Chris Dixon: My four best bets for the 2020 Cheltenham Festival

It’s been talked about for ages but is now about to arrive in full force. Everyone you speak to seems to have a view. Within a few seconds of checking social media you can find an expert on the subject.

Headaches could still last for a few days depending on declaration day for certain races. The fever, mild for many until now, will probably hit a peak in terms of numbers and severity on Tuesday morning and last until Friday. If you’re a racing fan who hasn’t caught it yet then you are likely to get the Cheltenham bug again at some stage in the next few days as The Festival is almost here again.

It’s a week I’ve particularly enjoyed for a couple of decades now. Having tried to write a list of the things I love and the things I hate about the week, it became apparent that I was really struggling with the latter bit. Hate? Nothing really. Mild dislike, at most!

This is the pinnacle of the competition for National Hunt horses. There may be a few social runners who are out of their depth in Festival week but if the horse is there, it’s a good one.

The level of thought and precision of plans are raised a level from the day-to-day racing, with each runner having been primed to the minute by the best trainers in Britain and Ireland, who have plotted their routes to this meeting. The top riders are aboard and completely in the zone. The margins are fine and there’s little or no room for error. Every race matters to someone but these matter a little bit more.

Getting a decent bet on early in the day takes effort for much of the year but in Festival week there’s the opportunity to play earlier and prices stick around for longer. Bookmaker prices are competitive and the limits in shops more relaxed.

Liquidity in the exchange markets arrives sooner than normal and you can make your views and back them up earlier in the day without a load of messing about. If only it was like this every day!

In the opening chapter of Picking Winners, my favourite book, Andy Beyer writes “a gambler may have as many periods of pain and frustration as he does of exhilaration but at least he knows he’s alive”. So, if like me, a big part of the enjoyment of the sport comes from betting then you’ll know the feeling of adrenaline pumping as you roar your fancy home.

The satisfaction of being proved right and earning a few quid from an opinion is a great one, but when you get it right at the big meetings it seems that bit more special and rarely feels better than in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival. When you back a winner here you certainly feel alive.

When you bring together the best horses, the best trainers and the best jockeys and put them into battle for races that have been the target for some time, you have the recipe for a potentially outstanding performance: the type of effort that leaves you in awe of these majestic beasts with their power, athleticism and talent.

For me, the one that immediately comes to mind is the 19-length destruction job dished out by Master Minded in the 2008 Champion Chase: a truly jaw-dropping display.

Five years later the outstanding Sprinter Sacre won by the same margin and in doing so recorded a Timeform Rating that surpassed that of Kauto Star in the 2009 King George and has only ever been bettered by Arkle and Flyingbolt. Over hurdles, Thistelecrack’s easy-as-you-like seven-length win in the Stayers' Hurdle of 2016 is one that stands out. I could take you to the exact spot where I watched the race with my dad.

I’ll never forget watching that Thislecrack race with my dad, who was with us at the Festival for the last time. It is a memory that won't ever leave me, but it's not the only race to have left an indelible emotional imprint. Sprinter Sacre’s second Champion Chase, the Gold Cups won by Coneygree and Native River and the second one won by my favourite jumper Kauto Star, all made their mark.

I was there as Best Mate recorded his third Gold Cup win and again could take you to the spot in the stands where I watched, so vivid is my recollection of that day, while I’ve also seen both Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s dominate the Stayers Hurdle. All of these are horses and performances I’ve been privileged to see and left enriched by – that’s what this meeting can do.

Much of what makes these memories so vivid is the atmosphere in which they are experienced. Each morning as you walk into the track there’s a sense of anticipation. The knowledge you’re about to witness some top-class racing, the hope you’ll back a winner or two and the belief that there’s a chance you’ll witness one of those huge performances or pieces of history unfold in front of you.

The tension and excitement is palpable, especially in the moments before the Championship races or when a red-hot favourite is about to line up and as a racing fan it’s a feeling you can’t help but love.

Well, it goes without saying we’ll be treated to some top-class racing but if we see an outstanding performance it could come in the Betway Champion Chase which, on paper looks the race of the meeting. Altior, if he still makes it to the race after a setback announced on Sunday morning, no longer looks the force of old but he was one of rare talent at his peak and he’s still a high-class horse. His meeting with Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi has form analysts and punters divided, with my view being that the value bet is Chacun Pour Soi who I believe has the best two-mile form in the book over the past year, yet is the biggest price of the three.

Paisley Park will be the banker of the meeting for many and it’s hard to see past him in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, such is his dominance in the division since the start of last season. It’s a dominance that has the potential to make him another staying hurdler who will be talked about for years to come.

Benie Des Dieux is another likely to carry the banker tag for lots of punters as she bids for a second win in the Close Brothers Mares Hurdle that she took in 2018 and had at her mercy when coming down at the last 12 months ago. I expect both horses to win but I’m unlikely to get involved in heavily backing either of them.

A mare I will be backing on the opening day is Epatante who brings the best recent form to the table in what looks a long way short of a vintage renewal of the Unibet Champion Hurdle. That form comes in the shape of her impressive win in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and while the doubters point towards Kempton being a very different track to Cheltenham - where she bombed out in the Mares Novices' race last year - I’m far from convinced that the track was the reason for her not producing what was expected that day and the price has over-factored that blot on her copybook in my view.

With some exciting novice hurdlers on show through the week there’s clear potential for one of them to be the favourite for the Champion Hurdle of 2021 by the end of the week, and Envoi Allen tops the list of exciting young stars in the division. Already a Festival winner having taken the Champion Bumper last year, he remains unbeaten but there are a number talented and progressive youngsters he needs to see off.

Goshen isn’t one of them, but I think he is a very smart juvenile, and he’s my fancy for the JCB Triumph Hurdle on Friday. Solo impressed in the Adonis, though not to the extent the official handicapper would have you believe in my opinion, while Allmankind might be a bit of a tearaway but he’s kept going in each of his races so far and has a big engine. However, I believe Goshen has an even bigger one and despite his tendency to jump right, Gary Moore’s winning machine can add another to his tally in a race I believe will suit him perfectly.

Friday’s Magners Gold Cup looks wide open and a solid case can be made for many. I’m still undecided as to what I’ll back, if indeed I back anything, but reigning champion Al Boum Photo won’t be an easy one to wrestle the crown from, judged on the manner of his win last year and his return at Tramore.

A race I’ve already bet in is the Ryanair Chase on Thursday. A Plus Tard was extremely impressive in a handicap here last year and has since proved himself in Grade 1 company. This will be his first start at this trip since his win in the Novices’ Handicap Chase and I believe he has more to offer over this distance having seen the way he hit the line over 2m1f at Leopardstown when producing a career-best performance last time. For those who have asked in recent weeks and to whom I’ve replied 'I’m not sure yet', I'm sure now. He is my best bet of the week at this stage, just ahead of Goshen.

All of these horses are far from certain to win, but one thing you can be sure of is a brilliant week of racing and I can’t wait to once again be part of the Racing TV team bringing you the coverage each day.

Epatante – Unibet Champion Hurdle

Chacun Pour Soi – Betway Champion Chase

A Plus Tard – Ryanair Chase

Goshen – JCB Triumph Hurdle