Your ultimate guide to the St Leger and forecast 1-2-3

Thirty-four horses have pulled off the Derby and St Leger double, although if connections of The Colonel were still around, they would no doubt argue there should be 35.

The Colonel won a chaotic edition of the final Classic of the year in 1828 after there had apparently been 27 false starts. His connections also faced criticism for running Velocipede as a pacemaker, rather than allowing him to compete on his own merits. Some things never change, do they?

Controversy followed The Colonel around because many believed he had won the Derby earlier in the year, only for the judge to declare a dead heat between him and the front-running Cadland.

The rules at the time required the horses to run again, unless the respective owners agreed to divide the prize money. They didn’t, so the horses had a rematch at the end of the afternoon. Cadland again made the running and fended off The Colonel in another rousing finish. You could argue he’s the only horse to have won the Derby twice, or maybe not.

Nineteen horses completed the Derby/Leger double between 1800 and 1900 (including seven Triple Crown heroes) but the changing face of the sport means only three have completed the double in the past 70 years: St Paddy (1960), Nijinsky (1970) and Reference Point (1987).

Christmas Day will attempt to become the fourth on Saturday, although his connections will not want the ground to dry out too much. The 1964 Derby winner, Santa Claus, skipped Doncaster on account of fast going, so perhaps the portents are not good.

Aidan O’Brien, the trainer of Christmas Day, has also left in Action,Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard and Amelia Earhart.

The master of Ballydoyle has landed the past three editions, a hat-trick feat only John Mangle (1786-88), John Lonsdale (1817-20) and John Scott (1827-29 plus 1838-1841) had previously achieved. Lonsdale and Scott stand alone as the only trainers to scoop four successive renewals, so O’Brien is on the brink of joining them.

Overall, O’Brien has landed the oldest Classic on nine occasions, although he has not had things all his way, saddling a total of 68 runners in it since 2000. Camelot and Idaho have been odds-on runners for the stable to be defeated (the latter unseated his rider), while on three occasions he has been left empty handed despite having four runners or more.

With the Irish Champions Festival taking place at Leopardstown, it will be well worth monitoring jockey bookings.

Here’s a guide to the dozen left in the race, with help from RaceiQ, including most recent Finishing Speed Percentage form, typical stride length, highest speed each has clocked and trainer’s Actual versus Expected at Doncaster (anything over 1 is a positive). 

FSP form: 30788. Stride length: low. Highest Speed: 40.57mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.10. Odds: 150-1. 

Action’s star has slipped since he emerged as one of last season’s top two-year-olds. His staying-on third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge and second in the Futurity Stakes augured well, but he’s ended up being deployed as an erratic pacemaker by connections in his most recent starts.

The chestnut is a half-brother to Lambourn but, unlike him, strides more like a ten-furlong horse (lots of strides per second).

He’s got plenty of options over the coming days but Ballydoyle/Coolmore continuing to deploy him to make the pace may need a review after he was again slow away in the Juddmonte International last time. His 0-20mph speeds are a complete mixed bag.

His breeding points to him having prospects of staying 1m 6f, but his running style/cadence does not.

FSP form: 56245. Stride length: below average. Highest Speed: 39.50mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.66. Odds: 40-1.

Horses beaten in the Derby to have gone on to St Leger glory this century have been Brian Boru (16), Sixties Icon (seventh), Lucarno (fourth), Masked Marvel (eighth), Kingston Hill (second), Capri (sixth), Kew Gardens (ninth) and Hurricane Lane (third).

That will be a source of encouragement to the connections of Alderman, who plugged on to be fifth at Epsom.

Dropped out and seemingly ridden to pick up a few pieces, the 42,000gns buy excelled himself, earning his connections £80,000. He was quickest through furlong seven (13sec) and only the winner was swifter through the final furlong, which Alderman completed in 13.52sec. He would have been fourth in a few more strides.

The St Leger looked an obvious target after that effort, but was it a flash in the pan?

He had previously been beaten an aggregate of 14 lengths in three maidens and he subsequently trailed home last of five in the Bahrain Trophy, albeit the faster terrain was probably not his cup of tea.

Julie Wood’s colt could probably do with a soggy week in Doncaster, but doesn’t look like getting it. 

FSP form: 15134. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 40.17mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.10. Odds: 7-4. 

Christmas Day seeks to become the first Derby winner since Reference Point, in 1987, to also win the St Leger. 

Not many have tried to complete the double in the interim, although Camelot, chasing the Triple Crown, was a notable exception when runner-up in 2012, while Lambourn was fourth 12 months ago.

Christmas Day looked all over St Leger material at Epsom when winning an attritional renewal in the slowest time since Teenoso in 1983.

Never worse than fourth, or 0.24 seconds off the lead, he gave an early indicator that he was in gift-giving mood when fastest through the fifth furlong (14.12sec).

But it was in the closing stages that all his stamina bubbled to the surface: he was fastest in the tenth furlong (12.32sec), joint fastest in the penultimate furlong (12.52sec) and fastest in the final furlong (a sluggish 13.42sec with most other runners having thrown in the towel).

He gave it another good go when runner-up in the Irish Derby on his next start, on faster terrain when he recorded the fastest top speed of the whole field (a personal best 40.17mph), and he was probably short of his peak, after a break, when third in the Great Voltigeur under his Group One penalty last time.

Five horses have been beaten in that York contest before going on to Leger glory this century, including the O’Brien-trained Kew Gardens in 2018.

Christmas Day did rally in the closing stages at York and the long straight at Doncaster should play to his strengths, especially if there is some give underfoot. With an official rating of 118, he is the highest rated runner in the line-up. Only three winners, all rated 120, have had higher marks in the past 20 years. 

FSP form: 36261. Stride length: biggest of the field. Highest Speed: 41.02mph. Trainer A/E at track: 0.00 (1 runner). Odds: 11-4. 

Joseph O’Brien is enjoying a memorable season and the long-striding Enceladus will attempt to give him a second St Leger triumph after Galileo Chrome in 2020, with Billy Loughnane snapped up to ride.

The imposing Sea The Stars colt is unbeaten in three starts this term, taking his form to another level when a decisive winner of the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. His two “fast” final furlongs of 11.40sec and 12.08sec enabled him to seal the deal, even if the big boy then didn’t fancy returning to the winner’s enclosure.

Four horses this century have won that race on their way to Leger glory; the latest being Jan Brueghel in 2024.

The runner-up, Geryon, who was conceding 3lb, looks a decent yardstick, for all that he disappointed next time.

Enceladus had previously scooped the King George V Stakes in tenacious style at Royal Ascot. He won that off a mark of just 89, but he clocked a taking time after going hard early and sustaining the gallop.

That form has been franked several times and he would not be the first to take the final Classic of the season after running in a handicap earlier in the campaign.

Enceladus’s low stride cadency and ability to devour ground points to the trip being within range. He stretched out to 8.48 metres at Ascot and touched 8.25 metres at Goodwood.

His half-brother, Moab, gave a timely reminder of the family’s staying power when scoring over 2m 3f at Fontwell on Sunday.

Enceladus also has the size and shape for Jumps, but it will be a big surprise if we ever see him that sphere. Cup races surely beckon for him in 2027 regardless of what happens his weekend.

FSP form: 41425. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 41.56mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.00 Odds: 40-1.

Bombed out badly in the Great Voltigeur last time when he was coltish beforehand and possibly not at home on the easy ground.

He had previously split Point Of Law and Del Maro in the Bahrain Trophy, having been sixth in a Queen’s Vase that did not get to the bottom of him.

The St Leger trip clearly suits him but he’s going to need a personal best on the back of a personal worst. He routinely wears a hood to post and it would be no surprise if he has a gelding operation before next year.

FSP form: 2314. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 42.17mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.25. Odds: 66-1. 

Golden Story is the least experienced member of the field, having had only four runs, but that half of the past six winners have had no more than four runs beforehand.

He will be making a belated return to the scene of his debut win over a mile on soft ground at the backend of last season, when he looked like thumping Infraad by a wide margin only to pull himself up near the line and end up having just over a length to spare.

He has continued to look a work in progress this campaign, simply being too keen to do himself justice at Chester, in May, and Royal Ascot the following month. On the latter occasion, he set overly strong fractions in the King Edward VII Stakes and was a spent force in the final three furlongs, taking 40.54sec to complete them (2sec slower than the winner, equating to about a dozen lengths).

In between, Golden Story settled better and was allowed to boss slowish sectionals before quickening up and touching off Del Maro (a fair yardstick) in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, with the odds-on Saxon Street (had previously beaten Rebel Rocker) back in third.

His prospects at the weekend will hinge on whether he drops the bridle, or again gets lit up. He has been absent nearly three months off and Leading Light (2013) was the last Leger winner to arrive here directly from Royal Ascot.

Golden Story’s stride data offers hope he will stay and his brother, Arabian Force, is a solid 109-rated performer proven at up to 1m 6f. However, he has looked a less exuberant model.

FSP form: 22411. Stride length: below average. Highest Speed: 40.56mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.00. Odds: 14-1. 

Some will scoff at the notion of Hatteen landing the final Classic of the season after being beaten off a mark of 88 at Goodwood last time.

However, he and his conqueror, Infraad, conceding 2lb, did pull clear in a stirring battle and the winner has since gained a commanding victory in the Melrose at York, with his rating jumping to 106. 

You could also argue Hatteen was a tad unfortunate not to win as he was quicker than the winner through each of the final six furlongs plus carried right by him in the closing stages. The winning time was 1.43sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Moreover, Hatteen had impressed when a. clear-cut winner over 1m 4f at Doncaster on his penultimate start, scoring in a time 2.38sec swifter than the RaceiQ Par, and getting a Time Index of 8.3 when the meeting average was 6.1. 

So, in summary, we have got a progressive middle-distance performer on our hands who has been impressing on the clock.

And returning to the first point, it’s worth remembering Simple Verse was beaten in a handicap off 77 en route to landing the St Leger in 2015, as was Conduit (beaten off 79) in 2008. 

The trip represents an unknown for the first foal of a slow Galileo mare, but his Finishing Speed percentages lend encouragement, even if his stride pattern creates some doubt

FSP form: 07111. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 40.66mph. Trainer A/E at track: 0.00 (1 runner). Odds: 14-1. 

Highwayman was unraced at two, like several St Leger winners before him, and looked a handicap project in the first half of the season, being beaten 60 lengths in four maidens run up to a mile at odds of up to 250-1. 

Connections had the chance of exploiting an opening mark of 76 but resisted, instead upping him to 1m 3f for his fifth run in a maiden at Killarney in mid-July. He was transformed, signing off with three “fast” furlongs and winning by nine lengths. He was the only horse in the field to run quicker than Par. 

That earned him a shot at the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes over 1m 6f at Leopardstown last time and he belied odds of 22-1, again finishing his race off well to fend off Cannes (level terms) by 2¼ lengths. The runner-up had previously been beaten twice that margin behind Infraad and Hatteen at Goodwood but had been conceding 7lb to the latter. 

Highwayman is going to need another chunk of improvement, but it could be he is peaking at just the right time.

FSP form: 4144. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 39.81mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.10. Odds: 40-1. 

The 40-1 on offer makes him interesting but he’s got a variety of engagements over the coming days and so caution is advised. 

He’s clearly had an issue or two as he only made his reappearance late last month, when finishing four lengths third to Highwayman in the Vinnie Roe Stakes at Leopardstown. That was an encouraging belated comeback and he’s entitled to be much sharper, even if the bounce factor also needs consideration. 

As a two-year-old, he was a taking winner at Galway, in a good time, before finishing a close fourth behind Christmas Day and A Boy Named Susie in the Group Three Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown. He went off 11-10 favourite that day, and his chance was compromised by racing wide and maybe doing too much too soon at the head of affairs (fastest in furlongs 1, 4 and 7). 

Just eight days later, he was pitched into Group One company and was a creditable sixth to Puerto Rico in the Criterium International on soft ground. 

He looks the part and has an eye-catching pedigree, being a son of St Mark’s Basilica out of a mare who is a half-sister to September and out of Peeping Fawn. 

Piazaa San Marco must build on his comeback but that’s a distinct possibility and he shapes as if the Leger test will suit. Several of his future entries are over 2m or more, including the Melbourne Cup.

FSP form: 82622. Stride length: above average. Highest Speed: 40.46mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.10. Odds: 3-1. 

The handsome son of Camelot signed off his two-year-old season with Group One glory in the 1m 2f Criterium De Saint Cloud but has been expensive to follow this season.

Short-priced defeats in Leopardstown’s Derby trials in the spring, including behind Christmas Day, were a precursor to him finishing a well-beaten seventh in the Derby, when a heavily backed 7-2 chance. He made ground from off the pace to be sixth two out, but then his progress stalled.

His past two efforts, when third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Great Voltigeur, have hinted he could still have a big day in him, although he did not look an easy ride at York last time when off the bridle some way out.

Pierre Bonnard’s  half-sister, Crepe Suzette, was a close third in the Park Hill Stakes last year, a race run over the St Leger trip, but she has also proved tricky to win with.

FSP form: 1174. Stride length: average. Highest Speed: 40.07mph. Trainer A/E at track: 0.00 (5 runners). Odds: 100-1.

There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he flew the flag with distinction for the minnows when sixth in the Derby, carrying the colours of his Devon-based breeder-owner Jennifer Dorey and being rookie trainer Faye Bramley’s first runner in the race.

Having raced in the top five for the first mile, it looked like he might drop away (had slipped to ninth two out) before keeping on again at the finish.

Soft ground may be important to him as he could finish only fourth of five runners on fast going in the Geoffrey Freer last time, simply being unable to keep up when the runners quickened up in the closing stages.

He’s got a handicap mark of 103 and may not be easy to place away from a testing surface

FSP form: 15553. Stride length average. Highest Speed: 40.84mph. Trainer A/E at track: 1.10. Odds: 25-1. 

Oh So Sharp, User Friendly and Simple Verse have been among fillies to win the St Leger since the mid 1980s but she’s not in their league and has been something of an underachiever since landing the Cheshire Oaks on her return.

The daughter of Camelot made little impact in the English and Irish versions of the Oaks on her next two starts and here latest defeat, in Group Three company, rather sum her up.

Hoods, blinkers and cheekpieces have all been used in a bid to get the maximum out of her, and there’s nothing in her numbers to suggest she will spring a surprise.

She’s got a variety of engagements over the coming days, including the Park Hill Stakes against her own sex on Thursday. 

The drying ground will suit the fluent moving Enceladus, above, and this galloping track should suit him even better than Ascot and Goodwood. He can improve again, with Christmas Day the obvious threat among those certain to line up. Piazza San Marco would make interesting appeal if allowed to line up. Hatteen also merits attention. 

1 ENCELADUS 2 CHRISTMAS DAY 3 PIAZZA SAN MARCO/HATTEEN