The Data Detective: clues, tips and hints for Saturday

Chasingouttheblues is a progressive young stayer and looks capable of a bold bid in the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday.

The Mark Walford-trained seven-year-old has established himself as the champion of lost causes this season, snatching unlikely victories at Wetherby, Catterick and Carlisle since Christmas. He looked beaten on each occasion, only to stay on stoutly to grab the spoils.

He was fastest in each of the final three furlongs at the last-named course on his latest start, which is becoming a trademark of his, and his jumping, which merited a Jump Index score of 7.6 out of 10, represented a new personal best. His superb leap at the last, which gained him 4.71 lengths, was pivotal in him overhauling Upfordebate and Fierce Warrior in the closing stages.

Chasingouttheblues has been pushed up 4lb for his latest success, but that will surely be offset by moving up to 4m, which looks certain to suit him given his profile and pedigree (related to The Stoyteller and Stellar Story on the dam’s side of his breeding). His low stride cadence, which has varied between 2.02 and 2.07 strides per second in his past four races, is also encouraging regarding him staying further.

Cheekpieces have added a little something to his game on his past two starts, and Jamie Hamilton, on board for all six of his career wins, is back on board. Moreover, seven-year-olds have won four of the past dozen editions of the race.

Bet365 make him 12-1 and he looks an each-way play, with five places on offer.

Isaac Des Obeaux, winner of the Midlands Grand National last month, and Ask Brewster, who had landed the Kim Muir 48 hours earlier, are sure to have their supporters. The latter gained about 17 lengths in the air but will need to be similarly athletic if he is to confirm his superiority over Road To Home, who was second, and Kim Roque, who kept on well from off the pace to be fourth.

Montregard, who has had a fruitful time at Ascot this season, may be an even bigger threat. The data points to him being a most assured jumper and his average stride cadence in his past eight races has been under two strides per second, hinting that moving up a mile in trip may not trouble him.

All In You got stuck in the mud when well fancied for the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last time but can bounce back under better conditions.

The ex-Flat racer has plenty of gears, as his impressive closing sectionals have highlighted.

He had previously swept from last to first when scoring at Sandown, completing the final two furlongs in 30.07sec. The next best in the field managed 30.87sec, with Dance In The Glance (second) and Hot Fuss (fourth) subsequently franking the form.

All In You would have achieved a similar swoop at Ascot the time before, too, but for making an error at the final flight. That day he motored through the final two furlongs in 28.49sec, while the winner took 29.34sec.

He is 5lb wrong at the weights but his present mark almost certainly underestimates him. His jumping is a bigger niggle – his Career Jump Index score of 6.7 is the worst in the line-up - but that is offset by his double-figure price. He looks a solid each-way candidate.

Irish raider World Of Fortunes is favourite for this mares’ handicap hurdle after her win at Kelso last time but her jumping is a worry. 

Her Career Jump Index score of 5.7 out of 10 is lowest in the field, and she’s lost ground jumping in all 12 of her hurdle races (she was even worse when tried over fences). Her average loss has been about eight lengths and she may not get away with that here.

He finished a close third at Newbury on his penultimate start and traded short in-running at Southwell last time, but increasingly he looks one to oppose.

The six-year-old seemed to throw in the towel last time and, even if you give him the benefit of thendoubt that score, there’s his scruffy jumping to consider. His career Jump Index score is a lowly 5.4, and he’s surrendered about 27 lengths getting from A to B in his past three starts.

The surprise Midlands Grand National winner is among the market leaders for the Scottish Grand National. 

There’s no doubting his stamina but his suspect jumping seems likely to come under more scrutiny here and, 7lb higher in the ratings, he looks one to take on.

His overall Jump Index Score is only 5.8, and he managed only marginally better (6.1) last time. However, the overall standard of jumping in the race was poor, at least among those who got the trip, and so he got away with it.

No other runner in the field has a Jump Index below 6.1, with 11 boasting a rating of 7 or higher. Isaac Des Obeaux seems likely to forfeit ground, and the first three fences arrive in the first 40 seconds or so.

This six-year-old chestnut was heavily backed and delivered in style on his hurdling bow here in February, having previously won a bumper at Listowel in similar fashion. He has since joined Gordon Elliott from Noel Kelly, with an entry in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hudle being resisted in the interim.

Others in this race have achieved more than him, but he’s an exciting prospect. His jumping was good first time out, earning a score of 7.5 and gaining him 9.51 lengths, and he powered clear in the final couple of furlongs, being 2.68sec quicker than the runner-up.

Ballinearla Girl is likely to be popular here after a staying-on third in a 16-runner handicap hurdle at Clonmel, when equipped with first-time cheekpieces and jumping much more efficiently than she has done in other starts.

The headgear stays on, but it could be risky relying on her being as tidy over her obstacles as she usually gives away plenty of lengths.

That race at Clonmel was steadily run and perhaps that was a factor in her getting a score of 7.7 and gaining four lengths. She’s run at Bellewston once before, when getting a score of 4.7 and losing 13 lengths.