The Data Detective: clues and tips for York on Thursday
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Tue 12 May 2026
The Data Detective (Andy Stephens) suggests three selections on day two of the Dante meeting, which has drawn 97 runners. Enjoy all the action on Racing TV
2.20 AIR FORCE ONE
Top speed: 43.66mph when winning at York last July.
Draw advantage on Thursday: 0.78 lengths.
Trainer’s overall Actual Over Expected: 1.48 (anything over 1 is a positive).
Air Force One has shone at York in the past, including when winning at the track in July, and the data tells us he is favourably drawn in stall 6.
Moreover, he’s only 2lb higher than when producing a final furlong flourish to get up at Beverley last time. The Time Index for that race was 8.9, when the meeting average was 7.5, and it looks a strong piece of form.
3.30 SEE THE FIRE
Top speed: 42.08mph when third in the Juddmonte International last year.
Final 3f in race last year: 36.32sec (next best 38.21sec).
Final 3f at Nottingham: 35.02sec.
See The Fire was a 12-length winner of the Middleton Stakes last year and seeks a repeat. They went overly fast for the first six furlongs that day, but she was able to keep on as others ground to a halt.
She also won the Strensall Stakes in 2024, plus ran creditably in the Juddmonte International in August.
She should be spot on for her defence after a comeback win at Nottingham when she signed off with four successive “very fast” furlongs; holding on despite getting a bit weary late in the scene.
Wild Illusion is feared most but Charlie Appleby has now saddled 25 successive losers, including 13 at 3-1 or shorter.
4.05 ACTION
Final 2f of Royal Lodge: marginally quicker than Bow Echo.
0-20mph: 2.74sec to 4.39sec. Finishing Speed Percentage form: 23123.
Action’s sluggish starts are a bad habit and he looked ungainly on his return at Sandown but that is offset by the odds on offer about him bouncing back.
He’s yet to run a bad race under Wayne Lordan and on his final start last term he was runner-up in the Futurity Stakes, having previously been a close third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge, when having the best Finishing Speed Percentage.
Overall, his numbers add up to him being the wrong price at double-figure odds.
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