The Data Detective: vital clues and a 66-1 tip for Champions Day

Let’s go all Pulp Fiction and mess with the natural order of things by starting at the finish. 

Future Group One winners have often run in the Balmoral, with Lord North, Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters all springing to mind. If there is a top-level performer this time, then it is almost certainly Gavriel, trained by John and Thady Gosden. 

He ran a cracker when a close fourth in the Cambridgeshire last month, finishing first among his group on the stands’ side. Before that, the lightly raced three-year-old had won over 1m 2f at Ascot. 

Gavriel now drops to a mile but his stride data points to that being a huge positive, rather than a negative. When he won at Ascot, for example, he averaged 2.34 strides per second and his maximum frequency was 2.60 strides per second. 

This is far from typical behaviour of a ten-furlong performer but in a dawdle of a race (it was run almost 5sec slower than the RaceiQ Par) it was helpful to be able to be able to spin his wheels like a sprinter when the tempo finally lifted. 

In the Cambridgeshire, he was only 23rd quickest to 20mph, maybe a little by design, and averaged 2.40 strides per second, which was again highest by some margin. 

By way of comparison, 16 of his 26 rivals averaged between 2.15 and 2.29, which you would expect. 

It could just be that the Frankel colt’s latent ability has, to an extent, been enabling him to run with distinction beyond a mile. And that now we get to see him over his optimum trip, or is that even 7f? 

His draw in stall 18 is an imponderable, although Crown Of Oaks made all from gate 23 last year, while the year before the horses drawn in 22 and 18 finished second and third. And in 2020, Sweet Believer was runner-up from stall 20. 

The market has caught up with Gavriel, as he is 5-1 having been 10-1 at the start of the week, but he’s the least exposed runner and has sneaked in towards the foot of the weights. 

I’ll also be having an each-way saver on course specialist Hickory, not seen to anything like best advantage over 7f here a fortnight ago when his usual rider, Saffie Osborne, was in action elsewhere. She’s back on board this time. 

The stride data has hinted more than once that Gstaad could be even more effective beyond a mile, but connections have had a rethink about him and Constitution River going in opposite directions. 

At least he will be over a straight mile, rather than around a bend as he was in the St James’s Palace, when almost nailing Bow Echo at the end of a controversial affair where he benefited from a ferocious gallop and a stablemate letting him up the inside early in the straight. 

Have his three tussles with Bow Echo left a mark? His latest effort, when an odds-on third in the Prix du Moulin, was dull, and no doubt prompted the idea of moving up in distance. 

Gstaad just doesn’t have that instant acceleration that make the top milers stand out. He’s a grinder, able to sustain speed but needing a relentless gallop to blunt the acceleration of others. 

Hawk Mountain, his stablemate, is almost certainly going to be asked to set those fractions, with Team Ballydoyle popping a visor on him to ensure he stays focused on the job in hand. 

But what about if his rider, Colin Keane, who has eight wins from 34 rides for O’Brien in Ireland, pushes on early before dabbing on the brakes? 

The RaceiQ Pace Map points to nothing else bothering Hawk Mountain at the head of affairs; he is unbeaten in three starts over a mile (including at the highest level); and you do not have to travel that far back to find his second in the French Derby and third in the Coral-Eclipse (both times when not far behind Constitution River). 

Since then, he has been asked to set crazy early fractions in the Juddmonte International before also helping push the pace in the Irish Champion and being among those wiped out by some errant riding in the closing stages. 

The 50-1 on offer is too big to resist, in the full knowledge that Keane may be asked to go overly hard on him. 

Maroof and Summoner won the QEII at 66-1 and 33-1, respectively, when supposed pacemakers, so there are precedents. 

Talk Of New York is more logical after he put it all together in the Joel Stakes last time, winning in a time 2.47sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. He also impressed on the clock at Sandown earlier in the year, and in defeat at Glorious Goodwood when he contributed to his downfall. 

Suggested bets: Hawk Mountain each-way at 50-1 with betfair & Paddy Power and saver on Talk Of New York to win at 3-1.

Kalpana seeks to land this for the third successive year and will clearly be hard to beat if she’s brings her A Game to a track she adores. 

That’s got to be a big “if” for the hot favourite, though after some tough races this year, most notably in the Yorkshire Oaks on her penultimate start where she scrambled home by a short head from Sparan Nua after an unconventional race where she was probably sent in pursuit of trail-blazing Sugar Island earlier than necessary. In Colin Keane’s defence, he said he had not expected his filly to pick up quite so quickly. 

Kalpana ended up having something of a grueller, reflected by her last two furlongs both being adjudged “very slow”. As she crossed the post she was travelling at 31.4mph, the slowest she has hit the line among her 16 finishes in the RaceiQ database. 

By way of comparison, she was moving at 35.01mph at the end of the King George, and at 36.64mph when winning a slowly run race on Champions Day last year. 

Kalpana has subsequently finished a creditable fifth in the Arc, although she had every chance, unlike 12 months earlier, and her effort flattened out. 

Meanwhile, the placed horses in the Yorkshire Oaks, plus also rans, have done little to challenge the notion it was a tough examination for one and all. 

Those in Kalpana’s corner will argue she won this contest in decisive style 12 months ago, having finished down the field in the Arc beforehand. 

However, things fell in her lap last year as she raced prominently in a slow-run race and was perfectly positioned to put her stamp on proceedings. Her Time Index was 4.3 when the meeting average was 8.3, with the hold-up horses having no chance. 

This renewal seems highly unlikely to unfold the same way, with Sugar Island again likely to go off fast. In addition, Kalpana has an awkward draw in stall 1 to negotiate, not least because she routinely breaks quickly and could end up searching for some cover. 

RaceiQ reckon stall 1 is a 1.12-length disadvantage, with better drawn rivals having a 1.62 length headstart before the gates have even opened. 

Exploring this further, RaceiQ have 53 similar mile and a half races at Ascot in their database. 

Stall one has won once, as has stall two. Between them, stalls 1-4 have managed nine wins, having an Actual versus Expected (A/E) of 0.57 (meaning they have run below market expectations by 43 per cent). 

Those in stalls 5 to 9 have chalked up 12 wins, with an A/E of 0.67. 

And then we have stalls 10 to 13. The golden gates. They have won 32 of the 53, having an A/E of 1.67. 

Since the race was first run in 2011, stall 1 has never won or housed the runner-up, plus had only one third. By contrast, stalls 10, 11 and 12 have chalked up seven victories between them, plus had seven places. 

Lilt (stall 10), Tajlina (11), Minie Hauk (12) and Coedana (13) should have no excuses.

Minnie Hauk has the best overall form of this quartet, but she has finished behind Kalpana on her past three starts and is simply not the filly she was last year. 

You can certainly make a case for Lilt, who was sixth in the French Oaks before being off for three months and then chasing home Thundering On in the Blandford Stakes at The Curragh. 

Her cadence and pedigree point to her improving again stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time. 

Suggested bet: Back Lilt to win at 15-2 with William Hill.

Almeraq is the hottest favourite on the card but the Even money chance seems to be priced up on his runaway win in the Sprint Cup on soft/heavy ground at Haydock last time, rather than his previous performances on faster terrain in the Jubilee Stakes (all out to prevail in a blanket finish) and July Cup (disappointed and connections blamed the quick going).

The data confirms he is more effective when the mud is flying. For example, his Top Speed rank on soft ground has been 112. But his Top Speed rank on going with the word “good” in the description has been 307100. Fourteen others had a higher top speed than him at Royal Ascot, when he snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a final furlong of 11.86sec.

He needed that final uphill climb to get his nose in front in a race where three lengths covered the first nine home. In common with all the runners that day, he did not record one sub-11-second furlong.

Next time out, in the July Cup, he chalked up three of those between furlongs two and four to try and keep up, and perhaps was taken out of his comfort zone and/or resented another outing on good to firm going.

He also lacks a bit of gate speed for a top sprinter, with his rank reading 917658088.

Mind you, he’s better in this department than his stablemates, Division and Binhareer, whose 0-20mph stats make for grim viewing. If the first couple of races confirm the ground is on the quick side, I’ll be looking to taking on Almeraq at the prices.

A 200-1 chance prevailed last year and Power Blue, a general 66-1, could be worth a second look. He has not run over 6f on a sound surface since winning last year’s Group One Phoenix Stakes, when he upstaged True Love.

The runner-up was almost certainly below -par but he has other bits and pieces of form, plus RaceiQ numbers, that make him interesting. He was belatedly dropped back to 6f at The Curragh last time but the ground was heavy and he faded after being prominent early on.

There’s not a stack of pace signed on here and I imagine David Egan will want to have him in the thick of the action from the outset. His 0-20mph figures are encouraging.

Suggested bet: back Power Blue each-way at a general 66-1

I don’t see this ending any different to last year when Calandagan beat Ombudsman and Alamqam after Devil’s Advocate had helped set the pace. There were no excuses for anyone on the day; Calandagan simply had too much pace when it mattered most. 

Maybe William Buick, on Ombudsman, will try and play things differently by either sitting closer to Calandagan or getting in front of him, but he’s always adopted a sit-and-stalk approach up to now. 

The sectionals tell us Ombudsman was 0.23sec behind Calandagan after a furlong last year and that the gap had grown to 0.3sec after half a mile (about two lengths). After a mile, he trailed by only 0.04sec and was in full flow, but Calandagan had more reserves late in the scene and ended up beating him by 0.40sec (the biggest margin between them in the race). 

Breaking down the furlongs to individual races, the score between them was 5-5. 

Alamqam was faster than the pair of them through the first six furlongs and led Calandagan by 1.1sec after six furlongs (about six lengths) but just could not handle his acceleration and ended up 0.67sec adrift. 

Bay City Roller has run five times over ten furlongs and been beaten every time, including by Alamqam, and has had only 13 days to catch his breath since the Arc. 

And Constitution River looks vulnerable after failing to get the job done in the Irish Champion after looking to have things in the bag a furlong out. He hung left and finished off in 12.57sec, only the fifth fastest of the eight runners. 

Daiquiri Bay, trained by Alan King, has something to find with several of his rivals on ratings but he is 3/3 this season and had another 56-day break since his tenacious win in the Ebor.

His stride cadence offers hope the extra couple of furlongs will not be a bother. His minimum stride frequency at York was 2.03 strides per second, which is highly encouraging, and his peak stride length of 8.16 metres topped the charts.

His win in the Copper Horse Stakes at Royal Ascot, when also game, was notable for the Time Index being 8.05 when the meeting average was 6.5. He stopped the clock 2.32sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par and, comparatively, was the best effort on the clock on day one of the meeting by some margin.

Trueshan, his former stablemate, had a rating of 109 when winning the first of his three Long Distance Cups in 2020. Stradivarius, rated 16lb superior to him, was hot favourite that year but trailed home well beaten after running at Longchamp 13 days before.

The exploits of Trueshan mean King has a 50% strike-rate with his runners on Champions Day and his Actual versus Expected at Ascot in the past year (Flat and Jumps) is a superb 3.43 (four winners from 11 runners with his horses collectively beating 65 per cent of their rivals).

Overall, he’s had 20 winners from 111 Flat runners at the course and, had you backed them all blindly to a £1 stake, you would be almost £33 in profit. 

Suggested bet: Daiquiri Bay each-way at 10-1

Arapaho Gold is a leading fancy but his supporters might not have noticed that his trainer, Michael Dods, has not had a winner for almost a month, and he’s had 64 runners during that time.

Nineteen of those have gone off at single figures, with Arapaho Gold featuring in the unwelcome sequence when third in the Mill Reef Stakes at 5-4. Dods has had only one runner at Ascot in the past year (it was beaten) and his four previous runners on Champions Day have all failed to figure.

On the plus side, Arapaho Gold won his first four races, including the Acomb, and his latest effort still puts him bang in the equation as he was not beaten far behind Nabati, who will he meet again, when carrying a penalty. Arapaho Gold hit the line that day at 35.82mph, whereas Nabati was moving slower at 35.44mph. 

Darkness Falls, Sun Goddess and Musical Times have been among a crop of exceptional two-year-olds to light up this season, but no juvenile can match Night In Vegas when it comes to prize money won in Britain.

The Eve Johnson Houghton-trained colt has scooped £596,549 and will add to that haul if he finishes in the top six.

It seems safe to assume no two-year-old has ever won as much money on these shores.

He’s unquestionably the biggest juvenile earner in the past 30 years and the plethora of richly endowed Sales’ races were not around before then.

Night In Vegas has won three of them, plus picked up dividends in his other four races. Who is to say another big pay day does not beckon? The Lucky Vega colt has achieved Time Indexes higher than the meeting average when winning each of his five races and his near miss in the Coventry can be marked up as he was only 19th fastest to 20mph. 

Connections of Satellite Of Love will fancy their chances of reveresing Doncaster form with him on 7lb better terms, but it may not be that simple.

Suggested bet: Back Night In Vegas to win at 13-2.