Tom Thurgood's runner-by-runner guide to the Betfair Hurdle

Betfair Super Saturday looms large and the Grade Three Betfair Hurdle is the £155,000 highlight on a cracking card from Newbury live on Racing TV.

The maximum 24 runners have been declared for Britain’s most valuable handicap hurdle and, here, we take a closer look at all the contenders.

Trainer: Willie Mullins. Weight: 10st 8lb. Odds: 12-1

Yet to win in six career starts, the five-year-old has shaped with some promise in all three runs for Mullins and jumped with real speed and accuracy down the back at Limerick last time.

However, although unlucky in the closing stages he was turned over at 1-4 and you get the feeling connections are eyeing novice status for next season now. While a mark of 135 may be workable in time, he has more to prove that his price suggests and Mullins has a poor record in this race with just one placed effort from 17 starters since 1997.

Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Weight: 10st 11b. Odds: 25-1

A professional type who mostly jumps well, he won twice over hurdles at the start of the season after running on nicely in the Triumph in the previous campaign.

A disappointing favourite when beaten by 17 lengths in Grade Two company at Cheltenham, that form has not worked out brilliantly and he doesn’t look especially well-treated from a mark of 138. However, better ground at the weekend makes appeal and Bryony Frost is one from one on the five-year-old.

He generally finds well and is expected to run a tidy race without troubling the principal contenders.

Trainer: Dan Skelton. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 28-1

Lightly-raced with just three starts in Britain, he was a creditable second on handicap debut last time on his seasonal return at Wetherby.

That Class 3 event has thrown up three subsequent winners but this is a big step-up and his lack of experience is a concern against classier rivals who have achieved significantly more than the competition he has faced so far.

Dan Skelton has saddled three runners in the race and got the third with Spiritofthegames two years ago.

Trainer: Philip Hobbs. Weight: 11st 12lb. Odds: 33-1

This likeable type has a good strike-rate under Rules and the return to better ground could bring about improvement. Despite his achievements, he’s still only six.

A Listed winner at Ascot earlier in the season and a close second to Harambe in the Greatwood when conceding 5lbs, good claimer Ben Jones takes the ride again and he gets on well with this horse.

However; note that big weights have proved a barrier to Betfair Hurdle glory in recent years. Since 1997, no top-weight has won the race and horses carrying 11st 10lbs or more are yet to score in that timeframe (four placed from 24 runners).

Trainer: Alan King. Weight: 11st 3lb. Odds: 18-1

A strong-staying two-miler who exemplified that trait in a gritty Greatwood Hurdle success last time, Harambe brings competitive handicap form to the table against plenty of rivals lightly-raced outside of novice company.

His jumping is improving, but he can hit one or two during a round and he hasn’t been missed by the handicapper from a mark of 144.

Trainer: Emma Lavelle. Weight: 10st 6lb. Odds: 20-1

Three from four over hurdles and a good winner on handicap debut last time, the seven-year-old has US Flat experience and has won several times on quick ground.

With the forecast set fair, connections are likely to get the best ground they could have feasibly hoped for and a 10lbs rise is merited after running away from his rivals at Huntingdon last time with the form proving not bad. A keen-going and enthusiastic type, there should be a decent pace on here and Jonjo O’Neill Jnr is a good booking in the saddle. He makes more appeal than most.

Trainer: Harry Fry. Weight: 10st 10lb. Odds: 25-1

Lightly Squeeze nearly passed from colic a year ago but proved a revelation for connections over Christmas, racking up a hat-trick of wins inside 11 days and in fine style.

Taking up the running four furlongs from home in his last two successes, he was clearly in the form of his life but also well-placed by Harry Fry. From all the horses he beat, just two have won from 27 subsequent starts and from a mark of 110 he now races from 137.

There’s no knowing quite how good he is, but that 27lbs rise looks very significant placed in the content of jumping from Class 4 to Class 1 handicap. Rex Dingle takes off 3lbs.

Trainer: Evan Williams. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 6-1

A neat jumper who shaped better than his form suggested last season, the six-year-old has made a big impression in a currently unbeaten campaign this time.

His form has substance this term, hacking up from a mark of 115 on his return at Warwick with that contest working out and the runner-up now rated 137.

He again travelled all over his rivals at Sandown in Listed company last time and did find for pressure in the closing stages. Runner-up Protektorat is now rated 144, the third Song For Someone 154.

Mack The Man races from a mark of just 130 here and appeals as easily the best-handicapped horse in the race. His trainer and jockey are going really nicely and he has a big chance.

Trainer: Kerry Lee. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 66-1

The winner of a Flat maiden for Ralph Beckett, the eight-year-old couldn’t get his head in front for Charlie Longsdon but Kerry Lee got two quick wins out of him a few years ago from a mark of 113.

His last success was nearly two years ago, but he is a hard-knocking handicapper and does have form with Oakley if you look back far enough, that one a significantly shorter price here.

You could argue 66-1 might be too big, but not to the extent that you’d seriously consider backing him against younger, classier and more progressive rivals.

Trainer: Nicky Henderson. Weight: 11st 1lb. Odds: 33-1

The eight-year-old doesn’t have an especially compelling profile for this race; does he have enough speed and class to genuinely figure?

A tad keen in the EBF Final last season, he was well-positioned and travelled strongly at the end of the back straight and did well to rally for a close fourth after a bad mistake at the second-last. He's not the smoothest jumper and was scratchy at Cheltenham last April in a small-field novice race.

A winner on his return at Sandown, the form doesn’t seem particularly strong and an 8lbs rise looks harsh. He doesn’t make appeal from a mark of 144.

Trainer: Gary Moore. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 40-1

The only place to start here is the trainer’s outstanding record in this race – since 1997, three winners and 2 more placed from just 16 runners at an 18.7% strike-rate, £71 level stakes profit and performance 285% above market expectation (3.85 A/E).

Rated just 62 on the Flat, he’s done well over hurdles but is unraced outside of novice races over jumps and would likely prefer softer ground.

He was travelling as well as Ecco (25-1) approaching the last two starts back at Ascot and has run with credit in both defeats. A prominent position here rather than making the running will likely suit better and he can outrun his odds even if he seemingly doesn’t have the class to take a genuine hand in the finish.

Trainer: Tony Carroll. Weight: 11st 1lb. Odds: 66-1

Two from six over hurdles, he performed with credit last term as a juvenile with two victories and a fourth in the JCB Triumph Hurdle at the Festival.

Raised 8lbs for that, the handicapper has given him no slack from a rating of 142 despite two underwhelming efforts this season, the latest admittedly in the Grade One Fighting Fifth.

The Triumph form is decent and he’s not badly weighted strictly on that, though he’s struggled this term and this handicap debut looks more a throw of the dice from connections. Better ground may help him this time.

Trainer: Nicky Henderson. Weight: 10st 13lb. Odds: 17-2

One of the genuinely progressive sorts in the field, she is a sound jumper who creditably finds at the business end despite pulling with real ferocity in her races.

She built on a promising debut at Cheltenham last time at Kempton, quickly and impressively making ground on the leaders and winning with any amount on hand.

She has lots of ability and her stride points to a good horse; given she’s lightly-raced and progressive a mark of 140 looks feasible if not especially well-in.

Trainer: Hughie Morrison. Weight: 11st 3lb. Odds: 15-2

An exuberant front-runner rated 94 on the Flat, his jumping has improved in five hurdles starts and posted a career-best in the National Hunt sphere last time when slamming his rivals by nine lengths in Grade Three company at Ascot.

While not disputing the visual impression, he was racing from 10st 3lbs and a mark of 127 and has since received a whopping 17lbs rise in the handicap. From a mark of 122 at the start of the campaign, he races from 144 now and he will have competition for the lead here.

While he’s lightly-raced over jumps, no eight-year-old has won this for well over 20 years.

Trainer: Philip Hobbs. Weight: 10st 12lb. Odds: 12-1

The seven-year-old sticks to the task well at the end of races and his form at Cheltenham last time gives him place credentials here, giving weight to Never Adapt back in third and ultimately beaten by a four-year-old with the allowances.

While he’s posted several decent efforts, he’s gone up 7lbs this season for not getting his head in front and he looks more of an honest sort likely to run his race rather than a real improver from his current mark of 139.

Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Weight: 11st 5lb. Odds: 25-1

A horse with a big reputation that the trainer is particularly looking forward to over fences, his racecourse achievements are still ultimately a bit short at this early stage given the talk about him.

He shaped better than the result in the Triumph and likewise at Ascot on his return. He’s entitled to improve for that and the step down to two miles opens new possibilities but he doesn’t look well-treated from a mark of 146 on what he’s done so far.

He is the stable first-string from three representatives on jockey bookings.

Trainer: Evan Williams. Weight: 10st 6lb. Odds: 20-1

The lightly-raced six-year-old has just one victory from six starts under Rules on stable debut for Evan Williams in November 2018.

However, he is consistent and has posted two fair efforts in handicap company, notably when fourth in the Greatwood. He was brought down by Zanza last time in the Grade Three contest won by Not So Sleepy last time.

Although second-string on jockey bookings, champion-elect Brian Hughes takes the ride and this horse has more to offer even if his claims are not remotely as compelling as stablemate Mack The Man.

Trainer: Chris Gordon. Weight: 10st 12lb. Odds: 66-1

The 11-year-old is the most senior and most experienced jumper in the line-up and has plenty of good handicap form next to his name despite the big price here.

Last successful a year ago in decent company at Cheltenham, he subsequently finished second in the County Hurdle and he’s a strong stayer at this trip.

While competitive from marks in the mid-140s, Remiluc was disappointing on his return behind Mill Green at Sandown but he’s been dropped 5lbs for that. If that return run was with a view to this assignment, he is more interesting than the price suggests despite his advancing years in a race which does not particularly deep by Betfair Hurdle standards.

Drying ground is something of a concern for his chance, though.

Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 20-1

A likeable horse who has bounced back from a heavy fall at Chepstow on hurdles debut, he showed a smart turn of foot and jumped well at this course earlier in the season and stuck to his task well behind the impressive Ribble Valley two starts ago at Wetherby.

He is professional and relaxes well and on his novice form a mark of 130 looks workable. On handicap debut last time, he lost his position but ran on well for an admittedly distant third behind Not So Sleepy. He’s fancied to come on from that first foray in handicap company.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good Betfair Hurdle record with three winners and three places from 16 runners since 1997 (£25.50 level stakes profit, 131% above market expectation).

Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies. Weight: 11st 4lb. Odds: 12-1

The stable first-string on jockey bookings, he’s not the slickest jumper but is a strong-staying two-miler who arrives here after Grade Two success last time out.

He was really impressive when getting off the mark at Ffos Las in November and his form has strength and substance and his attitude appeals with a view to this competitive big-field handicap.

He races from a mark of 145, and while he doesn’t appeal as especially well-treated he looks more favourably weighted in comparison to rivals close to him in the weights here, such as Harambe and Mill Green.

Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Weight: 10st 3lb. Odds: 33-1

Inexperienced with just three career starts, he shaped nicely on debut behind smart novice Master Debonair and similarly travelled nicely and jumped well before stopping quickly behind Not So Sleepy back at Ascot last time.

He’s worth another chance and that initial try in handicap company may bring him on, though this looks a nice horse for the longer term rather than one particularly likely to strike in a race of this nature at this stage.

Trainer: Jamie Snowden. Weight: 11st. Odds: 9-1

This Listed winner certainly has an engine and has three wins from five starts over hurdles.

On the evidence of Haydock last time, he seems to jump better out in front but there looks plenty of competition for the lead here and there is a slight stamina question about him if this race is particularly well-run throughout.

He shaped better than the finishing position at Haydock given he suffered interference in the final half-furlong and his mark looks feasible at 141.

Although lightly-raced, seven-year-olds don’t have a great record here with three winners from 89 runners since 1997 (42% below market expectation).

Trainer: Phil Kirby. Weight: 10st 8lb. Odds: 33-1

The six-year-old has decent form in bumpers for Gordon Elliott and landed two novice hurdles on his first two starts for Phil Kirby last spring.

He is yet to win in three starts this season but posted a good effort in second behind Bold Plan at Haydock in November, even if that form hasn’t worked out quite as you would like.

His better form seems to coincide with better ground and he has outside place chances.

Trainer: Philip Hobbs. Weight: 10st 11lb. Odds: 50-1

He has a good strike-rate over hurdles with four victories from nine starts and it was too early to say how he might have fared last time when falling early behind Not So Sleepy at Ascot.

The better ground is likely to suit and he is two from two at Newbury, one of those efforts in a Class 2 race.

The six-year-old is a nice ride for 3lb claimer Sean Houlihan, although on the Greatwood form he is held by the likes of Gumball and Harambe. However, conditions here could reduce that seeming advantage and he’s not as forlorn a hope as the prices may suggest.

Mack The Man looks the best handicapped horse in the race and this renewal does not look the strongest Betfair Hurdle with a lack of lightly-raced improvers. He should probably be shorter than 6-1 for this assignment.

Never Adapt has her own way of doing things but has shaped with distinct ability in all three starts in Britain and she is fancied to run into the places, while the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair are fancied to go well with Sir Valentine slightly preferred over Stolen Silver given their respective weights and prices.