The Qatar Goodwood Festival provided some excellent analytical points when it came to the latest episode of The Verdict this week.
Testing conditions provided some extremes in terms of pace with the majority of races being quite steadily run. The Qatar Nassau Stakes was run at a crawl as was the Gordon Stakes, but they both still made for fascinating analysis.
The Verdict Extra this week looks at a couple of performances of note away from Goodwood and looks at what the Course Track sectionals tell us about the all-the-way success of Quickthorn in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup.
King's Gamble impresses
King's Gamble made his debut for the in-form Ralph Beckett at Newmarket last Friday and ran out an impressive winner. He recorded a cosy length-and-a-half success and is sure to go onto better things.
The race was run at just a fair gallop with the winner recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.03% indicating that the winner ran the final three furlongs 5.03% quicker than he ran the first three furlongs. This tells us he was able to conserve energy in the first half of the race before finishing strongly.
Just how strongly he finished is indicated by his final three furlongs, through which he was faster than his nearest pursuer. He clocked 34.49sec compared to the runner-up who stopped the clock at 34.79sec.
newmarket
17:45 Newmarket - Friday August 4
This discrepancy tells us that Kings Gamble was two lengths quicker through that final three furlongs. Perhaps that does not adequately describe his domination but through each of those furlongs he was the fastest in the race -
His fourth and fifth furlong illustrate he has a smart turn of foot. He was able to back up an 11.06sec fourth furlong with a 10.96sec fifth furlong, which on debut, amid inexperience, is impressive.
Click here for the full sectionals.
In analysing Course Track sectionals I do from time to time come across horses who achieve sub 11sec furlongs on debut and I put them into a file. Kings Gamble joins a rare few who have managed the feat first time. It’s a sure sign of raw ability.
By Kingman out of a Bernadini mare, he should stay at least another furlong and will probably always be suited by decent ground. He has not got any near to hand entries.
Make capital from Paris
I Love Paris is a must for your Racing TV Tracker after her third at Newmarket on Saturday. The ground had changed from Good on the Friday to Soft and she was making her debut.
She was beaten half a length and a short head and I’m sure that defeat was because of her inexperience and being held-up in a slowly run race.
The FSP for the winner was recorded by Course Track as being 107.23%, suggesting that the first four furlongs of the race were steadily run. As such, I Love Paris was inconvenienced by a slow start and by being held-up.
newmarket
15:50 Newmarket - Saturday August 5
The final three-furlong information is revealing. I love Paris being was cumulatively the fastest in the race; clocking 36.32sec.
Hard To Resist, the winner, clocked 36.46sec with
Bourgeoisie, the runner-up, managing 36.52sec.
Click here for the full sectionals.
She was fastest through furlong five (11.69sec) when she began her run from the back and then she ran green in furlong six (11.78sec - third fastest in race) before really getting the hang of things and proving to be the fastest in the final furlong with a 12.86sec furlong.
Essentially, she was the best horse in the race and was unlucky not to win. She looks as if she will stay a mile and looks to be a sure fire winner next time.
Marquand steals the Cup
What happened in the Goodwood Cup? On the face of it, Tom Marquand stole the race from the front on a strong stayer who is dangerous when he gets an easy lead.
The first 11 furlongs of the race were steadily run. Quickthorn averaged furlongs of 13.47sec through the first half-mile, fractions that all of his rivals should have been able to track closely. But they let him go, even though he was not going very fast. The pace continued to be steady for the next three furlongs.
It was when Marquand turned the screw five furlongs from home that he sealed matters. Off an easy lead, he picked the pace up a long way from home at a time when the other jockeys did not expect him to kick.
It was the timing of the pace injection that caught he others napping. This is highlighted by the Course Track sectionals. furlong 10: 14.38s. furlong 11 14.11sec. Then the pace injection - furlong 12: 12.65sec. furlong 13: 12.09sec.
Quickthorn’s rivals went in pursuit but the lead they had given him was unassailable given the petrol saving early fractions. Quickthorn was on fumes in three final three furlongs, where he recorded a split of 39.39sec, compared to Emily Dickinson, in second, who came home in 36.98sec.
That’s equivalent to Emily Dickinson being 12 lengths quicker than Quickthorn through the final three furlongs.
It is remarkable to think that she didn’t win. That she didn’t is down to Marquand, who committed grand theft equine style. In my opinion, criticism of the vanquished is justified, particularly through the first 11 furlongs.
Make sure you tune into The Verdict on Monday where six more races will be put under the microscope.