The Data Detective: clues and tips for Jump Finale Day

La Luna Artista has the highest Jump Index in the line-up, and swiped nine lengths in the air when romping home in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton last time. She also clocked the Top Speed (34.41mph) and had the highest Finishing Speed Percnetage (104.22%). 

She had previously almost hit 37mph when running well at Cheltenham in January, with her Entry Speed and Exit Speeds at her hurdles being slickest. Moreover, the handicapper looks to have taken a lenient view of her form. 

Made U Blush has a career Jump Index of just 5.9 but the daughter of Derby winner Masar was much more proficient in that department last time, when getting a score of 8.4. She may be the biggest threat.

Narciso Has (8.2) is the only four-year-old to have run this year with a higher Jump Index than Minella Yoga (8.0) among the juvenile hurdlers.

He’s gained ground at 33 of the 35 hurdles he has navigated, pinching more than 40 lengths. His mark of 132 also looks favourable for his switch to the handicap ranks, while good ground seems to suit him. 

He was a close third to Maestro Conti (now rated 143) at Cheltenham in January, when he was a place ahead of Lord Byron (rated 141). 

Made it third time lucky over hurdles at Wincanton last time but whether his jumping will hold up in such a competitive race is questionable. His three Jump Index scores have been 4.4, 4,5 and 6.0. He lost an average of 4.6mph over his hurdles last time and will not be able to afford that here. 

Blow Your Wad is ending the season in great heart and, on official ratings, has between 5lb and 22lb in hand on the opposition. It’s a surprise he’s available at 2-1. 

He’s still not as good as jumping fences (Jump Index 7.1) as hurdles (Jump Index 7.6) and invariably gives away a bit of ground with his leaping, but he generally finishes off his races strongly, as he did when scoring at Chepstow last time, plus when previously fourth to Johnnywho in the Ultima, having been 12th half a mile out. 

The Dan Skelton-trained novice is a general 5-2 in the betting, which looks skinny. 

On official ratings, he’s only fourth best in the field and his Career Jump Index of 6.7 is lowest in the line up. He lost ground at 15 of the 19 fences when running at Aintree last time (admittedly there was some superb leaping by his rivals), surrendering 11 lengths. 

Sandown would not be Skelton’s favourite stamping ground, either. His Actual Over Expected (A/E) at the track, based on the prices of his 17 horses to run at the track in the past year, is a modest 0.49.

Jonbon has never finished out of the first two in his 28 races, but he’s had some bruising battles this season and could be vulnerable dropping back to two miles on fast ground. At a best price of 13-8, he looks one to take on. 

His Jump Index scores on his past three starts over this trip have been 6, 6.2 and 6.5, and he finished wearily when a distant runner-up in the Ryanair Chase last time. 

He’s finished 112 in the past three editions of this race and, unlike last year, doesn’t have Il Etait Temps to cope with. However, there are going to be no hiding places with Thistle Ark and Solness likely to go a good gallop at the head of affairs. 

The latter ran a remarkable race when beaten a neck by Grey Dawning in the Melling last time, setting a strong pace but battling on gamely. The Finishing Speed Percentages of the runners in that race varied between 91.97% and 96.56%, showing what a demanding gallop they went. 

Meanwhile, Thistle Ark will be fresh, having had a three-month break since Jonbon wore him down in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot.  He’s entitled to turn the tables with a furlong and a half less to cover on quicker going, even without allowing for the pause which refreshes. 

Throw in JPR One, the best jumper in the field who will have conditions to his liking, and Mirabad, who raised his game at Aintree, and it’s clear that Jonbon will have to be somewhere near his best if he is to justify cramped odds.

Seven-year-olds have won six of the past 11 renewals of the bet365 Gold Cup and their four challengers this time – Havaila, Montregard, Ask Brewster and Road To Home – are all prominent in the betting. 

Of that quartet, all bar Havaila have been rerouted here after being late absentees from the Scottish Grand National last weekend, when the ground turned testing, with preference being for Montregard. 

He’s thrived at Ascot this season, putting up a career best when scoring over 3m in a valuable contest there last time. He dipped almost 1sec under the standard time that day and his jumping was measured, earning him a Score of 8.3 and gaining him 14.59 lengths. 

Ascot takes some jumping and it’s to his credit that he has gained about 32 lengths in three visits there this term. He spent an average of 4.82sec in the Jumping Envelope last time (30 metres before and after each fence) compared to 5.07sec on his penultimate start. 

The trip is a question mark, but he’s had the highest Finishing Speed Percentage in four of his five past starts, which must be a positive. He was fastest through each of the final three furlongs in that true-run race last time. 

Montregard still has some way to go to match the exploits of his half-brother, the 164-ratred Protektorat, but a mark of 132 gives him some wriggle room. 

Anyone who had an each-way play on Kabral Du Mathan in the Stayers’ Hurdle last month is probably still having recurring nightmares. 

He looked all over the winner going to the final flight, when still on the bridle, but then he hit the wall over the longest distance he has tackled (and probably ever likely to tackle). 

Kabral Du Mathan's final three furlongs were 13.04sec (quickest); 14.64 sec (second quickest) and then 17.05 sec (only sixth quickest). That slow-motion final 220 yards meant he ended up finishing fourth. 

He also put up his worst jumping performance that day, getting only a 7 out of 10. He had never previously got lower than 7.4, with his previous two scores being 8.5 and 8.3. 

He drops back to 2m5½f on Saturday and should gain a degree of consolation, having already treated Jingko Blue as a punch bag on one occasion this campaign.

Nicky Henderson’s A/E at Sandown in the past 12 months has been only 0.49, but the progressive Calimystic can give that a small boost. 

The seven-year-old is clearly much better over fences than hurdles, which is reflected by his Jump Index scores. His rating over the larger obstacles is 7.9 (much the best in this field), whereas over hurdles it was 6.5. 

He shone over 3m here at Sandown last time, looking like he might win by a wide margin between the last two fences only to stumble a bit on landing over the last and others to close on him in the final stages. It took him 3.04sec to get back up to speed, and his final furlong of 16.74sec was only fourth fastest. 

Overall, though, he had things under control a little way from home and gained 10.4 lengths in the air. 

Calimystic is up 6lb in the ratings and down half a mile in trip. It will be a surprise if the assessor has got his measure and the shorter distance seems unlikely to be an issue, given his final furlong of 16.74sec last time was only fourth fastest. 

Palamon is almost the opposite of Calimystic. His Jump Index over hurdles is 7.5, but over fences it is a modest 6.1. He lost an average of 5.33mph over his fences at Aintree last time (only 14th best) and his average recovery time was 1.39sec (12th best). Moreover, he has a poor wins-to-runs ratio and, at 7-2, looks priced on who trains him. 

The final race of the season is perhaps not quite so competitive as the numbers imply, and it will be disappointing if Favour And Fortune does not make his presence felt. 

Good ground is no issue for him, he’s had a light campaign and his Career Jump Index of 8 out of 10 is second best in the field. 

He was placed in the 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Aintree for the second year running last month, going close despite his saddle slipping after the final flight. That was almost certainly a factor in him being only sixth fastest in the final furlong after he had been disputing the lead at the final flight.