Ebor Festival: a 25-1 ante-post tip and RaceiQ eye-catchers

The 2026 Sky Bet Ebor Festival was remarkably shock free. Softish ground and 422 runners must have had bookmakers licking their lips, but 11 market leaders obliged and the biggest priced winner at the meeting was a 16-1 chance in the Convivial.

Some seemingly unfathomable handicaps proved nothing of the kind with Ebor winner Daiquiri Bay (10-1) being the only winner at double-figure odds.

However, the biggest race of the meeting, the Juddmonte International, did not go to script.

Item and Almaqam dominated the finish of the £1.5 million feature with the big two, Ombudsman and Constitution River, ending up having a fight for bronze. Kudos to the Daily Mail headline maker who came up with "Unexpected Item In The Bragging Area".

One of many talking points from the race was the role played by Hawk Mountain.

A Group One winner as a juvenile, when he had Benvenuto Cellini back in third, the Wootton Bassett colt had finished runner-up to Constitution River in the French Derby before finishing third behind him in the Coral-Eclipse.

He no doubt had his each-way supporters but was asked to set unsustainable fast fractions, no doubt to try and pull Ombudsman out of his comfort zone and benefit his own stablemate, Constitution River.

Hawk Mountain kicked off with two “very fast” furlongs of 17.83sec and 11.73sec, plus was also fastest in furlong three (12.02sec).

To put that into context, the winner, Item, took 1.27sec longer to complete the same distance – a difference getting on for eight lengths.

Hawk Mountain also recorded “fast” splits in furlongs four and five before his early exertions took their toll and he wilted.

Ballydoyle’s plan of getting Ombudsman in the “red zone” early on had worked. He had to go “fast” in furlongs two and four, plus “very fast” in furlong five, just to keep in touch at the back of the field. When previously shining in Britain, he had been able to go Par furlongs or slower in the early stages, so had plenty left in his tank for the finish. This was a different challenge, away from fast ground, and he came up short.

The irony, of course, is that Constitution River pinged the gates (second quickest to 20mph in 2.49sec) and got lit up before getting sucked into Hawk Mountain’s slipstream.

He hit almost 38mph in the first furlong, his quickest time of the race. Such an own goal would not have been part of the Ballydoyle gameplan discussed in the pre-race huddle.

Constitution River was 0.86sec quicker than Item (about five lengths) through the first 220 yards but, with the early tempo unrelenting, was always likely to surrender that advantage when it mattered most.

Colin Keane, abord the winner, resisted getting involved in the early skirmishes, reflected by the individual furlong races in the first half mile. Item finished 6728 in those battles.

In fact, the Juddmonte homebred was fastest of the field through just one furlong, but it was the one that counted most: furlong ten. He called on all his staying reserves to finish the job in 12.78sec, with Almaqam buckling late in the scene and recording 13.14sec.

Constitution River (13.59sec) and Ombudsman (13.69sec) had been blunted by this stage, while an eased Hawk Mountain signed off with a 14.64sec.

Away from the Group One action, there was plenty to digest. Here are ten beaten horses to follow from the meeting, starting with three who appeal for ante-post purposes.

All 23 of Coul Angel’s races are in the RaceiQ database and he’s had the best or second-best Finishing Speed Percentage in 12 of those. He was again strongest at the finish in Saturday’s red hot sprint handicap, and that needs making up, too, as he was drawn unfavourably high in stall 20.

York is never an easy place to swoop from off the pace in sprints, but Coul Angel managed to grab bronze after being 18th of the 20 runners with two furlongs to run. He was the only runner to sign off with successive “fast” furlongs, with his splits being 11.40sec and 12.13sec.

The Mick Appleby-trained four-year-old had run a similar race at York on his previous start and next month’s Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup, for which he’s a chunky 25-1, looks made for him. His recent efforts have been on a sound surface, but he’s also proven on softer going.

The Ebor was as fiercely competitive as ever and Beylerbeyi ran a cracker to be a staying on fifth.

He was typically sluggish at the start – if they gave away rosettes for being slow to 20mph he would have some collection – but he was motoring by the end, finishing off with a “fast’ furlong of 12.61sec. That was only the splash of red that any of the runners managed in the final half mile.

The six-year-old is 10lb higher in the ratings than when landing last season’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch, but few will run a rehearsal as good as this one and a bold defence is on the cards. He’s been trimmed to 10-1 by several firms but bet365 still offer 16-1.

The Jim Goldie-trained seven-year-old, chalked up at 25-1, also appeals for the Cesarewitch after chasing home Small Fry last Wednesday. 

The winner was in command some way out, but Mountain Road caught the eye with the way he passed eight rivals in the final quarter of a mile courtesy of his final splits of 12.06sec and 12.37sec.

That final furlong was easily best of the race, being 0.43sec (about 2½ lengths) swifter than the winner. He’s unproven beyond 2m but the fact he’s had the best finishing Speed Percentage in his past three races, all over 2m, is encouraging.

Blue Courvoisier was a taking all-the-way winner this mile handicap on Friday under a canny ride by Rossa Ryan.

Eklleem was unable to lay a glove on him from off the pace but kept on in pleasing style from his wide draw, passing eight rivals in the final two furlongs.

It will probably slip under most radars, but he was fastest through each of the final three furlongs, going Par, Par, Fast when the bulk of his rivals were mixing variants of “slow”. This was only his fifth run and there is more to come from the Cambridgeshire entry. 

Manatee Mehmas has yet to add to his debut success at Doncaster in April but it can only be a matter of time before he puts that right. 

He fared best of those held up in this sprint exclusively for three-year-olds, keeping on to grab second, having been only 12th with two to run. 

And this was not a race where you wanted to sit off the pace with the other trio in the first four sitting 1-2-3 after the first furlong. He wore a first-time tongue strap here and connections also have 6f to explore. 

3rd in the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes 

Andrew Balding had an Ebor meeting to savour, having six winners and taking a big chunk out of Aidan O’Brien’s lead at the top of the trainers’ championship. 

It looked for a. long way that Mount Atlas would give him victory in the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes on Friday, too, but he was betrayed by a lack of stamina. 

He was fastest in furlongs 11, 12 and 14 (second quickest in 13), doing his work on the bridle, but he was “very slow” in each of the final two furlongs and had to settle for third. 

Mount Atlas is clearly still in good form, and expect to see him over 12f or 14f next time. 

The hat-trick seeking Silver Lake was the plunge horse in the finale at York on Friday and got the job done. 

However, she was made to pull out all the stops by Pendella, who was never far away and grabbed the lead in the eighth furlong when one of only four runners to dip under 12sec. 

She kept on well enough, but Silver Lake had a bit more in her locker, completing the last three furlongs in 36.90sec. Pendella managed 37.24sec, finishing a clear second. The chestnut daughter of Space Blues will be unlucky to bump into another Silver Lake any time soon. 

A decent gallop on soft ground meant it paid to be patient in the 7f nursery on Thursday, with fiveof the first six home (including the first four home) no closer than tenth after three furlongs. 

The exception was Perfect Nation, the favourite, who finished fifth after racing up with the pace and being too keen. He followed a “very fast” first furlong of 15.12sec with a “fast” second furlong of 11.87sec 

And if he’d had his own way, he would have gone even quicker as Billy Loughnane did his best to curb his enthusiasm.

On the plus side, the Sioux Nation colt seems likely to be eased in the weights and he’s well worth another chance in handicap company. George Boughey and Basher Watts Racing clearly think a bit of him, as he’s in the Champagne Stakes and Royal Lodge.

Primo Lara had won at Ascot last month on his first start for Jane Chapple Hyam and hit the front with two to run in this 1m 4f handicap. 

However, he had already been exposed to the heat of battle and faded, being overhauled by three rivals who sat out the back (they were 11th, 13th and 15th respectively aftrer a mile). 

Primo Lara should continue to run well, hinting here that a drop to ten furlongs will not inconvenience him. 

Time For Sandals was an eye-catching fourth in the Nunthorpe but you don’t need me or the RaceiQ data to tell you that. 

Redorange received no attention but might have finished somewhere near her but for being almost wiped out in the final furlong. 

He was keeping on at the time, having been fourth fastest in the penultimate furlong, and had previously finished ahead of the Nunthorpe runner-up, Starlust, at York on his previous start. 

Keep in mind, too, that all the pace in the Nunthorpe was low and he was drawn widest of all in 18. He’s the type to bounce quickly.