Keeneland Phoenix Stakes: predicted finishing order

Here’s your starter for ten: which Group One race has Aidan O’Brien won the most times?

If you said 2000 Guineas (ten times) or Derby (11), then you are wrong. Ditto if you went for the Irish 2000 Guineas or Irish Champion Stakes (both 12).

Give yourself half a mark if you said Irish Derby (17) or Keeneland Phoenix Park Stakes (also 17). And you can have a full point if you knew it was a tie between the pair.

Of course, that may have all changed by late Saturday afternoon as O’Brien is a short price to land an 18th Phoenix Stakes with either Gstaad or True Love, with Puerto Rico giving him a bit of extra insurance.

If he does take the spoils, then he will have 14 Group One triumphs to his name this year, and be halfway to the record 28 he achieved in 2017.

He will be ahead of schedule, too, as eight years ago he only had 14 by the first week in September. The Ebor Meeting, Deauville and beyond will essentially be free hits.

Here's a guide to the Phoenix Stakes, with some RaceiQ data thrown into the mix. The runners in listed in preferred order. 

Official Rating: 114. RaceiQ Top Speed: 40.52mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.56sec. Odds: 11-10. 

There was plenty to like about the way Gstaad pegged back True Love on his debut at Navan, when he was initially a bit disorganised when asked to challenge, and then came his dominant display in the Coventry at Royal Ascot when he won at the main expense of Do Or Do Not, who has since been placed in two more pattern contests, and Coppull, an impressive winner of the Richmond Stakes last week.

Fifteenth at halfway, his penultimate 15.65sec furlong (only horse to dip under 12 seconds) helped him put a stamp on the race.

He sets a high standard and, being a big, scopey individual, we may only be scratching the surface. It’s no surprise that Ryan Moore is staying loyal to him, for all that True Love has clearly not stood still in the interim. 

Aidan O'Brien sounded a note of caution about him on Friday, saying he had been a "litle bit quiet". he's drifted from odds-on to odds against as a consequence.

Official Rating: 115. RaceiQ Top Speed: 42.16mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.12sec. Odds: 11-4. 

This powerfully-built daughter of No Nay Never has improved with each of her four races and the handicapper reckons she has achieved the most in this line-up. Having made a promising debut behind Lady Iman on her debut at The Curragh in May, when pitched straight into Listed company, she went off at 2-5 at Navan 12 days later, only for Gstaad to upstage her.

Those reverses have clearly caused no lasting damage, as she lost her maiden tag with victory in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, before waltzing home in the Railway Stakes over course and distance last time.

The opposition rather played into her hands that day, with the pace to halfway being steady.Wayne Lordan has already won a Derby and Goodwood Cup on stable “second strings” and must be fancying his chances of anotherlucrative pay day. 

Official Rating: 103. RaceiQ Top Speed: 41.63mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.61sec. Odds: 20-1. 

Is the weak link among the O’Brien-trained trio and it could be that he’s in here as a pacemaker, for all that he has finished runner-up in Group two company on his past two starts, including when chasing home Coppull in the Richmond Stakes last week.

Before that, he had set a steady pace in the Railway Stakes and was swamped for speed by True Love when it mattered most. The Wootton Bassett colt has still yet to lose his maiden status, hinting more than once that he wants further than 6f to be seen to best advantage, not surprising given the stamina on the dam’s side of his breeding. 

Official Rating: 102. RaceiQ Top Speed: 42.09mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.33sec. Odds: 10-1. 

Won over course and distance in taking style on her debut, in April, and got back to winning ways in the Prix Roberty Papin at Chantilly last time, albeit she had little to spare over a couple of rivals who had been put in their place behind Gstaad in the Coventry.

In between those victories, Green Sense was brushed aside by Lady Iman at Naas before failing to figure in the Albany Stakes. She’s going to need to raise her game to bustle up the principals. 

Official Rating: 102. RaceiQ Top Speed: 42.02mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.64sec. Odds: 18-1. 

Bucanero Fuerte struck for Amo Racing in this race two years ago, and Arizona Blaze made the frame for them 12 months ago. Their No 1 hope this time, Power Blue, won the same maiden that pair did, at The Curragh in mid-March, 

but it will be a surprise if he hits the jackpot. Since that debut success, he’s been placed in races won by Lady Iman and Albert Einstein before having his limitations fully exposed in the Coventry (behind Gstaad) and Railway Stakes (won by True Love). That latest defeat, when beaten the best part of six lengths, suggests he has hit a plateau.  

Official Rating: 82. RaceiQ Top Speed: 40.99mph. Fastest 0-20mph: 2.64sec. Odds: 50-1. 

Gives Amo a second string to their bow, but the Ayr winner looked some way off this level when trailing home a well-beaten fourth in Listed company at Newbury last month.