Ebor Festival day one World Pool preview: a tip for every race at York

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Trefor is only 3 lb (1.4kg) higher than when beating THE MAN by a head in this 1100m (5.5f) contest 12 months ago, but gave the impression when winning at Windsor last Monday that was the main plan for this season. Preference is for the Richard Spencer-trained sprinter who hasn't run badly in defeat this summer despite uninspiring form figures, is now 3 lb (1.4kg) lower than last year, and could be well-drawn in stall 3 (eight of the last 12 winners came from single-figure draws). Toca Madera ran well twice in the space of five days at Goodwood, while Lexington Blitz, Naana's Sparkle and Stratusnine all also caught the eye in defeat at that meeting. 

Andrew Balding won this with a similar type last year, so Salisbury winner Gentle Hurricane is respected as he steps up to this 1400m (7f) trip, but this looks a strong renewal with the well-regarded Galway winner Trean and Haffner setting a strong standard. The last-named ran well from near the front when second in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, but preference is for his stablemate CONFUCIUS whose jockey Wayne Lordan was advocating a step up in trip back in May. He's disappointed but looks the type to improve now up in distance. Alfred Wallace produced a fine turn of foot when given a more patient ride last time and is respected on the back of that. 

The Derby runner-up Maltese Cross heads the market following his subsequent Group One win at Longchamp, but horses that were beaten in the Irish equivalent have often bounced back here, with five of the last 12 winners having run at the Curragh with four suffering defeat. That's a positive for CHRISTMAS DAY who was nearly three lengths ahead of Maltese Cross at Epsom and ran equally well on the figures when second to stablemate Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby. The rain that has finally arrived this week will suit and he is the pick of Ryan Moore, so can carry his penalty to success in this 2400m (12f) contest. Stablemate Pierre Bonnard, who was a neck behind him at the Curragh, is weighted to reverse the form, but hasn't totally convinced this year, while the speedy nature of this course might not suit Galiyan and Superior Choice who both look strong stayers. 

Five of the last six favourites have won, while 50-1 outsider Arabian Queen (2015) is the only double-figure-priced winner this century, and the top of the market is the place to concentrate on once more. This is a hard race to defend (Halling in 1996 was the last to do so), but many winners often head off to stud so that's a little misleading. Last year's barnstorming winner OMBUDSMAN looked imperious when winning at Royal Ascot recently and the highest-rated flat racehorse in Europe should prove a class above main market rival Constitution River who won the Coral-Eclipse well but faces his biggest test here. Item, who relishes quick ground, is unbeaten in two starts over 2000m (10f) here and looks the pick of the rest. 

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SHRIMP SHADY, who beat Team Player in a photo finish (with Ride The Thunder in third) at Newbury in July, was committed for home a long way out at Ascot last time and could go one place better here in this 3200m (16f) contest under a more patient ride now reunited with his regular pilot. Small Fry has a rise in the weights to deal with having looked unlucky not to win at Goodwood, where he was ahead of Valedictory (who tries first-time blinkers today), while Kilmeaden shaped well on his British debut and is respected on slower ground with a visor applied. Impressive Ascot winner Kirchner is of interest with Ryan Moore booked, while Irish runners have won two of the last five renewals and Westminster Moon is respected for the wily Tony Martin as a result. 

SCHRODINGER'S CAT won well at Redcar in June and followed that with a short-head defeat to Naana's Shadow over 1000m (5f) here just a week later. He was beaten less than three lengths by the same rival last time after being given a more patient ride than usual (normally races near the pace) and is now much better off at the weights, so is preferred. Manatee Mehmas caught the eye in the same Goodwood sprint, and is of interest, as is turf debutant Zain Primus who coped well with the drop to this trip when winning at Newcastle in May. 

Dubai Champion is on a recovery mission in this 1200m (6f) nursery having gone close at Goodwood, but the handicap mark of HENLEY ON THAMES looks enticing given his improved performance when winning at Hamilton last time. God Given Talent caught the eye in defeat behind Gimcrack favourite Arapaho Gold at Newbury and is fancied to bounce back on his stable debut, as could Ruler's Pride who drops in grade. The in-form filly Havana Sprite looks the pick of those who come into the race on the back of a win, while Sue's Last Chance could improve now handicapping in a race his yard has won four times since 2011.