Caspian Caviar Gold Cup: Cepage has plenty going for him at 6-1

The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is the big betting race of the weekend, although a race that has had many titles over the past couple of decades must be in danger of being called Christmas Has Come Early For The Bookmakers Stakes.

Since 1997, there has been only one winning favourite, Poquelin a decade ago, and any punters blindly placing a £10 bet on the market leader would have lost £145 – or more if they had had not split stakes on joint-favourites who failed to deliver during that period.

Riders Onthe Storm, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, has the dubious honour of heading the ante-post market this year at a general 4-1 after a fluent success on his debut for the stable at Aintree last month.

The psychedelic rock song of the same title (spelt in the more conventional manner) by The Doors peaked at number 22 when first released in 1971 and, by chance, there were 22 entries left in the mix for Saturday’s feature before 16 of them were declared.

Riders Onthe Storm motored through that 2m4f Aintree contest and jumped superbly. Between the last two obstacles it looked like he might record a wide-distance win without coming off the bridle but Sam Twiston-Davies had to get quite serious in the closing stage and at the line he had only a length and three quarters to spare over Cepage, the pair drawing clear of subsequent Newbury scorer Old Grangewood.

You can read Riders On the Storm’s finishing efforts a couple of ways. He was either running out of petrol or, having been off seven months, perhaps he blew up.

Few Twiston-Davies runners lack for fitness and so for time being I’m in the first camp. My immediate thought was that he would not be inconvenienced by a return to two miles, so the stiffer test provided by Cheltenham, not to mention the handicapper hiking him up 13lb, is a concern.

The other worry for favourite backers is his brief appearance in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase on the Old Course at Cheltenham in March, when he fell at the sixth, having previously made an error at the third.

That is not enough evidence to condemn him as a horse who will not rise to the challenges of Prestbury Park, but if anything the New Course places even more demands on jumping. Runners have to negotiate the first fence after about eight seconds, and it usually takes just half a minute to fly over the first three.

Getting into an instant rhythm is imperative and it’s probably no coincidence that many winners of the race either race prominently or have been front-runners.

Cepage is a horse who is usually in the thick of things from the outset and, 5lb better off with Riders Onthe Storm, has to be near the top of any shortlist.

I liked the way the way he stuck to his task at Aintree, after 11 months on the sidelines, and we know Cheltenham holds no fears for him because he beat all bar Frodon, the subsequent Ryanair Chase winner, in last year’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

He jumped well on the whole that day but a small error four out, and being outjumped two out, were factors in his narrow defeat. As at Aintree, he galloped on willingly in the closing stages.

Cepage is 12lb higher than 12 months ago and will have to carry top weight, but the seven-year-old seems to be thriving and six winners since 2006 have won carrying 11st 4lb or more and it would surely have been seven had Starchitect not met such an unfortunate end two years ago.

In addition, Venetia Williams seems to know exactly the type required for the race as her four runners in it since 2014 have finished 1322.

In summary, it is difficult to see Cepage finishing out of the frame, making him something of an each-way steal at a general 6-1.

Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner five times in the past decade and his Secret Investor (8-1) and Brelan D’As (10-1) feature prominently in the betting.

However the former does not look especially well treated for what will be his debut in handicap company, while the latter is 5lb higher than for his near-miss in a BetVictor Gold Cup and will require more.

More interesting at this stage are Benatar (general 16-1), Good Man Pat (14-1) and Kobrouk (25-1), who are preferred in that order.

Benatar has been off 11 months since a below-par run at Ascot and his wellbeing will have. to be taken on trust but he is still only seven and I’ve no doubt he has the ability to exploit a mark of 148 at some stage.

He has often been his own worst enemy, being a headstrong sort, but the memory of his third in the JLT Chase at the Festival last year lingers because he performed wonders to be placed after fighting Jamie Moore for the first half of the race.

You could have forgiven his legs turning to jelly in the closing stages but he kept on again at the finish to fend off Kemboy and Finian’s Oscar, who finished fourth and fifth.

The end-to-end gallop that seems assured on Saturday should suit him, provided he gets the green light to run. Gary Moore, his trainer, also has the trail-blazing Knockanuss (16-1) engaged, but stamina is a stumbling block for him.

Good Man Pat, like Riders On the Storm, was a leading fancy for the Close Brothers in March but seemed to find it all too much.

He is much better than his running that days suggests and he shaped with plenty of promise on his return over nearly 3m at Ascot, not getting home after trading at 1.33 in-running on Betfair.

Dropping in trip, with that run under his belt, he has to be taken seriously for the Alan King/Tom Cannon combination. The handicapper has also dropped him 1lb since Ascot, which represents a bonus.

ANDY’S VERDICT:

A strong renewal on the cards with CEPAGE making as much appeal an any at this stage. The 6-1 shot ticks plenty of boxes – not least that he seems a certain starter.

Benatar and Good Man Pat are interesting for different reasons and have been declared, so I will be having a saver on them two.