The Verdict Extra: Auguste Rodin plus Curragh eye-catchers

The Verdict Extra: Auguste Rodin plus Curragh eye-catchers

By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
The Verdict this week focused on some interesting performances at Newmarket and the Curragh where my analysis of the Dubai Duty Free Irish derby did not meet with universal agreement.
I stand by my assertion that Auguste Rodin idled in front, and was a good deal better than the bare result. Some beleive team tactics were involved, but I do not think the runner-up, Adelaide River, would beat the English-Irish Derby winner however he was ridden. Lets not forget he was the one that got an easy lead in front, too.
I have a three more performances to highlight for you in this weeks column, with each one catching the eye last time out, based upon the Course Track sectional.

Aurora Dawn

newbury

19:50 Newbury - Tuesday June 27
Ed Walker has his team in fine form, and this three-year-old filly is one of 11 winners from 34 runners for the trainer, who is operating at a 32 per cent strike-rate, in the past fortnight.
She surged from last to first in this race to score impressively, and displayed plenty of speed which suggests that it was a shrewd decision to drop her back from a mile to seven furlongs.
The Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) for the winner was 107.99% which shows that the race was not run at a furious gallop, and that the winner displayed a sharp turn of foot to score having been in last place at halfway.
All of her rivals finished the race quite strongly as they all recorded figures above 100%, yet Aurora Dawn was good enough to pass them all, even though they were not stopping in front of her.
The Course Track data highlights what she actually achieved. Her final three furlongs of 33.71s was much better than the runner-up, Ajjaj, who recorded 34.84s. On good to firm ground, that equates to seven lengths - a startling stat that shows just how dominant she was in this contest.
She quickened smartly and was the only contender in F5 to dip under 11.00s, recording 10.97s. She backed that furlong up with an 11.22s furlong and then a very impressive final furlong of 11.52s.
That final furlong saw her hit the line strongly, with her three closest pursuers failing to break 12.00s.
She has no entries yet, but is one to support next time out.

Aldaary

Aldaary finished fourth in the Criterion stakes at Newmarket on Saturday when returning from a fractured canon bone, and a 14-month absence, and shaped with plenty of promise on ground that would have been too fast for him.
The six-runner field split into two groups, with Aldaary racing with the winner, Audience, in the far side group. Aldaary was held up and shaped as if he needed the run, but not before telling us that he is worth following.
He made a move to chase the winner through F5 and F6 before weakening in the final furlong. He was fastest in the race through those two individual furlongs, though, and below is a comparison of his splits with the winner:
Audience: F5 - 10.66s.
Aldaary: F5 - 10.48s.
Audience: F6 - 11.50s.
Aldaary: F6 - 11.44s.
Such a burst of speed could have taken him to victory, but he weakened on the back of those two furlongs, with a slow final furlong suggesting he needed the run.
Audience: F7 - 12.41s.
Aldaary: F7 - 12.81s.
All of Aldaary’s wins have come on ground with soft or heavy in the going description, and therefore he may be best suited to Autumn ground. It is also worth noting that he has won three times at Ascot.
Watch out for him when the ground eases. A race at Ascot with ease in the going would make him very interesting, and the Course Track data suggests that his engine is still very much intact.

Unbreak My Heart

I analysed Star Of Mystery's taking victory in The Verdict, but I think it is worth expanding the achievement of Unbreak My Heart who chased her home in third.
This was a step up in grade and trip for Unbreak My Heart who lost her maiden tag at Bath on her penultimate start. She had no chance with he winner, but the Course Track sectionals indicate that a drop back to five furlongs will suit her.
She was held up in a race that was run at a fair gallop, with a FSP of 103.17%, and Unbreak My Heart made an eye-catching move to chase the winner, but appeared not to stay this trip.
She picked up in F3 where she clocked the fastest furlong (10.58s) and she was then the fastest in the race through F4, with a split of 10.74s.
That surge put her into contention, but she could not sustain that speed, and with the winner fired a very impressive 11.02s through F5.
Unbreak My Heart then weakened in the final furlong, posting a sectional of 13.30s compared to 12.38s for the winner.
She looks to be an outright 5F performer, and her dam was a five-furlong winner, as were plenty in her family. A return to the minimum trip will surely be on the cards now.
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