Alex Scott assesses the chances of the eleven runners remaining in Saturday's Classic at The Curragh. Watch all the action live on Racing TV.
1 AMELIA EARHART
Camelot – Venus De Milo (Duke Of Marmalade)
T: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 105. Best odds: 5-1.
Amelia Earhart, sporting the unusual combination of blinkers and a hood, won the Cheshire Oaks in style but things did not go to plan when she was sent off favourite at Epsom.
Talented, but quirky. The daughter of Camelot bossed the Cheshire Oaks in a race her trainer has dominated in recent years, but she came unstuck when sent off favourite for the Oaks at Epsom.
So she arrives here with something to prove, though that latest effort is still her only disappointing performance over this sort of trip from two runs and she is capable of much better than she showed last month.
A return to faster ground may see her to better effect, and it will be interesting to see if her unique headgear combination is retained. It would be dangerous to rule the daughter of Camelot out given, not just who trains her, but what a powerful galloper she looked prior to her Classic defeat in softer conditions.
2 BEAUTIFY
Wootton Bassett – Words (Dansili)
T: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 104. Best odds: 66-1.
Looks to be up against it here having finished only sixth in the Pretty Polly Stakes over two furlongs shorter at this track earlier this month and without a win since taking the Airlie Stud Stakes over a year ago.
However, she is only rated 1lb below Amelia Earhart, who is substantially shorter in the market, and she may fare better back against her own age group.
This would be her first start beyond ten furlongs, and though she is by Wootton Basstt, her dam, by Dansili, did win over a mile and a half.
3 CAMEO
Wootton Bassett – Zagitova (Galileo)
T: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 102. Best odds: 33-1.
A Cameo role in the Irish Oaks could be the best the daughter of Wootton Bassett can hope for unless she takes a big step forward. (Pic: focusonracing.com)
Another beautifully-bred daughter of Wootton Bassett, Cameo was an impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial in May but could only manage fifth at Epsom in softer conditions.
Eased in grade last time out, she set out to make all in Group Three company at Naas but was comfortably beaten as the 5-4 favourite in third.
Has something to prove now and this looks a tough ask, though a return to fast ground would look a positive.
4 COMPOSING
Wootton Bassett – Epona Plays (Australia)
T: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 101. Best odds: 50-1.
After three successive wins through the grades as a juvenile last year, Composing was sent off the even-money favourite for the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes but finished out of the places in fourth having made the running.
She is yet to win since, but she an her best race of the season when stepped up to 1m4f in first-time blinkers at Royal Ascot, finishing fifth in the Ribblesdale.
She was slightly hampered entering a crucial part of the race and she hung right-handed under pressure, and though she was well beaten by the first few home, she still comfortably got the better of Oaks runner-up Legacy Link.
That effort suggested she is capable of getting her head back in front at Stakes level, but this looks a tall order and a career best is likely required.
5 EARTH SHOT
Time Test – Precious Ramotswe (Nathaniel)
T: William Haggas. Official Rating: 109. Best odds: 3-1.
The progressive Earth Shot bids to follow up her Royal Ascot win for Somerville Lodge.
William Haggas has a good strike rate in Group One races in Ireland and won this race eight years ago with the outstanding Sea Of Class.
This year, he has a leading contender yet again courtesy of the progressive Earth Shot, who won the Ribblesdale on her first start over a mile and a half last time out.
It was clear that she was an above-average filly when she bolted up to break her maiden at the second attempt on what was her first start of the season when scoring by five lengths at Newmarket in May.
She then chased home subsequent Prix de Diane third Inis Mor in Listed company at Goodwood, before going a place better at the Royal meeting.
With just four starts under her belt, she is capable of showing further progression over this trip, and potentially further given she is out of a 1m6f Bronte Cup winner.
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6 INIS MOR
Galiway – Mellow (Deep Impact)
T: David Menuisier. Official Rating: 110. Best odds: 7-1.
Could there be more to come from Inis Mor? (Pic: focusonracing.com)
After finishing twelfth in the 1000 Guineas, Inis Mor has improved for stepping up in trip with her defeat of Earth Shot and Classic third in France suggesting she is capable of having a say in further top-level contests against her own sex this season.
She tackles another furlong and a half extra here, which should suit given her running style and pedigree (dam won over 1m7f), though after seven starts, it is possible that she is not open to as much progression as the likes of Earth Shot.
She has not always been straight forward, sometimes being on her toes in the preliminaries and showing signs of keenness. She has mixed different running style too, but a strongly run race should see her to best effect.
7 JOHANA WALSH
Sea The Stars – Miss Aiglonne (Dawn Approach)
T: Joseph O’Brien. Official Rating: 108. Best odds: 5-1.
It almost goes without saying that Joseph O’Brien remains in flying form, and the Kilkenny handler has another big chance of Group One glory courtesy of this daughter of Sea The Stars, who is improving at a rate of knots.
Third on her sole run at two, she filled the same position on reappearance, but soon put that experience to good use by making all to win by over three lengths at Leopardstown in May.
Pitched into the Ribbesdale last time on her fourth start and first outside of maiden company, she ran a huge race to finish second, just a head behind the re-opposing Earth Shot who ran her down in the final strides.
A €460,000 yearling, she is still behind her Oaks-winning stablemate on form terms, but further improvement is very likely and she rates a leading player.
8 REBEL MOON
Lope De Vega – Purely Princess (Galileo)
T: Jospeh O’Brien. Official Rating: N/A. Best odds: 12-1.
If there is one filly in the line-up that falls into the ‘could be anything’ category then it is Rebel Moon. Two from two, she followed up her impressive win from the rear on debut to land the Group Three Jannah Rose Stakes at Naas last month.
Even with Cameo back in third, that form still leaves her with plenty of improvement to find, but it is not impossible that she can take a big leap forward after just two starts.
The 500,000gns purchase has also looked strong at the end of her races, plus the best of her siblings stayed this far, and her dam won over a mile and a half, so this further step up in trip should suit.
9 SPARAN NUA
Dawn Approach – Sparanai (Leroidesanimaux)
T: Jim Bolger. Official Rating: 103. Best odds: 7-1.
Sparan Nua's trainer and breeder, and previous owner Jim Bolger told us more about the talented filly at Cork on Racing TV.
Jim Bolger’s homebred is three from three and has earned a crack at the top level after winning the Munster Oaks last month on her first start over a mile and a half.
That most recent success, where she still showed signs of inexperience, followed wide margin wins in maiden and conditions races, but it remains to be seen how she will fare over this trip in a strongly run race - her most recent races have been slowly run affairs.
She does, however, have a potent turn of foot in her locker, and she displayed a likeable attitude when finding plenty from the three pole last time.
10 SUGAR ISLAND
Dubawi – Heaven On Earth (Galileo)
T: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 104. Best odds: 25-1.
From the immediate family of Lillie Langtry - dam of Minding, the beautifully bred Sugar Island won at the Curragh at the first attempt last year, and after being beaten on her subsequent three starts, made all to comfortably beat the then once-raced Thundering On in the Group Staffordstown Stud Stakes on heavy ground in October.
She was comfortably beaten by stablemate Amelia Earhart when fourth in the Cheshire Oaks on her reappearance, but she then convincingly reversed that form by finishing third at Epsom.
For all that was a better effort, she still has almost ten lengths to find with Jospeh O’Brien’s Oaks winner and is unlikely to reverse that form here.
Cut in the ground clearly suits her much better than faster conditions too. She has been comfortably beaten on three runs on ground described as good, and is unraced on anything quicker.
11 THUNDERING ON
Frankel – Thundering Nights (Night Of Thunder)
T: Joseph O’Brien. Official Rating: 119. Best odds: 3-1.
The Verdict: Thundering On romps home in the Oaks.
An emphatic winner of the Premier Fillies’ Classic at Epsom, she was sent off the 11-10 favourite in the Pretty Polly Stakes a few weeks ago in a bid to follow in the hoofprints of her dam, who won the race five years ago, but could only finish fourth behind older mare Estrange.
She was found to be coughing after the race, though, and it was by far the fastest ground she has raced on. She did well to get within two and a half lengths of the winner given those circumstances.
Given how impressive she was at Epsom and her otherwise progressive profile, it is impossible to rule her out should she have recovered from that race for her in-form yard.
Verdict
To follow on Thursday morning after declarations.