Cheltenham Festival Day Four: Race-by-race guide and Tote Placepot

The first six races at Cheltenham on Gold Cup day are put under the microscope as we share our suggested Tote Placepot perm

Both new and existing customers can pick up a £1 Placepot bet at tote.co.uk, just by opting-in, with the offer also available on each day of the Festival.

If you’ve not played the Placepot before, you need to pick a horse to place in each of the first six races to win a share of the pool. Pools regularly pay well into the thousands during the Festival with the average Placepot dividend paying £7,376.54 in the last five years, which with Tote+ now in place at tote.co.uk, would be £8,114.19.

Six of the past nine winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, which augurs well for VAUBAN (12), impressive winner of the latest renewal from Fil Dor and Il Etait Temps. Pied Piper has done nothing wrong so far - including beating Vauban at Punchestown - so is very much respected, while the British pair Knight Salute and Porticello are closely matched on their Doncaster form and neither should be taken lightly. The last-named is trained by Gary Moore, who will be hoping to gain compensation for the dramatic final-flight departure of Goshen in this race in 2020, and he also runs TEDDY BLUE (11) who may go under the radar slightly thanks to two second-placed finishes. He looks the type who might settle better if granted a stronger pace in this better contest.

Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins shared six renewals between them until Suprise Package’s trainer Peter Fahey struck with Belfast Banter last year, and it looks significant that Mullins eschews reasonable opportunities in the graded novice hurdles with STATE MAN (15). That suggests connections believe a handicap mark of 141 underestimates him significantly. A strongly-run race would likely suit stablemate Farout, another novice who could be attractively handicapped with improvement to come, while the progressive Top Bandit is another Irish runner to consider. West Cork – trained by the aforementioned Skelton - and Betfair Hurdle runner-up I Like To Move It appear to be the pick of the home team at the top of the betting, but it might be worth taking a chance on CORMIER (19) reproducing his recent Kelso run, with Wednesday’s rain very much in his favour.

The proven Grade 1 winners Ginto and Minella Cocooner are respected, but recent SPs of winners have been 50-1, 33-1 (twice), 16-1, 14-1 (twice) and 11-1, so this isn't a race in which to be worried if your fancy is overlooked in the market. Among the 17 winners of the race, Monkfish is the only one not to have won or been placed in a Graded novice hurdle en-route, which counts against the likes of The Nice Guy, but not ERIC BLOODAXE (5) who ran too badly to be true last time but had previously impressed when his stamina was tested at Limerick. STAG HORN (16) stayed well on the Flat and could conceivably improve on his Graded win at Warwick now stepped up in trip again, so rates a better Placepot proposition than the giant Hillcrest, who is likely to carry plenty of the pool money.

Age is against ten-year-old Al Boum Photo becoming only the second winner to regain his crown (after Kauto Star), because the last horse older than nine to win was Cool Dawn in 1998. The party at Closutton may still go on til dawn, however, as Asterion Forlonge and TORNADO FLYER (11) give Willie Mullins ample backup. The latter's placed form at two previous festivals reads well and it may be that this even longer trip draws out more improvement. Of those towards the top of the betting, the strong-staying Galvin is obviously respected but preference is for A PLUS TARD (2) who looks a more reliable proposition than the horse he chased home 12 months ago, Minella Indo. Protektorat's course form doesn't look good enough but he is still young enough to step up once again.

Perhaps appropriately, 28 of the past 33 winners began their careers in point-to-points or hunter chases. The favourite BILLAWAY (2) started in points and like six of the past 12 winners has finished in the first five in a previous year’s renewal. He has been runner-up in the past two runnings and seemed to benefit from cheekpieces when winning last time, so there seems no reason to desert him as another banker here, despite again facing Winged Leader who impressed when beating him in January. Owner/rider David Maxwell is on a mission to win this race, and has been placed twice, so his selected runner Bob and Co is also respected, but this is the race in which we're playing the Placepot banker.

It’s only the second running of the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, so we have no stats or trends to play with, but it is worth recognising that 14 of the 21 races run at the Festival exclusively for mares in recent years have been won by French-breds. Elimay was bred in France and was beaten only half a length in last year’s inaugural running; there isn't much between her and Mount Ida on their Fairyhouse form over the last two seasons, and both are respected, but neither looks infallible. Preference is for CONCERTISTA (1) (also French-bred) whose Cheltenham Festival record reads 2-1-2 and who always looked the type who would take well to fences (unbeaten in two starts so far).

16 lines (2x2x2x2x1x1)

Leg 1: 11 Teddy Blue, 12. Vauban Leg 2: 15 State Man, 19 Cormier Leg 3: 5 Eric Bloodaxe, 16 Stag Horn Leg 4: 2 A Plus Tard, 11 Tornado Flyer Leg 5: 2 Billaway Leg 6: 1 Concertista