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The Data Detective: clues and tips for Saturday
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026
Andy Stephens crunches the RaceiQ numbers and gives his verdict on the Irish Oaks and much more.
✅ 2.10 MARKET RASEN: HIGH FIBRE
High Fibre’s Jump Index of 8.6 is the best in the field for the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen and he makes plenty of each-way appeal.
The seven-year-old has gained lengths with his leaping in each of his 15 races over Jumps, averaging about seven per race.
He also shaped well on his first start for James Owen on the Flat at York recently, when a keeping-on third.
Owen’s runners are not usually underestimated in the betting but they have exceeded market expectations at Market Rasen in the past year, with his Actual versus Expected being an eye-catching 1.84 at the track.
The trainer is seeking to land this prize for the third time in four years and clearly means business as he has snapped up Sean Bowen for the ride.
✅ 3.02 NEWBURY: SOLDIER’S TREE
Soldier’s Tree did not make his debut until late last year but is making up for lost time.
The five-year-old clocked some swift sectionals for the level of race when winning easily at Dundalk in January – his Time Index was 9.8 when the meeting average was 5.8 - and he has impressed since subsequently joining James Owen.
He had the best Finishing Speed Percentage when a close third to Almeraq (followed up in the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes) at Salisbury before a gallant third under a big weight in the Wokingham. He had Binhareer (slow starts becoming an issue) two lengths behind at the Royal Meeting and meets him on 3lb better terms.
✅ 3.05 NEWMARKET: LITTLE DORRIT
Revoir gave it another good go when touched off at Pontefract last time in first-time cheekpieces, but the likely favourite has been beaten in each of her nine races since winning on her debut and is proving to tricky to win with.
Little Dorrit finished just under four lengths behind her at Pontefract but she’s entitled to be much sharper – it was her first outing since the autumn – and is a chunky price to turn the tables.
She caught the eye in the Galtres Stakes last year, when not seen to best advantage, and her fourth off a mark of 93 in a hot handicap at Doncaster next time was also highly creditable. She finished off with four fast furlongs at Town Moor, which none of the other managed, and had the best Finishing Speed Percentage.
RaceiQ: Where racing meets the data
✅ 4.17 NEWMARKET: FENLANDER
Fenlander is a on a roll and is fancied to chalk up a fourth successive victory.
He’s gone up 15lb in the ratings during his winning spree but he’s only 2lb higher than when scoring at Nottingham last time and this is only marginally better grade of race.
The Pam Sly-trained five-year-old has generally been making the running and been impressing on the clock. His past three Time Index scores have been 9.6, 7.2 and 9.1, when the meeting averages have been 5.9, 5.0 and 7.0.
He’s been fastest to 20mph in three of his past four starts and the Actual versus Expected of front-runners over 6f on the July Course is a healthy 1.69.
✅ 4.35 CURRAGH: THUNDERING ON
Thundering On can become the fourth horse in the past decade to complete the English and Irish Oaks double after Enable, Snowfall and Minnie Hauk.
She was awesome at Epsom when her final furlong of 11.99sec swept her clear and she had an excuse when subsequently fourth to Estrange in the Pretty Polly as she was coughing afterwards.
Even then, she clocked the Top Speed in the race – 40.36mph – and was fastest over the final three furlongs.
The handicapper reckons she has got between 9lb and 17lb in hand of her rivals.
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