over fences next season.

“He’s always been begging for a step up in trip. He’s obviously significantly better at Ascot than anywhere else according to his form, but he’s been desperate for a step up in trip and I can’t wait to do it. He ran well over two miles at Warwick last year behind the horse who went on to win the Grand Annual (Sky Pirate), so the track is okay for him and I think the trip will bring about improvement. He has run well here, so we’re going to give it a go. Top-weight is hard but he’s a classy horse and has won a stack of races, so I can’t see why he can’t be competitive in this.”

Message Personnel is crying out for a step up in trip and I think I'll run him. If I don't, I’ll run Camdonian, who is a nice young horse, but I think I'll run the former because he's desperate for this step up in trip.

In this instance, no news is good news. He's got to have a long recuperation and then hopefully be back next winter to resume. We will only have him back at the track when it's appropriate and he is as fully mended as you can get a horse. His tendon injury is routine, if you like. It's a very small hole near the top of the main tendon but it doesn't matter how big or how small it is. There's no substitute for time despite all the advances in equine science. It’s frustrating but the owners are very understanding and hopefully it will be the only hold-up he has in his life.