Saturday tips from Dave Nevison: four best bets

showed her first real form last time out since she made a winning debut early last season, and that was her first run since moving from Jane Chapple-Hyam to George Scott. 

That winning debut prompted many judges to think she was Royal Ascot material, but things didn’t work out that way and she missed that meeting plus only had one other disappointing run as a two-year-old.

She continued to disappoint at Group level this season but after nine weeks off, she ran a terrific race here at Doncaster over the minimum trip in August. 

That race has already had a winner come out of it and the form shown there puts her within a few pounds of the fancied runners here, so if she can improve again for her new yard, she might surprise a few at a big price (20-1 available with some firms at the time of writing).

The trip, ground and draw don’t worry me too much and she will definitely get a good lead drawn close to Apollo Red.

Alan King’s run of excellent Summer form has certainly continued as we approach Autumn, and he has had three winners at three different tracks on the flat this week, as well as a runner-up over jumps, so I think it is highly likely Paradias can bounce back from a disappointing run at York last time out.

That effort didn’t, however, suggest the four-year-old was out of form, he just didn’t get any sort of run through behind Sir Busker. 

He is off the same mark here which is just 3lb higher than when he won at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, a rise that looks lenient. 

Paradias has shown already that he is able to bounce back from a poor run and if he is back to his best, he will go very close in this.

Native Warrior was first home on his side in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot and then finished an excellent second at Goodwood (behind Paradias) last time out. 

He missed York's Sky Bet Ebor Festival having been a late non-runner in the race won by Treasure Time (Native Warrior was set to have a potentially bad draw in the big field where the first three home were drawn in single figures). 

He certainly looks like a three-year-old who has at least one big handicap in him before possibly being elevated to higher grade races eventually. 

Karl Burke’s charge has fared much better with the draw on this occasion and on this straightforward track, I fully expect a good run. With Treasure Time now having gone up 7lb for his win last time, Native Warrior has to be the selection.

This 0-75 handicap has a top weight running off a rating of just 69, so it may not be quite as competitive as it should be for the grade, and Showtime Mahomes may well be able to extend his perfect record at Musselburgh to three wins from three runs, which includes this corresponding race last season. 

Grant Tuer’s five-year-old hit form for this season when just holding on by a nose last time out and is 3lb higher than that win now, which might seem a little harsh but Showtime Mahomes won off a pound higher last year, so now that he has hit form, he looks well able to follow up.