The 2025 Grand National: Andy Stephens predicts where they will all finish

We are going to need all the clues we can get in the hunt to identify the winner of the Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday.

And this year, for the first time, we have the RaceiQ Jump Index to give us a helping hand in choosing between the runners who will line up for the world’s greatest Jumps race.

This metric quantifies a horse’s jumping ability throughout its career. It compares the efficiency, speed and fluency of a horse's jumps against all those recorded in the RaceiQ database over the past couple of years.

The index then produces a score out of ten reflecting how afficiently a horse gets from A to B. This figure means we can compare the jumping abilities of horses that have never run against each other, independent of any differences in tracks, ground conditions, or race distances.

A score of seven (feel free to mimic the late Len Goodman) is about average. Anything above that is encouraging.

Of course, a good jumping technique is far from the only attribute required to win a Grand National, especially since modifications this century have made the course easier to negotiate. Twenty-one of the 32 runners last year completed without mishap.

Speed, stamina, courage, a handy weight and a bit of good fortune are other essential components.

A maximum field of 34 has been declared. Below are pen pictures of them all - in the order I prefer them - plus their respective Jump Index scores.

BEST 9 JUMPERS ACCORDING TO THE RACEIQ JUMP INDEX (marks out of 10): Hewick 8.4. Intense Raffles 8.2. Grangeclare West 8. Hitman 7.9. Hyland 7.9. Iroko 7.9. Kandoo Kid 7.9. Minella Cocooner 7.9. Perceval Legallois 7.9.

RUNNERS WHO HAVE WON OVER THE GRAND NATIONAL FENCES (1): I Am Maximus, winner of the big race last year, is in a league of his own here.

OTHER RUNNERS WITH A TOP FOUR FINISH OVER THE GRAND NATIONAL FENCES (5): Minella Indo, Kandoo Kid, Coko Beach, Vanillier and Celebre D’Allen.

GRADE ONE WINNERS (12): Appreciate It (3), Bravemansgame (3), Minella Indo (3), Chantry House (2), Conflated (2), Hewick (2), Royale Pagaille (2), Grangeclare West (1), I Am Maximus (1), Minella Cocooner (1), Stay Away Fay (1), Vanillier (1).

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WINNERS (7): Minella Indo (2), Appreciate It, Chantry House, Iroko,  Stay Away Fay, Stumptown and Vanillier.

GREYS (7) : Kandoo Kid, Intense Raffles, Coko Beach, Fil Dor, Hyland, Vanillier and Duffle Coat. Will it pay to go grey: Click here for more. William Hill offer 3-1 against a grey winning.

OWNER JP McMANUS' FIVE RUNNERS: I Am Maximus, Iroko, Percevallegallois, Meetingofthewaters and Chantry House.

MARES (0)

HORSES WHOSE HANDICAP MARKS HAVE RISEN SINCE THE WEIGHTS WERE PUBLISHED IN FEBRUARY: Intense Raffles (+5), Threeunderthrufive (+2). Stumptown's new cross-country rating is unknown but he is probably 4lb or 5lb well in as he runs off 157 - the same mark he won off at Cheltenham. Then again, he's 8lb badly in on his form over regulation fences (rated 149). Mr Vango would have been 9lb well-in but didn't make the cut.

HORSES WHOSE HANDICAP MARKS HAVE FALLEN MORE THAN 1LB SINCE THE WEIGHTS WERE PUBLISHED IN FEBRUARY: Royale Pagaille (-5), Conflated (-4), Coko Beach (-4), Twig (-3), Stay Away Fay (-3), Roi Mage (-3), Horantzau d'Airy (-3), Broadway Boy (-2), Celebre d'Allen (-2), Fantastic Lady (-2), Idas Boy (-2), Minella Cocooner (-2), Nick Rockett (-2), Shakem Up'arry (-2), Yeah Man (-2).

The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has got his head in front just twice since, but he's run some fine races in defeat - including when third in last year’s National. He led at the final fence after jumping and travelling beautifully under Rachael Blackmore (who rides again) but got run out of things in the closing stages. Minella Indo gets a 9lb pull in the weights with the winner, I Am Maximus, is versatile regards the ground and has been kept fresh for his return, with the Cross Country at Cheltenham last month being resisted even though he would have had a great chance. In his one run over fences this term, he had Hewick behind. No horse of his age has prevailed in the National since Amberleigh House in 2004 but, then again, few of his quality have tried, and in any case he remains low mileage. He's had only 26 races, just two more than well-fancied eight year-old Stumptown, and 16 less than Hewick, who is ten. Amberleigh House? He was having his 60th race. It will be overlooked by plenty, too, that Bless The Wings (57th run) was a 13-year-old when third in 2018, as was 100-1 chance Vics Canvas (32nd run) in 2016. Doubts about whether he can overcome Father Time, let alone 33 rivals, are offset by his chunky odds. There's no way that, on form, he should be 33-1.

Stays well, jumps well and has a touch of class. Seems to come good each spring, such as this time last year when he won the bet365 Gold Cup after his close third to Intense Raffles in the Irish Grand National. Ran a creditable trial at Fairyhouse last time and is versatile regards the ground. Keep in mind, too, that his sire, Flemensfirth, has been responsible for three National runners-up (King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light), while his grandad, Old Vic, sired two National winners (Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It) plus two runners-up. And his great grandad, Roselier, was responsible for other leading Aintree performers such as Bindaree, Royal Athlete, Suny Bay and Moorcroft Boy. 

Jumped superbly and travelled powerfully for a long way in the race last year before fading to be seventh. His stamina was possibly stretched by the testing conditions that day, plus he’d had a busy season. Should be fresher this time after a much lighter campaign and no surprise if he puts up another bold bid from the right end of the weights on better going. He was my ante-post tip at 33-1 when the weights were released in February but his run since then was a little underwhelming and I now find others a bit more seductive, for all that Danny Mullins is back on board. 

Won a stamina-sapping Irish Grand National on heavy ground last year and he enhanced his Aintree claims when a close second to Nick Rockett (now 15lb better off with that rival) on unfavourable terms at Fairyhouse last time. His chance is there for all to see but niggles are that he generally enjoys making the running/racing prominently and that he’s done virtually all his racing on soft or heavy ground. Nevertheless, he’s an accurate jumper with staying power and, 5lb well-in, must be on any shortlist. 

The £800 bargain buy has already achieved far more than anyone could imagine, with his exploits in Britain including landing the bet365 Gold Cup in 2022 and the King George in 2023. Is a good jumper, shapes like a thorough stayer these days and gained a confidence-boosting win over hurdles last time. The better the ground, the better his chance, and the dry build-up has been a plus for him, although Aintree will have been putting on plenty of water.

Emphatic winner last year, having won the Irish National the previous year. I wouldn’t worry too much about two subdued spins at the highest level this season, but he’s obliged to carry top weight this time (8lb higher in the ratings than 12 months) and no horse since Red Rum has pulled that off. Doubts remain over his jumping technique and, to a lesser degree, his temperament. That did not stop him powering home 12 months ago. 

His one win over fences came in a five-runner novice chase at Warwick 16 months ago, but that masks the fact that he’s run some fine races over fences, including when chasing home Inothewayurthinkin in a Grade One contest over 3m at the Grand National meeting last year. Connections stated at the start of the season that this race was his big target (they might have been wise to keep that to themselves because several of his runs have since come under closer scrutiny) and, stamina wise, they will be encouraged that his half-brother, and stablemate, was a staying-on third in attritional Devon National in February. Showed his ability to handle the hurly burly of a big field when winning over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival in 2023. 

Snapped a two-year losing sequence when scoring in good style at Uttoxeter last time, having been fourth in the Welsh Grand National before that. That was a timely return to form as he needed a big run to have any chance of making the cut here (the weights were framed just three days later) and his close third behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago lingers in the memory. Comes in under the radar.

The form of his Paddy Power Chase win over Christmas has worked out well and he then followed up in a staying hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (unfortunate not to have won at that meeting for the past three years). Unraced beyond 3m and career-high mark to overcome, but commands respect for the trainer-owner-jockey combination who landed this month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

The lightly raced nine-year-old has yet to justify his £430,000 price tag but he put up a career-best on his penultimate start when chasing home Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup, with Fact To File and Inothewayurthinkin filling the next two places. That form has a glow but you do have to forgive him a poor subsequent run at Navan last time. It could have been that he disliked the heavy ground that day. 

Has developed into a cross-country specialist this season and is able to race off the same mark as when staying on stoutly to win at the Cheltenham Festival this month. Much depends on whether this challenge will suit him so well, plus whether he has fully recharged his batteries after only 24 days off the track.  Will be re-equipped with blinkers for the first time in a year.

Ran a screamer when runner-up two years ago but cut little ice when trying to go one better 12 months ago. Blinkers have galvanised him on his most recent starts in cross-country races, with an easy win at Punchestown being followed by a staying-on third to stablemate Stumptown at Cheltenham. That latter effort needs marking up as his rider compromised his chance by almost taking the wrong course. Demands a second look, although value squeezed out of his price. 

Took well to the National fences when a close third in the Topham last year and scooped the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on his return. The grey disappointed back there last time over a shorter trip, although that run was probably just to keep him ticking over.  Remains unexposed as a stayer and has had a light campaign with this race at the top of his agenda for 12 months. 

Interesting contender moving up to a trip which may unlock more improvement. The second-season novice has some smart form on his CV and, like plenty of his siblings, he stays well. Had Now Is The Hour back in fourth when landing a beginners chase at Navan in January and that horse may well have won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (off a rating of 139) but for exiting two out. Three Card Brag runs off 146 here. He has since been third in a muddling Grade Two contest at the same track, when not jumping as well as he can.

Stuck to his task when fourth in the Scottish Grand National two years ago and ran a cracker when beaten a nose at Ascot last time. That effort came after the weights for this contest had been published, so he’s 2lb well-in here for a multiple champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, who can pull rabbits out of that hat. Will be ridden by Harry Skelton, whose brother, Dan, leads the trainers' championship. Nicholls is his closest challenger.

Likeable customer who arrives at the top of his game, but he looks handicapped up the hilt and not sure to stay the extreme trip. Edged out Intense Raffles last time but now finds himself is 15lb worse off at the weights with a rival who seems a more certain stayer. Trained by Willie Mullins and his son, Patrick, will be in the plate.

Did not do himself justice when pulled up in last year’s Irish National and got back on the up when scoring on his return at Cheltenham in October. Let down by his jumping at Newbury next time and latest spin over hurdles merely a building block for here. Remains unexposed as a stayer although the handicapper has done him no favours. 

Useful staying hurdler who has enjoyed a decent first season over fences, although this could be a bit of a shock to his system given that he’s mostly been contesting small-field novice chases. Distant second in a Kempton handicap last time under a forced change of tactics (often a front-runner but came from well off the pace after a false start). Nicky Henderson, his six-time champion trainer, has famously never landed the National despite holding a licence since 1978.  

His owners won the National with Corbiere in 1983. The 2024 Midlands National winner is blessed with similar stamina and was a runaway winner at Ascot when last seen over fences in November. However, he’s been hit hard by the handicapper and looks vulnerable off his new rating on the drying ground.  

Won his first four races over hurdles but has found life tough going since then, gaining only one more victory from 27 races. Has run well in defeat several times, including when runner-up in the Galway Plate in July, and might have been placed in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time, too, but for being brought down two out. 

Looked a contender after chasing home Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November (might have won but for thumping four out) but he’s run lamentably on his past two starts. Suddenly has plenty to prove. 

Top-class performer in his prime but there’s been a steady decline in the past two years, including in the jumping department. Even if he suddenly revives, there’s a big question mark as to whether this distance is within his range. 

Dour stayer in his element at Haydock when the mud is flying but recent efforts suggest the 11-year-old is on the downgrade. Others less exposed and much better handicapped. 

The 2022 Irish Gold Cup winner is not the force of old and is an unlikely stayer. On the plus side, he took a step back in the right direction over an inadequate trip at Cheltenham last time and he’s run with distinction at the Grand National meeting a couple of times before (over the Mildmay fences). 

Not short of ability and easy enough to imagine him running well for a long way but he’s notoriously difficult to win with (last victory was in November 2022) and has a big stamina question to answer. 

The runaway Supreme Novice Hurdle winner in 2021 has never won beyond 2m5f and is not an obvious one to relish this test. 

The last 13-year-old to win was back in 1923 and it’s difficult to imagine a teenage horse ever landing a modern-day National. Celebre D’Allen won on his latest start, at  Bangor five months ago, and has run several good race over the National fences,  but all his best form has been up to 3m.   

Likeable type who has mainly been kept over hurdles this season to protect his handicap mark. However, he didn’t jump with his usual zip and offered little back over the bigger obstacles at Doncaster despite the good ground being in his favour. Others much easier to enthuse about. 

The 2023 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner made a promising start over fences, but he’s had a miserable time in the past year, not helped by a dirty scope on one occasion and a breathing issue on another. Wind surgery in the summer has not helped relight his fire but well handicapped if his issues can ever be resolved (had Grey Dawning behind when they made their respective chasing debuts in November 2023). Has had three different jockeys booked this week.

Grand National glory has evaded six-time champion trainer Nicky Henderson since he took out a licence in 1978 and it’s difficult to see this 11-year-old ending his elusive quest. Let down by his jumping when well held at Cheltenham last time. 

Has made little impression in the past three editions of the National and it’s easy enough to expect similar after a fruitless campaign. The one ray of light for his supporters is that he is 11lb lower in the ratings than 12 months ago. 

Runner-up in two Nationals this season – the Kerry and Munster versions – but changed hands for 50,000gns this month and that has to be a negative as you would think it unlikely that Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci would let a potential Grand National winner slip through their fingers. Has looked in the grip of the handicapper and would not be an obvious stayer on form or breeding. Rookie trainer yet to have a winner over Jumps.

Owned by the Dozen Dreamers and you need a vivid imagination to entertain the idea of this 11-year-old hitting the jackpot. Can take little interest and prone to making mistakes. Offered little over hurdles at Doncaster this month after a seven-month break. 

All bar one of his six wins have been achieved over 2m (the exception came in a match over 2m 6f) and there’s nothing in his form or pedigree to suggest he will stay anything like this far.