The 2025 Cheltenham Festival: a super statistic for every race

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable. Mark Twain’s observation holds true, especially when it comes to next week’s Festival.

Stats, facts, trivia and trends can provide us with a clue or two in the search for Cheltenham winners but don’t let them cloud your thinking. Rules are there to be broken!

The below merely reflects many notable Festival patterns.

And if you click on the race title, you can read about plenty more plus watch a plethora of memorable replays.

Half of the past dozen winners have had an official rating of 153 or higher. They have been Vautour (155), Douvan (155), Altior (155), Klassical Dream (154), Shishkin (153) and Appreciate It (153). had a mark of 148 before his stunning success in 2022, having had only two runs beforehand. Kopek Des Bordes is hot favourite for Tuesday’s race and is clearly well qualified with a rating of 157. However, it is not always that straightforward. My Tent Or Yours had a rating of 162 in 2013, but was upstaged by Champagne Fever (148), with a future Champion Hurdle winner, Jezki (154), back in third. 

There was a time, not so long ago, when five-year-olds were dominant in the Arkle. 

Half of the winners between 1998 and 2006 were from that age group courtesy of Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes. They might have had a fifth had Frozen Groom not fallen three out when moving well, in the lead, in the 2000 renewal, and Twist Magic was also bang in contention when departing in the closing stages in 2007. 

The triumphant quartet were blessed with plenty of ability but also benefited from significant weight-for-age allowances, designed to compensate younger horses for their immaturity when taking on their elders. The allowances were intended to make for a level playing field, but the scales had been tipped disproportionately in favour of the youngest runners in the race and in 2007 before the weight-for-age allowance in the Arkle was scrapped. 

Since then, only ten five-year-olds have run in the and all of them have been beaten, with Fakir D’Oudairies, the runner-up in 2020, faring best. They have had several well-fancied contenders over that time, although none have gone off shorter than 11-4. 

It's all change this year, with Majborough odds-on to cement his status as an outstanding young racehorse. He is the first Triumph Hurdle winner since Made In Japan, in 2004, to go straight over fences. Incidentally, that horse finished eighth in the Arkle. 

It’s just a shame that Sir Gino, another five-year-old, will not be lining up alongside him after health issues. 

Nine of the past 13 runnings of the Ultima have been won by a horse wearing some form of headgear (never a visor) at prices ranging between 15-2 and 28-1. On four occasions they’ve enjoyed a 1-2, and in 2016 a spectacular 1-2-3 (the Trifecta paid £2,025). In 2018, one of the two years they missed out, the visored Shantou Flyer was beaten a neck at 14-1. A total of 118 horses have worn headgear in the race since 2012. Meanwhile, 167 have worn none. If you’d put £10 on every horse wearing headgear in the race since 2012, you would be showing a profit of £155. Had you put £10 on all the horses without headgear, you would have lost £1,350. 

Willie Mullins didn’t have a runner in the first renewal, in 2008. Since then, he has saddled ten of the 16 winners (admittedly Quevega won six of them) and it would have been 11 had Benie Des Dieux not fallen at the final flight in 2019 with victory at her mercy. He’s also been responsible for the runner-up on four of the occasions when failing to hit the target. None of his trio in 2023 finished in the first three but normal service was resumed last year when Lossiemouth prevailed. She remains engaged in the race, with Mullins’ other contenders including the well-fancied Jade De Grugy. Henry De Bromhead’s runners are also worth noting. He won the race with Honeysuckle in 2020 and 2023, plus fielded the second, third and fourth last year at 22-1, 40-1 and 18-1. His main hope this time looks July Flower. 

The past ten winners – Faugheen (111), Annie Power (11), Buveur D’Air (111), Buveur D’Air (111), Espoir D’Allen (111), Epatante (11), Honeysuckle (11), Honeysuckle again (111), Constitution Hill (11) and State Man (111) all lined up having not been beaten that season. Constitution Hill (11) and Brighterdaysahead (111) have been flawless this campaign, but all the other possible runners have suffered at least one defeat this campaign. In addition, 30 of the past 34 winners of the race won on their most recent start. That does not augur well for Lossiemouth, although she is unbeaten in three races at Cheltenham. 

It's early days with the Boodles but the Naas novice hurdle won by Bacchanalian last month has yielded the winner in four of the past six years. Murcia (second), Ephesus (third) and Holy See (fourth) could all represent the Naas race this time. Jazzy Matty (18-1) was the latest to oblige two years ago, having finished fourth in that Naas race. In common with half of the 20 winners of the Boodles, he began his career in France. Gaelic Warrior and Saint have been others to go agonisingly close to boosting the tally. 

This race has been tinkered with in recent years and this year, for the first time, it’s become a handicap and open to professional jockeys. Gordon Elliott had 15 runners in the National Hunt Chase in its former guise, having four winners and twice being responsible for the runner-up. His winners have been Chicago Grey (5-1), Cause Of Causes (8-1), Tiger Roll (16-1) and Ravenhill (12-1) so you would be showing a healthy profit if you had backed him blind. And four years ago he prepared Galvin, who won, and Escaria Ten, who was third, but they ran under the name of Denise Foster for well-documented reasons. So, you could say he’s had five winners from 17 runners in it. His principal hope on Tuesday looks to be Will Do. 

The New Lion is disputing favouritism but the record of Challow Hurdle winners in this race stands at zero from 20, with Stage Star Bravemansgame and Hermes Allen being the past three to come up short. That trio were all trained by Paul Nicholls, while Dan Skelton, the trainer of The New Lion, was formerly an assistant for him. The last Challow winner to win at the Festival in the same season was Wichita Lineman, who went on to win the Albert Bartlett in 2007. Irish-trained runners finished 1-2-3-4-5 last year, and 1-2-3-4 12 months before, plus 1-2 in the three years before that. The only British-trained winner in the past decade has been Willoughby Court, who led home a 1-2-3-4 for the home team in 2017. 

Dancing City is the only runner in the line-up who has yet to be beaten over fences. Thiscentury there have been only five Brown Advisory victors to return to the winner’s enclosure with an unblemished record over the larger obstacles – Denman, Don Poli, Monkfish, L’Homme Presse and The Real Whacker. Denman would also remain unbeaten the next season, with the highlight being his defeat of Kauto Star the 2008 Gold Cup. The last horse to complete the Brown Advisory-Gold Cup double was Bobs Worth in 2013. 

Novices have a poor record but lightly raced, second-season hurdlers tend to thrive. Since 2000, only six winners have run more than ten times over hurdles. Supasundae won the 2017 edition, having been seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the previous year.  His half-brother, Supersundae (see what they did there?) could line up this year, having also finished seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 12 months earlier. 

No fewer than 15 of the 19 winners had run at the track earlier in the season. Galvin would be an exception if successful this year, but he has plenty of previous experience of the course. In addition, most cross-country contenders school over the fences beforehand with Cheltenham’s blessing. The race was first run in 2005, with 32 obstacles having to be negotiated. There have been 281 runners but only seven runners have ever fallen, including two in the first running. All 16 runners completed in 2010. 

In the past 33 years, ten winners had landed the Arkle Chase 12 months earlier. They have been: Remittance Man (won the Champion Chase in 1992), Klairon Davis (1996), Moscow Flyer (2003), Azertyuiop (2004), Voy Por Ustedes (2007), Sizing Europe (2011), Sprinter Sacre (2013), Altior (2018) and Put The Kettle On (2021). The SPs have included 10-1, 9-1 and 17-2, so it’s been a profitable route to follow. Gaelic Warrior could seek to improve the record this time. Only one horse older than 10 (Moscow Flyer) has won since 1978. That does not augur well for two-time winner of the race Energumene. 

Eleven of the past 14 winners have had an official rating of between 138 and 147. Global Citizen was a rare older horse to prevail in 2022 - only the third winner since 1998 to be ten or older – but was not typical of his age group, given he was having only his sixth start over fences. Within the 138-147 group this time are the Gavin Cromwell-trained pair The King Of Prs and Path D’oroux, who dominated the finish of a Fairyhouse handicap last time. 

Willie Mullins has had the winner 13 times since it was first run in 1992 – plus plenty of near-misses – and rode his 1996 conqueror, Wither Or Which, himself. However, punters looking to cash in on his dominance should note the market often gets his runners wrong. Facile Vega and Jasmin De Vaux have been recent “first strings” to deliver but five of his previous six winners were returned at 12-1 (Cousin Vinny), 16-1 (Champagne Fever), 25-1 (Briar Hill), 25-1 (Relegate) and 11-1 (Ferny Hollow). The shortest-priced Mullins runners in those races finished sixth, third, eighth, fifth and second. So, don’t rely on the market telling you accurately what the best of the Mullins brigade might be. 

Willie Mullins was responsible for the first five winners of this race – all of them French-breds who started their careers in France. He’s lost his grip in the past four years but again has leading contenders, including Karoline Banbou, who fits the profile of his previous winners. The first nine winners have all been aged five or six, with six of them having previously won or been placed in a Graded race. 

The Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase has replaced the Grade One Turners Novices’ Chase. Willie Mullins had lost the knack of winning the now defunct race. He scooped four of the first six renewals but in the last seven years of its existence he was out of luck with his 17 runners finishing 4P60U235836F34679 despite a number being leading fancies. So perhaps it is good news for Mullins that he no longer has to worry about how to crack the race. The bad news is that the champion trainer, with a record 103 Festival winners in the bag, has had 47 runners in handicap chases at the Festival and has still yet to win one. Cheltenham have added two more this year, just so the master handler has more opportunities to get that monkey off his back. 

A top-four finish in one of the qualifiers has been required to be eligible in the past couple of years, whereas it had been a top-six finish before that. None of the past ten winners have won a qualifier. Or even finished second in one. The last horse to win one and then land the Final was Fingal Bay, back in 2014. None of the past seven winners had won in the previous eight months, so don’t worry if your fancy is enduring a lean spell (you could even view it as a positive). The last to buck the trend was Presenting Percy in 2017, but he needed to as otherwise his rating would have been too low to make the cut. The Wallpark and Will The Wise are prominent in the ante-post betting this time but both have won qualifiers. 

Sixteen of the 20 Ryanair Chase winners have boasted at least one previous win at Cheltenham. The four exceptions have been Riverside Theatre, Balko Des Flo, Min and Allaho, but they all had at least some experience of the track. Il Est Francais has never run at Cheltenham and, as such, the French raider will break new ground if successful. Nicky Henderson, the trainer of 2012 hero Riverside Theatre has been out of luck with his past 11 runners. They’ve finished 43428050PP2, with two of those runners trailing home last. 

Teahupoo is a hot favourite to retain the crown he won last year. He would become the eighth multiple winner after Silver Bay (1912-13), Crimson Embers (1982 and 1986), Galmoy (1987-88), Baracouda (200203), Inglis Drever (2005, 2007-08), Big Buck’s (2009-2012) and Flooring Porter (2021-22). 

Shakem Up’arry (143) became the eleventh successive winner to be rated in the 140s when taking the spoils last season. Six of those have been novices or second-season chasers but the past three victors have all been ten or over, so age is no barrier. Venetia Williams has landed the race three times since 2007 with runners chalked up at 12-1, 33-1 and 50-1. She did not have  a runner in the race between 2019 and 2022 but Frero Banbou has represented her for the past two years. Her entries this year include Gemirande, quoted about 20-1. 

Just four winners since 1992 have been aged ten or older. Increasingly, this is a race for younger legs with seven of the past 12 renewals won by horses aged no older than seven. Only two of the past 20 winners won on their most recent start, while eight of the past 14 winners have worn some form of headgear. The race is restricted to horses rated no higher than 145. Four of the last six victors have been rated 141 or higher, so don’t dismiss those up near the top of the weights. 

No fewer than nine of the past 12 winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, with Quilixios and Vauban doing the double in recent years. This season’s renewal was won by Hello Neighbour, who is unbeaten in four starts on the Flat and over hurdles. 

Half of the past 18 winners have been trained by a member of the Mullins family (Willie x 7, Thomas x 1 and Tony x 1), while Dan Skelton, who has had four winners of the race during this time, seems to enjoy lining one up for this contest. Only two winners this century have scored off a rating in the 150s, so beware supporting those near the head of the weights. By contrast, the past two victors have run off 134 and 138. 

It’s only the fifth running of the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, so we don’t have many stats or trends to play with. But it is worth recognising that 16 of the 30 races run at the Festival exclusively for mares in recent years have been won by French-breds. This year’s favourite, Dinoblue, was herself bred in France. She looked an unlucky runner-up in this last year and, like the past three winners, is owned by JP McManus. 

Stellar Story became the tenth of the past 11 winners to go off at double-figure odds last year. The SPs have been 50-1, 33-1 (three times), 18-1 (twice), 16-1, 14-1 (twice) and 11-1. It is safe to say that it has been a bookmaker benefit with At Fisher Cross (2013) being the last favourite to oblige. Among the 20 winners of the race, Monkfish and The Nice Guy are the only victors not to have won or been placed in a Graded novice hurdle beforehand, although the former had won his previous two starts and the latter was unbeaten. 

Golden Miller won the Gold Cup five years in succession (1932-1936) when it was regarded as the main trial for the . Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-04) have been triple winners and Galopin Des Champs will join this elite band if he triumphs for a third time. Cottage Rake subsequently lost his form, Arkle was injured in the King George later in the year and was retired, while Best Mate ran on just three more occasions. Make sure you savour him while you can. Al Boum Photo, also trained by Willie Mullins, was the last horse to bid for three Gold Cup wins. He finished third, when 9-4 favourite, in his hat-trick attempt. 

Perhaps appropriately, 31 of the past 36 winners began their careers in point-to-points or hunter chases. Seven of the past 15 winners had finished in the first five in a previous year’s renewal, so don’t rule out Its On The Line making it third time lucky after being runner-up in the past two editions. This year’s favourite, Angels Dawn, did not start in the point-to-point area, and will be having her first run in the race, although she did win at the Festival two years ago. 

Nine of the past 14 renewals have been plundered by Irish runners, with all bar two of them having their first run in a handicap. None of Willie Mullins’ four winners had previously run over hurdles more than three times but a rule change means all runners must now have had a minimum of five runs. He could run French recruit Kopeck De Mee, absent since having his fifth run over hurdles ten months ago. David Pipe would naturally love to win the race that honours his father and he could be represented by Punta Del Este. Since the first running, in 2009, Pipe has had 23 runners and got no closer than third. Big Eared Fran (third in 2009 at 7-2); Ashkazar (seventh in 2010 at 9-2) and Gevrey Chambertin (pulled up at 9-4) all went off favourite, while he has had four other runners beaten at single-figure odds.