York ante-post tips: selections chalked up at 40-1 and 25-1

Race: Clipper Handicap (3.00, Thursday).

Best odds: 40-1 (bet365).

Things have not gone to plan for Apiarist on his past two starts, and there are reasons to believe this overall consistent performer is overpriced at the 40-1 on offer with bet365. 

Kevin Ryan’s charge was kept busy on the all-weather during the winter and enjoyed a productive campaign winning three handicaps, plus also finished a close third in the All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap off a rating of 97 before a two-month break.

He returned to action in a strong renewal of the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot where he travelled strongly before enduring traffic problems and could never get involved. Only the winner and runner-up clocked a higher FSP, according to the RaceiQ data, and Apiarist was still weaving through rivals inside the final furlong. 

It was a similar scenario in a Premier Handicap at the Galway Festival next time out, too, as the four-year-old was given plenty to do before storming home, and the RaceiQ data shows he clocked the highest FSP there. 

He remains on a rating of 97, and his past two efforts suggest he is capable of going close off this mark on turf. The selection was also an eye-catcher when fourth in a hot three-year-old handicap at the Sky Bet Ebor Festival last year where he had a wide draw and was too far back to challenge the front three. 

His form figures at York read 4143, so he clearly has a liking for the track, and does not appear ground-dependant. His handler also believes he is the finished article now having matured over the winter, and this contest looks tailor-made for him, so I’ll be surprised if it is not the aim.

There are enough positives to suggest he is worth an each-way wager at 40-1, and with a maximum of 20 runners, he’s guaranteed a run. Fingers crossed for a decent draw, and no traffic problems.

Race: Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3.35, Saturday).

Best odds: 25-1 (general).

I will start off with the negatives for this selection as, admittedly, he does come with some risks attached. 

He’s only had four starts, so lacks experience for a race of this nature, and must overcome the bounce factor given his latest start was his first for 698 days. He will also arrive here following a 133-day absence, which you could argue is not ideal, and must overcome a 9lb hike in the weights. 

However, he looked miles ahead of the handicapper when successful off a rating of 89 on his belated return to action at Thirsk in April where he travelled powerfully, and still displayed signs of greenness, including when hitting the front. 

The five-year-old was sent off the well-backed favourite there, which hinted he had been showing the right signs at home, as does his entry in the Irish St Leger, and he quickly stretched clear to defeat some decent handicappers. The second has also franked the form by scoring twice since. 

James Tate’s charge is a half-brother to 2020 Sky Bet Ebor winner Fujaira Prince, and star staying hurdler Nichols Canyon, so is certainly bred for the job, and his handler always believed he would progress with age. His pedigree also suggests he will have no problem handling this new trip. 

Tate is on record as identifying this race as Majestic Warrior’s long-term aim, and I expect an absence since his return has been by design.

A rating of 98 clearly demands more in a race of this nature, but he is still a potential Group performer, and his Thirsk win indicates he retains all his ability. He also showed bundles of promise when successful in a maiden and a novice stakes prior to his long absence.

The positives therefore outweigh the negatives, so I’m willing to risk him at the general 25-1 on offer, especially as he could still have a huge amount to offer. 

I was initially keen on Shadow Dance for this contest following his eye-catching return to action over an inadequate trip at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. However, a dry forecast ahead of York, and the likelihood of faster ground, dampens enthusiasm, but quicker conditions should not be a hinderance for the selection.