Tony Calvin struck with a 9-1 winner last week and has thre selections for Monday's action below.
A midday start at Redcar, what’s that all about?
These clocks going back an hour have got a lot to answer for.
As is often the case these days, the early start is due to an eight-race card, but the only bet that I can see at the meeting is a horse who is 5lb out of the handicap.
So step forward – or should I say swagger – Mitchum in the 3.25pm.
It always fascinates me when prices begin to appear from around 5pm the night before, and it was amusing to see the first bookmaker price up my selection at 15-2 and then the next six layers up all went either 7-1 and 15-2 in the following ten minutes.
Talking about great minds thinking alike!
We all know it is a large dose of copycat tactics but it is what it is, so let us get back to the horse’s claims.
As I have already mentioned, it is clearly not ideal that he is 5lb out of the weights but the ground at Redcar is going to be very testing and that will be a leveller.
And soft ground is good news for Mitchum, who has form figures of 312 on heavy, and the win came at this course. He completed a soft/heavy ground hat-trick last spring, and can also boast three good seconds at this track.
He comes here in decent nick, too, finishing fourth at Catterick last time. He effectively races off 51 here but don’t forget he was rated 67 at the start of the season, so I am not getting too hung up about the extra weight with conditions to suit.
The visor replaces the cheekpieces and he has run some good races in that headgear, including two placed efforts at this course. He rates a fair bet at the general 15-2.
Over at Leicester, there is a valuable 0-110 handicap at 1.20pm, in which Captain Morley initially interested me at around 14-1, but the 1.55pm, a 0-105 1m handicap, is not too shoddy, either, and I am backing Just Hiss at the general 8-1.
I was a little bit disappointed with him at York last time when he did not really travel into the race, but he clearly did not run badly when fifth there and his winning chance at Leicester rests on his previous Haydock run anyway.
He would have won there had he not lost three lengths at the start and made his move detached on the far side, and his narrow third to Century Dream was franked by the winner’s victory at Newbury on Saturday.
Off just a 1lb higher mark, he is handicapped to run a big race with Rachel Richardson (who won on him at York in July) taking another 3lb off.
There is some decent racing in Ireland, and the National Hunt card at Ayr looks worth a look.
It will be interesting to see if the talented Global Stage can bounce back to form on his reappearance in the opener, and it would not be the biggest surprise if 6-1 chance Captiva Island goes close on his stable/hurdling debut for Olly Murphy in the 2m novices’ hurdle at 2.05pm.
But the one I like as a betting proposition is Mileva Roller at 10-1 in the 3.15pm.
She is partnered by Daniel Samson in this conditional jockeys’ race and he was seen to good effect on Chesterfield, among others, last season, and I think he is on a fairly handicapped horse.
She was rated 97 in the summer when in the care of Jonjo O’Neill but is now down to 80, including a 3lb drop for her first run for her new stable over 2m4f at Sedgefield last time.
However, I thought she ran well there. She travelled well for a long way and stuck on pretty well. The step up to 3m could suit the mare. Her dam won over 3m and 3m2f for David Pipe, after all.
The soft ground is a worry but her talented half-brother The Liquidator loved it, and her dam arguably ran her best race on it. At the prices, she is worth backing.
Tony Calvin’s Monday bets: (Prices correct at 9.30am)
1.55 Leicester: Just Hiss at a generally available 8-1
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