The Data Detective: eight tips for the St Leger meeting

Night In Vegas boasts the best form in this valuable Sales race but, by dint of the race conditions, also has one of the lowest weights to carry.

He got a Time Index of 7.1 when the meeting average was 5.5 when beating Zigazig Ah in a similar race at Newmarket last time, with his final furlong of 12.02sec being classed as “very fast”.

None of his rivals could get near the 23.21sec he took to complete the final two furlongs, with only two of them dipping under 24sec. 

The runner-up had previously landed the Super Sprint (Time Index of 8 when the meeting average was 5.9) but it's hard to see how him turning the tables on 5lb worse terms, even if their respective draws suggests he has a 0.57 length advantage.

Knights Charge signed off with two very fast furlongs when winning at Nottingham last time, having shown similar late dash when previously beating the now 89-rated Cyrano De Bergerac by five lengths on level weight at Lingfield.

His opening handicap mark of 91 may underestimate him and he has a plum draw in stall 1. RaceiQ's Pace and Draw map, based on 14 years of evidence, points to that giving him a 0.85 length head start.

Another Eclipse and Davydenko have both won from gate 1 since 2018, while five winners since 2017 have been drawn 4 or lower.

In addition, trainer Roger Varian’s Actual versus Expected (A/E) at Doncaster is a glowing 1.58 (meaning his runners at the track have exceeded market expectations by 58% over the past year) and you would be in profit had you blindly backed all his 400 runners at the track since he started training.

Musical Times was nursed home when beating the useful Scommessa Sicura on her debut at Newmarket in June before easily following up at Yarmouth a couple of weeks later.

She clocked a very fast final furlong of 12.12sec at Newmarket despite her jockey being at pains to give her a considerate introduction.

Perhaps that was a factor in her zooming through the last two furlongs at Yarmouth in 22.01sec, when crossing the line hard held. That was a slow-run race but the speed she exhibited was still taking.

Of 1,025 hores in the RaceiQ to have run over 7f at the track, that is the second fastest final quarter of a mile.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Nightwalker, who went on to finish third to Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes on his next start, heads the list, being 0.10sec quicker two years ago. However, he was a colt and was carrying 2lb less.

William Buick rode Musical Times at Yarmouth and is back aboard. His A/E at Doncaster is an excellent 1.88.

Nabati is Godolphin’s perceived No 1 here after his narrow win at Newmarket last time and previous neck second to Arapaho Gold at Newbury. However, he is unraced beyond 6f and hasn't been crying out for this extra furlong.

Preference is for Godolphin's other runner, the long striding Rock Montreal, who impressed when justifying cramped odds on his debut at Yarmouth last month.

The Blue Point colt, a million guinea purchase from Book 1, probably did not beat much, but he won as he liked and was No 1 on most of the metrics. 

One standout was his low stride cadence and lengthy stride (peaked at 8.25 metres), which points to him staying at least a mile in time.

I touched on Roger Varian’s fine record at the track earlier, while Ray Dawson’s A/E at Town Moor is is 1.45.

Flann Sunna fluffed his lines when fifth in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time after being backed off the boards and going off Evens, but he deserves another chance dropping to five furlongs.

The RaceiQ data tells us he’s an exceptionally quick young colt.

When previously winning a steadily run race over six furlongs at Ascot he flew through the final two furlongs in 22.34 seconds – the quickest of 997 horses in our database. 

And it could have been quicker, too, as jockey Jack Mitchell rode him hands and heels and eased down near the finish after briefly getting in a tangle with his reins as his mount edged a little left.

The combination zipped through the fifth furlong in a rapid 10.88sec (best of the 997) and polished off the uphill sixth in 11.46sec (third fastest of the 997).

Flann Sun’s Finishing Speed Percentage was 109.12%, indicative of the slow gallop, but still most noteworthy. The distant runner-up had been an unlucky loser on his previous start at Newmarket.

And this was not a flash in the pan.

Flann Sunna had made his debut at Windsor on June 22 and produced something similar in another contest run at slow fractions.

The RaceiQ database had 1,888 horses to have run over 6f at Windsor at the time and Flann Sunna’s final two furlongs of 22.49sec ranked as the 20th quickest. As at Ascot, there looked plenty left in his tank after he had hit 41.54mph.

His draw in stall 2 on Friday is not ideal - RaceiQ says that instantly represents a 0.28 length disadvantage - but Ubetterbelievit won from there six years ago.

The obvious threat is Pershaada, who seeks to become the seventh horse to win the Molecomb and Flying Childers in the same season. He was slick at Goodwood and can be excused subsequently failing to make an impact in the Nunthorpe.

Berlerbeyi makes each-way appeal in the Doncaster Cup.

Last year’s Cesarewitch hero is up against it on bare ratings but several in this field have questions to answer whereas he seems sure to give his running.

We know exactly where we are with him. He's clocked the top speed 11 of his races, and had the best Finishing Speed Percentage on 13 occasions, admittedly being helped by the fact that he is habitually held up.

He looked in good heart when a keeping-on fifth in the Ebor last time when the only horse to clock a fast sectional in the final furlong. In fact, that was the only splash of red in the final half mile.

Caballo De Mar needs a revival after a couple of tough scraps and is being tried in blinkers, while Queenstown had been off ten month with injury before his comeback win at The Curragh and looks a candidate for the "bounce". 

We have admittedly not got a lot of evidence to judge by Desert Castle by, but the numbers support the visual impression that he made when winning on his debut over 7f at Newmarket.

They initially went quick through the first furlong that day but then handbrakes were applied and most of the field logged "very slow" sectionals for the next three furlongs.

Desert Castle was fourth at this stage before Billy Loughnane, aboard the 1-2 favourite, took a peak under the bonnet.

The well-related Frankel colt, out of a Dubawi mare, responded with a "fast" fifth furlong of 10.98sec that swept him into the lead and then he flashed all his potential with a "very fast" penultimate furlong of 10.88sec. He would have been "very fast" in the last furlong, too, but for Loughnane easing down in the closing stages.

Desert Castle's winning distance of 3½ lengths might easily have been more and, while the form of that race amount to little, there's little doubt he's a most exciting prospect.

Click here for a full guide to the St Leger and why the Joseph O'Brien-trained colt is fancied to emerge triumphant.