The Data Detective: clues and tips for Aintree on Friday

Jump Index: 8.3. Top Speed: 36.11mph.

Lengths gained jumping this season: 71.62.

Gold Dancer made a gallant bid to defy top weight in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month, when he jumped with typical alacrity.

He gained more than 11 lengths with his jumping, which is something we are getting used to with him. Overall, he has grabbed almost 72 lengths in the air over fences this season.

Gold Dancer was below par the previous time he has tackled 3m, but the ground was desperate that day and he seems much more effective on better going.

His Finishing Speed Percentage at Cheltenham was almost 105%, so he was not wilting, and only the winner, the exciting Meetmebythesea, was stronger in the closing stages. That suggests the longer trip here could be with his range, especially away from soft ground.

The data is negative about Doyen Quest, who has a Jump Index of just 6.6, and Salver. The latter kept on well to be third in the Brown Advisory, but he lost ground at all but one of the first 17 fences and gave himself a hard time. 

Jump Index: 8.5. Top Speed: 36.42mph. 

Lengths gained jumping over hurdles: 46.27. 

Sober Glory’s jumping has been a joy this season, gaining him lots of lengths. 

It was also exemplary up until the final flight of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last month, when he led his rivals a merry dance until a rare error at the final flight cost him dear.

He got a mark of 6.7 out of 10 for that leap, having scored 9.8 and 10 at the previous two. The winner, Old Park Star, lost a mile par hour less than him and was also a second quicker to get back up to full speed than him, which proved critical.

Baron Noir was an eye-catching fourth in the Supreme after being held up off a strong pace, but he still faces a stiff task turning the tables. He was 0.37sec slower than Sober Glory in the final furlong, even though the winner had gone hard from the front (the winning time was 2.88sec quicker than the Champion Hurdle later in the afternoon) and made that late mistake. 

Jump Index: 7.7. Top Speed: 36.49 mph. 

Lengths Gained Jumping past 4 starts: 22.5. 

Heart Wood put up a career best when thumping Jonbon by ten lengths in the Ryanair Chase last month and can repeat the dose. 

He clocked the Top Speed at Cheltenham, achieved the Fastest Furlong of the race and was the only runner with a Finishing Speed of more than 100 per cent. He also gained more lengths jumping than any of his rivals, swiping 6.66 along the way. 

I’m a big fan of Grey Dawning and fancied him for the Gold Cup last month, but his jumping lacked polish, confirmed by the data (he gained ground at only one of the final 11 fences) and he was running on empty by the end. His final furlong was 17.04sec, while the winner, Gaelic Warrior, dipped under 15sec

That tough race could leave him vulnerable at a track where he is 0/4. 

Jump Index: 7.2. Top Speed: 36.13mph. 

Lengths gained at Aintree this season: 23.37. 

Mahons Glory relishes the Grand National fences, having already run crackers in the Grand Sefton and Becher Chase this season. 

He’s achieved Jump Index scores of 8.3 and 8.5 in those contests, making a lot of the running each time before being pegged back late on. 

A 6lb rise for his easy win at Huntingdon last time makes life tougher for him, but he’s a big price to again make his presence felt. 

Last year’s 1-2, Gentleman De Mee and Lisnamult Lad, are also worth monitoring. The former performed wonders to come from last to first, being No 1 in several metrics, while the latter did little wrong in defeat, gaining 15.56 lengths with his jumping. 

Neither have offered much this season, but that could be about to change.