The Data Detective: Grand National Day hints and tips

Click herefor our runner-by-runner guide to the Randox Grand National for data clues galore.

Kala Conti laboured on a testing surface in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown last time but do not discount her bouncing back on this better going after a break.

She had previously impressed in her first two starts over fences, dishing out a 16-length drubbing to Kargese, the subsequent Arkle heroine, on the latter occasion at Cork. She got Jump Index scores of 7.9 and 8.2 for those efforts, gaining an aggregate of 26 lengths.

\You cannot take that form with Kargese literally, although she did have a couple of good scraps with that mare over hurdles and this looks her trip. Salvator Mundi is a hot favourite but he’s going to have competition for the lead and has yet to reach the level of form he showed over hurdles, which included a Grade One win here last year.

✅  1.20 Aintree: Lihyan

The data tells us that the strong-travelling Lihyan is the best jumper in this big field and he should get the end-to-end gallop that suits his hold-up style.

He has a Jump Index rating of 8.2, which is between 0.4 and 1.7 better than the opposition, and was typically fluent when he gained a much-deserved success at Newbury last time, getting the kind of gallop that best suits him.

Strong finishes are a feature of plenty of his runs and he pulled out a final furlong of 14.24sec that day and was quickest in half of the last 12 furlongs.

This is a tougher assignment but he’s only 2lb higher and ran well at Aintree in October, when not for the first time undone by a steady pace.

❌  1.30 Newcastle: Hawkseye View 

Hawkseye View is only 2lb higher than when scoring here last March and likely to be prominent in the betting, but he’s only got a Jump Index score of 5.6 and is a risky proposition.

He followed up that win with a tumble here next time and was clumsy at Carlisle last time, when a bungles at the first two fences (lost 9.74mph and then 7mph) set the pattern.

✅ 1.55 Aintree: Masked Man & Scorpio Rising

This is competitive but Masked Man is too bigger price to ignore at 25-1and Scorpio Rising too progressive not to have a saver on.

Masked Man slips in under the radar, having been off four months since making the most of an easy opportunity at Lingfield, but he made quite an impression when hammering Blue Carpet by 12 lengths on a sound surface his hurdling bow at Chepstow in October.

That was an admittedly steadily run race on a sound surface, but he hit almost 38mph in the penultimate furlong and attacked the final three flights at 34.86mph or quicker, gaining six lengths over them. He’s probably priced up on his official rating of 133 but that surely underestimates him, not least with Blue Carpet now up to 132.

Scorpio Rising steps up in class but he’s on a roll and again did most of his work on the bridle when winning a valuable prize at Sandown last time. His jumping is most accomplished, as he’s yet to get a score of under 8.1. ✅  2.07 Newcastle: Lone Star

This mare needs decent ground and makes each-way appeal after her third here last month after seven months off, having previously gone close at Uttoxeter.

Her Jump Index of 6.3 is third worst of the 13 runners but she seems to raise her game at Newcastle, with her narrow defeat here last time being her first defeat in three visits.

She was sticky over the first two flights – scores of 5.1 and 5.6 – but much better from then on, gaining ground over the final eight flights. Lone Star should go well if able to build on that.

✅  2.50 Chepstow: Gris Majeur

Gris Majeur has had three previous runs at Chepstow and finished sixth every time, but it will be disappointing if he’s not on the premises this time.

He’s not run a bad race in the past year and habitually steals loads of ground with his jumping. In his past four starts he has jumped best of the whole field at 31 of the 70 fences he has tackled and gained more than 57 lengths.

The grey has done most of his racing over shorter but he’s shown he stays this far and the good news about the longer trip is that he’s got more fences to negotiate.