Winless Ones To Watch: 20 horses to follow over Jumps this season

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles to two-and-a-half miles.

Authentic Legacy put himself on the radar with a very encouraging run on his rules debut in a Listed Junior Bumper at Cheltenham. In a race where the majority of his rivals had winning or solid place form to their name, the rules debutant was badly hampered on the turn for home as the race developed into a sprint, but he stayed on admirably well to finish fourth. 

Despite the strength of opposition that day, he wasn’t without support (SP 17/2) which must indicate that he was held in relatively high regard. Following that, he was targeted at the valuable Goffs Sales Bumper at Newbury – traditionally a very strong race. Sent off the 6/1 third-favourite, he was no match for the impressive Regent’s Stroll but ran a fine race to finish eighth where only three-and-a-half lengths separated second to eighth.  

Given one run in a Junior Hurdle at the end of the season, he was given a patient ride and finished a good second to Knight Of Allen, who made most of the running. The form looks solid for a race of it’s nature: the winner had been highly tried and had finished second to 131-rated Liari in a listed race, while the third (also prominent throughout) had hurdling experience and ran out a ready winner of a Novice Hurdle next time out.  

Only a four-year-old, there should be plenty more to come from Authentic Legacy and I like that they didn’t over face him last term. The experience should serve him well, and given he’s by Authorized out of a Presenting mare, he was always going to be more of a long-term prospect rather than a horse that is at their best in Junior Bumpers. His three half-siblings have proven effective over intermediate trips, and I expect him to follow suit in time. Watch out for him in Novice company earlier in the season, and for when he moves into handicaps.  

Trainer: Mel Rowley

Conditions: Handicap Chases over three miles.

It’s great that the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings still grace the track; and with young, promising horses like Favour And Fortune, hopefully that will be the case for years to come.

Another young horse in the famous colours is Best Life – and he would be firmly in the category of the embryonic chaser that Mr Hemmings loved so much.

His first couple of starts were not much to shout about; beaten a combined eighty-one lengths, there was a glimmer of promise but he was clearly a work in progress. His third start was definitely a step in the right direction, however, staying on into third behind a couple of decent types. He was a 150/1 for that particular race, and kept on well to pull clear of the remainder despite never being on terms with the leaders.

Allocated an opening mark of 100, for his handicap debut he was stepped up to three-miles for the first time which looked sure to suit, and put in a career best effort to finish a clear second. He was unfortunate to bump into a clear handicap blip in the form of One Big Bang, who won in novice company on his next start and is now rated eighteen-pounds higher than he was when Best Life ran against him.

Upped four-pounds for that run, which is perhaps a tad on the harsh side, it was confirmation that he is an improving horse and one that will invariably be at his best as a staying chaser; he did win a Point-to-Point (although he was subsequently disqualified for carrying the wrong weight) and he’s a half-brother to the useful stayer Reigning Supreme while his dam is out of a maiden half-sister to Gold Cup winner, Garrison Savannah.

Mel Rowley has a very impressive 21% strike-rate with chasers (A/E 1.28) and she has an archetypal staying chaser on her hands here. From an opening mark of 104, I would hope there is plenty of improvement to come - as does the trainer.

Mel Rowley says: “We were very happy with his progression last season, he improved run by run and without a doubt I am sure we will see his best when he goes over a fence, he definitely is the type of horse that the late Trevor Hemmings liked and has 3 mile chaser stamped all over him. His jumping at home has been very impressive, he is very straight forwards and we are excited to see where that may take him. He does prefer a softer surface but I think that as he strengthens more he will find more gears to cope with slightly quicker ground and we definitely feel that he still has a lot of potential to pull at.”

Trainer: Nicky Henderson. 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

A horse we only saw once under rules last season, but I think he will develop into a very useful novice hurdler over intermediate trips and beyond. 

Second in his sole Irish Point-to-Point start in December 2023, he was odds on for that race indicating that hopes were high. While he couldn’t get his head in front, he ran a race full of promise in the pouring rain; the eventual winner, Going Live, had an experience edge and made all of the running, with Califet En Vol the only runner to get close to him. Going Live sold for £150,000, is now with Gordon Elliott and won on his hurdling debut while the distant third, Kilmore Rock, also won on hurdling debut.  

Califet En Vol sold for £145,000 at the Tatts Cheltenham Sale in December, moving to Nicky Henderson to begin his rules career. Given the timing of the sale, it wasn’t surprising that we had to wait until the end of the season to see him makes his stable debut, which came at Ayr in the bumper on Scottish National day (watch above).  

It’s traditionally a strong race, and one that both Nicky Henderson and the McNeill family have run some smart types in: the trainer won it with Pym & William Henry, while the owners have had Masaccio & Senior Citizen go close.  

It looked a good renewal on paper, with top yards represented, and Califet En Vol ran with plenty of credit to finish third, beaten just under five-lengths by the promising Gordon Elliott trained, Jazz De Cotte. Closer to last than first upon turning for home, he kept responding to Nico De Boinville’s urgings, lacking the finishing burst of the winner but finding plenty under pressure. 

By Califet, his dam won over three-miles and he is from the family of the smart staying hurdler, Pike’s Peak, trained by Nicky Henderson in the 1980’s. His pedigree, combined with what we saw from his point-to-point and his bumper, suggests he has the potential to make up into a smart stayer in his own right. While Nicky Henderson’s hurdling debutants often go off a short price, he has a remarkable 30% strike-rate with such types since 2003, and have still been profitable to back blind despite their typically prohibitive odds.  

Trainer: Harry Derham.

Conditions: Handicap Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

Noel Fehily, David Crosse and their syndicate members have enjoyed a great deal of success since the syndicate’s formation five years ago, with 80 winners in total, including a Grade 1 victory. 

And while Casual Observer hasn’t added to the tally of winners as of yet, I’m expecting plenty of improvement this season.  

He ran okay in a bumper on his rules debut, but connections quickly decided to go hurdling as he was clearly not a bumper type. His debut over hurdles was encouraging, finishing a respectable second to Lord Of Thunder (who I also have high hopes for), staying on from off the pace in testing conditions. 

His next assignment was tougher – a competitive novice hurdle at Ascot that fellow Winless Ones To Watch member, Juventus De Brion, finished third in. Casual Observer could only manage fifth, but it was not a bad run under the circumstances and although he failed to beat a rival home on his final start of the season, he was only beaten eight-and-a-half lengths in a run that was not devoid of promise.  

Reading Harry Derham’s blog, in which he gives his thoughts about his runners each day, there is a theme when it comes to Casual Observer: immature, horse for next season, improve with time, still quite weak – labels all attached to Casual Observer, while he also vocalised prior to his final run that “he’s a beautiful horse; big, immature horse…but we’re looking at him as a long-term prospect”. 

The experience he picked up last season should prove invaluable, and with a mark of 109, it would be disappointing if couldn’t make his mark in handicaps. He finished second to last season’s Dublin Racing Festival Bumper winner, Jeroboam Machin, in his sole point-to-point, so there are plenty of reasons to believe there is more to come. 

Trainer: Chris Gordon

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-miles and further.

Chris Gordon has done remarkably well with relatively low-cost horses in recent seasons. Such success has seen some more expensive recruits enter the yard – and one such horse is Chesh, who was purchased for £140,000 as a three-year-old and races in the colours of long-term yard supporters, Richard and Carol Cheshire.

By Getaway, who I must confess is not my favourite sire, the dam side of his page does contain a rather notable name: Binocular, who is a half-brother to the unraced dam of Chesh. That goes someway to explaining the price tag!

Chris Gordon has stressed on multiple occasions that, despite his good strike-rate in bumpers, that they are not a priority for him, particularly on debut. He has an 8% strike-rate with bumper debutants (A/E 0.76), compared to a 17% strike-rate (A/E 1.16) for his runners with at least one previous start to their name.

Chesh made his racecourse debut in late-February 2024, which was a tad surprising as his trainer had previously stated in stable tour that he was likely to run in April. Despite only coming sixth of nine, he shaped well enough for a long way and, as previously mentioned, Chris Gordon’s record with first time out bumper runners lends itself to the belief that there’s plenty of improvement to come.

Described as “a really big horse” and “a three-miler chaser in a couple of years’ time”, I suspect we’ll see him take a big step forward once sent hurdling and hopefully, given his ordinary bumper form, he can pop up at a big price in a Maiden or Novice Hurdle early in the season.

Trainer: Willie Mullins. 

Conditions: Novice/Handicap Hurdles over two-miles on good ground. 

It’s not easy to get a Willie Mullins horse on this list, such is his habit of winning, but Ethical Diamond is a rare exception. 

And yet going into last season, there was a lot of talk about him being a live Triumph Hurdle contender; purchased for 320,000gns after an impressive victory in a maiden on the flat. Described as “a gorgeous horse” that would hopefully be one to take them to Cheltenham and Royal Ascot. He duly did just that but Willie also called him “a backward type” that “will improve a lot”.  

His hurdling debut came at Leopardstown over Christmas; sent off the 6/5 favourite, conditions were gruelling and he was looked after having raced keenly. Expectations were seemingly not dampened, as his next assignment came in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival where he put in a much-improved performance to finish sixth, only beaten five-lengths having come from off the pace. Kargese and Majborough would frank that form at Cheltenham. 

Speaking of Cheltenham, Ethical Diamond was tipped by many as a live outsider heading into the Triumph, but the ground turned heavy and he is undoubtedly a horse that prefers a sounder surface. He would prove that to be the case in his two subsequent flat runs, finishing a close second on handicap debut to a subsequent winner before a respectable fourth at Royal Ascot, where he paid for being too keen and racing wide throughout. 

Ethical Diamond retains his novice status for this season which opens up a world of possibilities. A Maiden Hurdle should prove a formality on good ground, and I suspect he will be campaigned in Graded company thereafter. However, I can’t help but feel that a race like the County Hurdle could prove an ideal long-term target: connections won it with Absurde last year, and while I don’t think Ethical Diamond will be one of Willie’s top novice hurdlers, it’s not difficult to envisage him replicating Absurde.  

Salvator Mundi would be another in this category but given he’s already as short as 14/1 for the Supreme having bolted up in a Maiden Hurdle in May, he only gets a cursory mention as this column is intended to look beyond the obvious.  

Trainer: Paul Nicholls.

Conditions: Handicap Hurdles over intermediate trips.

Another French recruit for Paul Nicholls that plenty was expected from last season. 

He was only purchased at the end of September 2023 and so would not have had much time to acclimatise which leads me to expect (and hope!) that there is more to come from him on these shores. 

A very smart stayer on the flat, he finished second in a Group Three on his final start in France so it was hardly surprising that he was sent off a relatively short price on his hurdling debut. That came at Newbury in late January, a time when the yard are not normally at their peak, but he shaped well for a long way before fading on the long run in, eventually finishing fourth but shaping better than the margin of defeat. 

A non-runner in the Dovecote due to soft ground, he was given a speculative Supreme entry but we would have to wait until May before he reappeared. Stepped up to two-miles-and-five-furlongs, he was notably weak in the betting which is worth noting. Fasol and two of Nicky Henderson’s, Ideal Des Bordes and Gentleman’s Relish, pulled well clear of the rest, with Fasol splitting the Henderson duo. The form is difficult to assess as that pair have been very inconsistent, but they do have some very solid form to their names and I’m taking the positive view that both ran right up to their best, considering they pulled well clear of a rival rated 112 at the time. 

Fasol did make one appearance over the summer, finishing a respectable fourth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot in a first tongue-tie. He’ll find much easier opportunities back over hurdles, particularly as he’s been allocated an opening mark of 108. Given he’s currently rated 100 on the flat, there’s every chance he could make a mockery of that rating considering there are reasons to mark up his runs from last season.  

Paul Nicholls will no doubt find plenty of suitable opportunities for him – given his preference for a sounder surface, expect to see him out early in the season, possibly at the likes of Wincanton and Taunton.  

Trainer: Dan Skelton.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

Dan Skelton had a few notable bumper horses last season – Royal Infantry and Let It Rain chief amongst them; but with his Tenacious attitude, Jack Black is one I’m keen to keep onside. 

He made his racecourse debut in a bumper at Exeter, staying on well despite clear signs of greenness to finish a promising third; the front two both had an experience edge and while the winner, Quebecois, was well on top, he was thought good enough to contest the Champion Bumper next time out, so this was a promising start to Jack Black’s career. 

His second bumper start (watch above) resulted in another respectable third-place finish, showing a good level of progression. The front three pulled nicely clear and the form is solid; the winner, Bill Joyce, bolted up on his next start and went off 7/1 for the Champion Bumper, while the second, Clap of Thunder, was in receipt of thirteen-pounds and was subsequently beaten a similar distance in a listed race. 

Not your typical bumper horse on looks or pedigree, it wasn’t surprising to see his third and final start of the season come over hurdles. His debut came over obstacles came in a strong race on paper, but it was run at a slow gallop with the first two being 1-2 throughout. Yet again, Jack Black finished third, doing much the best of those who raced further back under an educational ride.  

He can now embark on a full season of Novice Hurdling, and he should be the type that will improve with time. His dam is a half-sister to Vic De Touzaine, a useful three-mile chaser who reached a mark of 139 – I suspect Jack Black will also end up being a staying chaser, but he’s one to note over hurdles beforehand. He should be more than capable of winning a maiden/novice early on in the season, and it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.  

Trainer: Dan Skelton.

Conditions: Novice/handicap hurdles over two and a half miles and further.

In truth, Juventus De Brion was the first name I had on my provisional list having been notably eyecatching on both of his starts last season. 

He made his racecourse debut at Exeter as a raw four-year-old against far more experienced rivals and yet he had his supporters in the market, eventually going off at 11/2. 

Ridden wide and with patience, the race was dominated by those that raced prominently. Only Juventus De Brion was able to make up ground from off the pace, eventually finishing a never-nearer third. 

It was a highly encouraging run from a debutant, and one that left the impression he would improve for the experience and for stepping up in trip. 

He missed a couple of intended engagements due to unsuitable ground (good, heavy) before eventually reappearing at Ascot in a competitive novices’ hurdle previously won by the likes of Dashel Drasher, Sporting John and Yala Enki. 

Sent off at 18/1, he was ridden in a similar style to Exeter. And, yet again, he finished a distant third with the 1-2-4 having been in the front three throughout the majority of the race. 

That looks a strong piece of form: The winner, Pic Roc, is now rated 132 and finished second in the EBF Final. Runner-up Inthewaterside finished third at the Aintree festival and is also rated 132, while the fourth home, Vincenzo, is now on a mark of 120. 

It was notable that before the race, Dan Skelton noted in a blog that “it wouldn’t be the end of the world” if he is still a novice next season and that “a full season of novice hurdling would be ideal”. 

All being well, that is exactly what they’ll get. He has been given an opening mark of 120, which would make plenty of appeal if going down that route, but I suspect he will stick to novice company in the early stages of the season to gain experience. 

Quite how far he can go remains to be seen, but he should be more than capable of winning a maiden/novice. Given connections, I can envisage high-quality handicaps being on the agenda once he acquires the necessary experience. 

Trainer: Harry Fry. 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles.

Kap Ouest featured in plenty of trackers heading into last season, despite being unraced, due largely to Racing TV’s Mark Howard naming him as a “Top 40 prospect” in his excellent “One Jump Ahead” publication. 

We didn’t have long to wait to see the well-bred son of Kapgarde, as he made his racecourse debut at Chepstow in October. Notably weak in the betting, drifting to 12/1, he ran a race full or promise to finish a clear third having come from off the pace while the front two were prominent throughout. It’s a race I’m hoping will work out well in the long term, with the likes of Tripoli Flyer (fifth) and Dartmoor Pirate (seventh) already giving it a boost. 

It would be over six-months till we would see Kap Ouest again, and he would reappear over hurdles sporting a first-time hood. Again, he was incredibly weak in the market, drifting from 7/2 out to 8/1 – the signs were ominous for his backers. For a Maiden Hurdle in May, it was a decent race: the winner was fourth in the Aintree Grade 2 bumper on his previous start and won under a penalty thereafter, while the third looked promising having bolted up in a bumper when last seen. Kap Ouest finished a good second and, in truth, nothing went right for him. An early faller led to a loose horse causing chaos upfront, which subsequently led to a slow pace as none of the riders wanted to chance going alongside the wayward jumping loose horse. Kap Ouest was keen throughout and forced wide with little cover, so this is a run that can be marked up. Keep an eye on the winner, Valgrand, as he looks very well handicapped off 118. 

Given we only saw him twice and at large intervals, it’s likely he had a setback which also explains his market weakness last time out. He did look a work in progress, so time can only be his friend and he should have plenty of scope to progress.  

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien. 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-miles and further. 

Despite having his lowest number of winners for four seasons, Fergal O’Brien enjoyed a successful 2023/24 season: a second Grade 1 winner thanks to Crambo undoubtedly the highlight, while the yards strike rate was a healthy 17% (and backing them all would have yielded a 3% ROI). 

But interestingly, the yards performance in bumpers was notably down across all metrics. From the 2020/21 to 2022/23 seasons, the mean number of bumpers runners was 83, resulting in an average of 12 winners (14% strike-rate). Last season, however, there were only 42 runners and 3 winners (7% strike-rate); Horaces Pearl won twice, including at the Aintree festival and Tripoli Flyer won an all-weather bumper before finishing second at the Aintree festival.  

Perhaps this is indicative of a more patient, quality over quantity approach. With that said, while Oak Grove failed to win a bumper, there could be a lot more to come. 

Bought for £250,000 after winning his second Point-to-Point, the most expensive purchase Fergal has bought in the ring, he was keen to temper expectations; in an early-season stable tour, he said “you won’t see him much this year. There’s no rush with him… he’s a big horse and his future lies ahead of him”. 

He duly made his bumper debut in a deep race at Ascot, staying on well under a patient ride to finish fifth having been tenth turning for home. He was notably weak in the betting so all in all, this was a pleasing introduction and the race has worked out quite well. 

He reappeared four-and-a-half months later having been a non-runner on deep ground three times, which perhaps is a sign that they were very much minding him last season. This time, he was ridden positively but was no match for the smart Castle Ivers. 

Subsequently sold as part of the Chris Giles dispersal sale, Fergal bought him back for £60,000 and is no doubt was delighted to keep him in the yard. His dam is a full sister to Voler La Vedette and Molineux, a half-sister to Hennessy while Shishkin & Good Boy Bobby also feature in her lineage. I expect him to take a big step forward now hurdling, and he should improve for going up in trip. Good ground is seemingly important to him. 

Trainer: Katy Price.

Conditions: Novice hurdles over two miles and further. 

Labelled in an Instagram post as “our new stable star of the future", Peacenik made his racecourse debut in a heavy ground bumper at Exeter against some well-regarded types, including the much-vaunted Teeshan. 

He was no match for that rival, but he was a clear second and ran a race full of promise, making great headway from off the pace despite signs of greenness. 

Katy Price has only ever had one bumper winner: Lucca Lady in 2017, who already had three bumper runs in Ireland before joining the yard. 

Prior to Peacenik, only one of her 26 bumper debutants had placed, highlighting the significance of this performance. 

He shaped similarly on his second and most recent start, staying on from off the pace to chase home a ready winner. On both occasions he has proved he handles heavy ground, which bodes well for the future. 

While he is a half-brother to a two-mile hurdle winner and has shown a degree of pace thus far, he will undoubtedly be better over further; by Mount Nelson, he’s out of an Old Vic mare who is half-sister to the dam of Next Destination – all of which screams stamina. 

He’s reportedly 17.2hh, so we can expect to see him over a fence in time. I may be going a year early on Peacenik when you consider Katy Price’s strike-rate with hurdlers is 4.8% and 11.4% with chasers, but he clearly has a lot of potential and is undoubtedly an exciting prospect for a small team. 

Trainer: Henry Daly.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over intermediate or staying trips.

Henry Daly wouldn’t be known for bumper winners. Of his 11 bumper runners last season, Roaring Home was the only one to manage a place. His strike-rate with fillies/mares in bumpers is 6%, with no winner since 2021; all of which reflects well on the achievements of Roaring Home last season.

Making her debut just after the turn of the year, she was well supported at big odds before the race, shortening from 20/1 into 9/1. Held up, she showed signs of greenness with Richard Patrick having to nudge her into the bridle intermittently. However, she made good progress from off the pace, closing all the way to the line to finish a clear second. The winner and third had winning Point-to-Point experience and a bumper run under their belts, so this was a highly encouraging run.

Boyed by that effort, she was set a tougher task on her next start, running in a Class 2 at Ascot. Held up again, she kept on stoutly to finish a respectable fourth, but couldn’t match the speed of the impressive winner Anno Power, who would win again at Cheltenham’s April meeting next time out.

Her third and final start of the season came at Southwell at May; not normally the type of race you’d look to for horses to keep on side, but this particular contest looks well above average now. Ridden more prominently, she pulled nicely clear with the eventual winner – Gale Mahler, who has won her five subsequent starts. The third, who was six-lengths adrift of the front two, set a good level of form having finished a sixth-length fifth behind Anno Power at Cheltenham in April.

Roaring Home looks a useful hurdling prospect, and she should improve for stepping up in trip; her dam reached a mark of 125 and won over two-miles-and-five-furlongs, and she’s a sister to two other winners over intermediate trips.

Henry Daly’s strike rate with mares in Maiden/Novice hurdlers is 14% (A/E 1.07). Diving into this further, it would appear that they generally improve with experience; on their first or second run

over hurdles, they operate at a 7% strike-rate (A/E 0.79). However, on their third run and beyond, they operate at a 22% strike-rate (A/E 1.23), which is something to keep in mind.

I’m no race planner, but I can envisage her running in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle at Newbury in March. Should this happen by some miracle, you heard it here first!

Trainer: Nicky Richards.

Conditions: Novice hurdles over two miles (and further).

In the 10 seasons prior to the 2023/24 season, Nicky Richards operated at an impressive 24% strike-rate in bumpers, and you would have made a 14% ROI backing them blind to a level stake. 

But last season proved less fruitful: in those 10 seasons, the lowest number of bumpers winners was three; but the 2023/24 season produced only one winner. 

With that in mind, my interest was piqued by Robby, who shaped very well on his sole start last season - for all that a second-of-four finish in a heavy-ground Carlisle bumper wouldn not leap off the page. 

Robby was settled in last while the experienced favourite, Gamesters Guy, led at a steady tempo. 

As the race began to develop, Robby made smooth headway as the others struggled to go with them. Gamesters Guy led going best as Robby was driven, but he kept on well in tough conditions for a debutant - despite wandering across the track - finishing a clear second. 

The winner had already shown a good level of bumper form, winning on debut before finishing third in a strong race at Aintree on Boxing Day, while the well-beaten third had also run to a good level in two previous starts. 

The Greystoke handler has trained all six sons/daughters of the dam, whose progeny include Rubytwo, Amberose and, most notably, Nells Son. 

With that in mind, he should develop into a useful novice hurdler and shouldn’t have an issue staying two and a half miles, although I suspect he may start over two miles. 

Trainer: Lucinda Russell.

Conditions: Handicap hurdles/chases over two and a half miles and further.

Second in two Irish point-to-points behind a couple of smart types, shaping very much like a stayer, Tommys Law was snapped up for £75,000 by Lucinda Russell. 

I’m sure it was more than just his encouraging point-to-point form that inspired the purchase, as Tommys Law is out of a half-sister to Do It For Dalkey and from the family of Silver By Nature.

Both of whom are trained by Russell and flourishing as staying chasers, with the latter reaching a peak mark of 156. 

Hopes were high for Tommys Law coming into last season. Jodie Standing, author of the superb Point-to-Point Recruits which is published ahead of each season, highlighted him as one to keep a very close eye on. 

He was subsequently sent off 3/1 for his Rules and bumper debut on heavy ground at Carlisle, but could only manage a distant fifth. 

It’s easy to forgive that run given the conditions, though, and clearly he was not fully fired up given wind surgery and a 117-day absence followed. 

Switched to hurdling with a tongue-tie fitted, another heavy defeat followed, but he took a notable step forward to finish second at Ayr next time out, staying on well over two miles.

The form is modest but it was a run that augured well for the future. 

Last seen at the Perth Festival in late April, he would have been an impressive winner of a novice hurdle if a certain Willie Mullins had not been in the process of securing the British trainers’ title. 

Tommys Law was no match for the useful Stoke The Fire, who won easily, but Russell's inmate did at least try and make a race of it in finishing a respectable second. 

With an opening mark of 112, I expect him to make an impact in handicaps, particularly once stepped up in trip. 

He will be of strong interest over fences, should connections decide to go down that route – and I hope they do given his point-to-point experience and his pedigree. 

Trainer: Jane Williams.

Conditions: Handicap Chases over intermediate trips.

By Manatee, a relatively new sire that Jane Williams has taken an early interest in, Tout Sur Moi has shown flashes of potential – and I hope that his trainer’s traditional patient approach will yield rewards.

He made his debut in a bumper in March 2023, and wasn’t without support, but raced far too keenly and ultimately paid the price. Still, it wasn’t a bad run, and connections clearly thought enough of him to make his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham in October; he could only finish eleventh, but showed up well for a long way before fading having again been keen in the early stages.

Switched to hurdling at the turn of the year, all three runs came over two-miles on sharp tracks (Tanton and Ludlow). In truth, he shaped similarly on all three occasions: often outpaced, he stuck on well under pressure and was staying on at the line. That was notably the case on his most recent run – jumping the last in sixth, the better part of twenty-lengths adrift, he gained three places on the run in to finish third.

With those three runs behind him, he’s now eligible for handicaps and he’ll begin the season on a mark of 106. On what he’s achieved, you can only say that mark is fair at best, but he clearly

has a lot of potential to improve once he’s upped in trip; his dam won over intermediate trips and is a half-sister to a couple of smart types.

Keep an eye out for him on handicap debut over an intermediate trip; connections had a similar type in Pepe Le Moko last season who improved twenty-pounds going up in trip over fences. Chester Williams noted the comparison in terms of on-course profile, although did say that they weren’t particularly similar horses. It remains to be seen whether Tout Sur Moi can be as progressive as Pepe Le Moko.

Chester Williams: “We’re positive about Tout Sur Moi. He’s done nicely enough so far and has progressed with every run. He’s only five still and was a bit of a frame last season but has filled out plenty over the summer. Now he’s got a handicap mark, he will go up in trip as he suggested he wants further and is bred for further. Chasing is the plan as well, as he jumps well and that should bring improvement.

Trainer: Paul Nicholls.

Conditions: Novice hurdles over two miles. 

Paul Nicholls often has a strong squad of juvenile hurdlers and last season was no exception, with the likes of Kalif Du Berlais, Kabral Du Mathan and Liari leading the way. 

It’s well known that Nicholls takes a long-term view with his juveniles, with them achieving a fair level of form in their younger years before excelling in the future. 

Tutti Quanti was held in high regard coming into last season, and while he didn’t achieve as much as the other aforementioned Nicholls-trained juveniles, his novice status over hurdles remains intact, which is highly advantageous. 

Once-raced in France, he came from off the pace to finish a creditable second in a race that has worked out well. The winner, Kit Raffles, won next time out, while the third and fourth have won multiple times since. In fact, the fourth, Diyashal, beat Kit Raffles in a Listed chase. 

Purchased thereafter for Colm Donlan, we had to wait until January to see him make his British debut, which came in maiden hurdle at Taunton. 

Racing against his elders, he travelled smoothly into the lead but just failed to repel the challenge of Joyeuse, a well-regarded mare who is out of a half-sister to Epatante. 

The form is somewhat difficult to assess, as neither the first or second have been seen since. But the third, Into The Park, did win his next two starts and is now rated 125. 

Perhaps, considering Tutti Quanti was in receipt of 13lb from Into The Park, an opening mark of 125 is on the harsh side, even accounting for his solid French form. 

But he’s unlikely to run in handicaps at the start of the season and I think he can take high rank as a Novice. 

Described by Paul Nicholls as “next year’s horse” when discussing whether or not he’ll run at Cheltenham, he’s seemingly held in high regard at Ditcheat and the experience he’s accumulated should hold him in good stead.  

Trainer: David Pipe.

Conditions: Handicap Chases over two-and-a-half miles and further. 

The lowest-rated horse to feature on this list, Vision De Maine will begin the season from a mark of 89 - which I hope can be exploited, particularly over fences. 

An impressive winner of a small field Irish Point-to-Point on firm ground (although I confess that the form hasn’t worked out well), he was purchased for £95,000 at the 2023 Tatts Cheltenham Festival sale and now runs in the colours of Professor Caroline Tisdall.  

His rules debut was an encouraging one; not without market support, he finished second in a Sedgefield bumper which was well above the average standard for a race of that nature. He was no match for Brechin Castle, one of the top British bumper horses last season, but finished a respectable second and the third went on to win his next two starts over hurdles. 

His hurdling debut was not so convincing, although it came on bottomless ground at Chepstow over two-and-a-half miles which looked to be too demanding at that stage of his career. While he was beaten a combined fifty-four lengths on his next two starts, which were both over two-miles, there were more encouraging signs and I suspect his run in April (after nearly three-months off the track) was to ensure he had a handicap mark in preparation for next season. 

By Buck’s Boum, who’s progeny tend to excel over fences, his dam won over fences in France and while she is a half-sister to Group 1 flat horse Vision D’Etat, Vision De Maine looks more about stamina. Given his profile, it would be disappointing if he couldn’t progress beyond his lowly mark of 89. There are definitely risks attached with this selection, but there’s sufficient potential upside to justify his inclusion. 

Trainer: Sam Thomas.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles and further.

I’m a big fan of Sam Thomas, who has built a remarkably consistent yard over the past few years, operating at a 21% strike-rate across the last four seasons. The only issue for me is that there often aren’t many potential qualifiers for this list!

It’s likely that only an injury setback stopped Walk In The Hills from registering a win last season, as he clearly has plenty of ability based on what we’ve seen thus far.

He made his debut at Chepstow in October on ground officially described as good to soft – but it looked much harder work than that. Paul Nicholls won the race for the third time in four years; previous winners were Stage Star & Henri The Second, and while this year’s winner, Captain Bellamy, has disappointed since, I would still rate him as a good prospect for the future. Walk In The Hills could only manage second, but it was a promising debut and there were some nice types in behind.

Well backed to win on his next start, again at Chepstow, he could only manage third but the testing conditions didn’t look to suit.

In a stable tour, Sam Thomas was overwhelmingly complimentary: describing him as “ a lovely rangy type (who is) going to be a lovely horse next season”. He also mentioned that he’s one for decent ground as he “is such a good mover”, backing up the idea that the ground was against him on his most recent start.

By Walk In The Park, he’s a half-brother to the high-class Invitation Only and he was purchased for €120,000 as a three-year-old; on paper, there’s a lot to like and he should improve again for hurdling and better ground.

Trainer: Laura Morgan.

Conditions: Handicap Chases over two-and-a-half-miles and further.

Laura Morgan has built a good operation at the family home of Foxfield Stud over the past few years, and the yard had performed consistently well in previous seasons, averaging a 17% strike-rate (A/E 1.05) & 33 winners across the 2020/21, 2021/22 to 2022/23 seasons. 

Last season, however, was a difficult one, marred by the tragic loss of Notlongtillmay. On top of that, the yard weren’t firing as they had been in previous seasons: 12 winners and just a 7% strike-rate, which is a notable drop-off.  

There’s every reason to expect a reversion to the mean, and they may well have some well-handicapped horses this season. 

Step forward, Wild Side of Life. Third to a couple of smart types in two Irish Point-to-Points in 2022 (Ballyburn & Southoftheborder), he got off the mark at the third time of asking in April 2023 before selling for £60,000. 

He made an encouraging rules debut behind Cherie D’am (rated 131, third in the Sefton) before unseating at Cheltenham less than two weeks later, which was an overly ambitious bit of placing. Next seen at Sedgefield, he was sent off the 9/4 favourite but could only manage second, headed after the last having drifted across the track. It looks a solid if unexceptional piece of form: he was giving three-pounds to the winner, who had run well behind some smart types in Act of Authority & Cannock Park and is now rated 117, and ten-pounds to the third who is now rated 110. This makes Wild Side of Life’s mark of 111 look potentially exploitable. 

His last run is one to forgive: running in a three-mile handicap hurdle on very deep ground, carrying over twelve-stone after 100-days off the track, he understandably got tired late on. 

There should be more to come, particularly over fences considering his pointing experience, the style in which he jumped hurdles and pedigree: his dam won over fences and she is related to multiple chase winners, and his half-brother won on his Point-to-Point debut and has since finished second at the Punchestown Festival. 

Laura Morgan tends to excel with her chasers: her 18% strike-rate with runners over fences far exceeds her strike-rate with hurdles (8%). Something to note with a view to handicap chases: her strike-rate with handicap chase debutants is 13%, increasing to 18% and 36% on their second and third handicap chase start.