York super stats: three selections for Saturday

It’s rare that horses relatively unproven at Group level would take home a non-two-year-old Group One prize, but the elevation of the City of York Stakes to the top echelon this year hasn’t really attracted – with the exception of Rosallion – an elite performer, potentially leaving the door further ajar in a race that has sometimes allowed lesser horses to breakthrough at Group level (only six of the nine winners since the race was upgraded from Listed company in 2016 had a Group win to their name).

With question marks over Rosallion’s speed for this test (and his current wellbeing after missing a run in France recently), and his Sussex Stakes conqueror Qirat something of a Goodwood specialist, it might be worth taking a chance on Quinault at a big price. He was too keen when behind Lake Forest and Audience in the Lennox Stakes (a race that has provided four of the last five winners of this) but was an impressive winner over C&D in June - his third win at York from as many starts – and four of the last 12 winners of this had winning form at the track to their name already.

Elsewhere on the card, the Strensall Stakes has also provided a good stepping stone for handicappers and listed performers, with just two of the last 12 winners having a Group win to their name. Skukuza is yet to run at that level but has looked a much improved horse this term, his Curragh wins suggesting that a race like this should be within his range (he now has an official BHA rating of 113; nine of the last 12 winners had a rating of 110 or higher).

Eleven of the last 12 winners had had at least five previous runs over 8-10 furlongs, while 10 of those had at least two previous wins over the same distances; unlike King’s Gambit and Bowmark, Skukuza ticks both of those boxes, and his race fitness could prove crucial (11 of the last 12 winners had their preceding run within the last 27 days).

The big betting handicap of the week - the Ebor - has improved in quality over the years, with each of the last 10 winners rated 101 or higher. Though 9 lb higher than when second here a year ago, dual-purpose performer Kihavahhas earned every bit, having followed up his Musselburgh win in April with fine efforts under both codes since. 

He’s a proven winner over this trip, as seven of the last 12 winners have been; if you take out the Irish hurdling winners, that becomes seven of the last nine. The right weight (the last seven winners all carried between 9st 3lbs and 9st 9lbs) to boot, he gets the nod at a big price.