Tom Thurgood analyses what promises to be an epic Cheltenham Festival encounter with Epatante, Honeysuckle and Goshen among 10 declarations
Not long now.
The Cheltenham Festival creeps ever closer and this year's Unibet Champion Hurdle looks a fitting highlight on the opening day of the great meeting as star mares Honeysuckle and Epatante take on young pretender Goshen and more besides in a compelling race in prospect.
Here's a closer look at the 10 contenders and a big-race verdict.
1. ABACADABRAS
Festival form: 42 Official rating: 158 Odds: 11-1
Positives: He clearly improves throughout a campaign and ran his best race in senior company last time behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle when his stable was not fully firing. He should improve again now and was only beaten by a top-class rival at last year’s meeting.
Negatives: It’s no secret he has his quirks, and showed those again when off the bridle in the closing stages last time. It’s difficult to see him reversing form with Honeysuckle, while his Morgiana success from earlier in the season has taken a few knocks.
Verdict: He would be a more surprising winner than not given the two star mares in opposition but holds strong place claims.
2. ASPIRE TOWER
Festival form: 2 Official rating: 160 Odds: 16-1
Positives: He’s acquitted himself well stepping up into senior company this season and kickstarted his campaign with clear-cut Grade Two victory from Abacadabras. He ran well on his last start behind Sharjah and has been the subject of positives noises by his top trainer.
Negatives: He disappointed on his sole Festival start in last season’s JCB Triumph Hurdle, while Rachael Blackmore has partnered him in every jumps start and the top rider is set to ride Honeysuckle here. He will not get an easy time up front with so much potential pace on in this race.
Verdict: Likeable type who is still developing, but this is much his toughest task and not under his ideal conditions.
3. EPATANTE
Festival form: 91. Official rating: 161 Odds: 10-3
Watch how Epatante won the Unibet Champion Hurdle last year
Positives: A stylish winner of this race last year, she looked very good on her reappearance this season and her hurdling is particularly slick when on-song. She is the sole principal contender for Nicky Henderson, the most successful trainer in the history of this race.
Negatives: This race looks significantly stronger than last year’s renewal and she might need to be closer to the pace this time. She has to bounce back from a heavy odds-on defeat over Christmas, although the trainer is confident a physical reason (since addressed) was at play there.
Verdict: Last year’s winner warrants clear respect but she faces a stiffer challenge this time.
4. GOSHEN
Festival form: U. Official rating: 164. Odds: 7-2
Goshen bounced back to form in style last time out
Positives: Finally bounced back to form last time and in imperious style, smashing the admirable and 158-rated Song For Someone by 22 lengths. He would have won the JCB Triumph Hurdle last season by a street but for cruelly parting company with his rider after the final hurdle. He looks the one horse who could – potentially – blow this race apart.
Negatives: He will have some early competition for the lead, though he has been helped by Jason The Militant, For Pleasure, Song For Someone and Petit Mouchoir coming out at the declaration stage. Still, whether he can essentially make all in a Champion Hurdle remains to be seen and his best jumps form is in small fields. He's only had six hurdles runs, with one of those on his return a write-off. He’s a five-year-old that has to give weight to two older and top-class mares.
Verdict: Mercurial talent could blow this apart, but there’s just a bit more doubt about him than not at the prices against this competition.
5. HONEYSUCKLE
Festival form: 1. Official rating: 161 Odds: 9-4
Positives: The unbeaten mare arrives here after a scintillating effort in the Irish Champion Hurdle. On this season's evidence, she is learning to jump faster and has never looked more like a potential Champion Hurdle type.
Negatives: She can idle at the final flight when clear and Rachael Blackmore may have to time her challenge to a nicety. She may not able to blast her field apart in the same manner as last time on forecast better ground and off a stronger pace on the Old Course at Cheltenham.
Verdict: Sets the form standard this season and holds a favourite’s chance with the mares’ allowance.
6. JAMES DU BERLAIS
Festival form: - Official rating: - Odds: 20-1
Positives: He has a big reputation, top-class connections and excellent form in France. He has been pleasing at home according to a recent update from Willie Mullins and it’s telling this assignment could mark his stable debut.
Negatives: Unraced in Britain or Ireland and a new style of racing, you primarily feel connections want to see what they have before chasing next season. Mullins has stated that the five-year-old looked a difficult ride in France, while this age group has traditionally struggled in the race.
Verdict: A fascinating contender who might just harbour place prospects.
7. NOT SO SLEEPY
Festival form: 0 Official rating: 149 Odds: 66-1
Positives: He’s purposely been kept fresh for this year’s challenge and was last seen landing Grade Three honours at Ascot.
Negatives: To call him quirky is something of an understatement and he is unlikely to be able to boss this field with Goshen in opposition. He would prefer softer ground than he’s likely to get and, on the ratings, has plenty to find.
Verdict: The forecast odds tell the story and this year’s Champion Hurdle looks significantly stronger than the event in which he was pulled up last term.
8. SALDIER
Festival form: 5 Official rating: 156. Odds: 50-1
Positives: He’s still only seven and has had a big reputation - he might have beaten future Champion Hurdle hero Espoir D’Allen at the end of 2018 but for falling at the last. He is a Grade One winner and represents strong connections.
Negatives: He has suffered several setbacks in his career and has only beaten one rival home in his two assignments this season. He probably wants softer ground than he’s likely to encounter here.
Verdict: He needs to bounce back in a big way and would rate a shock winner.
9. SHARJAH
Festival form: 802 Official rating: 164 Odds: 16-1
Sharjah was no match for Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle
Positives: He ran a fine race last year to finish second, coming from much further back than the winner Epatante. He looked good as he usually does in the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, and the potential better ground here looks very much in his favour.
Negatives: Regular rider Patrick Mullins misses the meeting, while the pace looks stronger this year and he may struggle to make up ground if it doesn't relent. He was too keen and ultimately disappointing in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time, even if the ground wasn't ideal. He can blow hot and cold and whether the Old Course at Cheltenham is his ideal track is still contestable.
Verdict: He needs to bounce back, and in what looks a stronger Champion Hurdle this year.
10. SILVER STREAK
Festival form: 36 Official rating: 163 Odds: 14-1
Positives: This admirable campaigner finally landed Grade One honours last time at his beloved Kempton Park, while strictly on official ratings he’s a big price – rated 2lb higher than Epatante before considering her mares allowance, he’s also rated only 1lb inferior to Goshen. The better ground will suit.
Negatives: His latest mark looks inflated on the balance of his consistent career and this is his third attempt at the race after finishing sixth behind Epatante last season.
Verdict: Likeable type deserves another shot after breakthrough Grade One success last time and, with just ninners to contest with, could land some decent prize money.
TOM'S BIG-RACE VERDICT
This is a fascinating race but one in which a surprise is not readily expected. While several have place prospects, the top four contenders in the market look the ones to focus on. After the declaration stage, the forecast pace doesn't look as frenentic as it might have been and with 10 runners we should hopefully get a fair race with no excuses for any.
HONEYSUCKLE is unbeaten, but more importantly she’s never looked a more genuine Champion Hurdle contender after a career-best last time and her jumping looks slicker than ever. She will stay up the hill strongly and, even if the pace is not as strong as may have looked likely a few days ago, her excellent jockey is very likely to be in the right position. This mare could well be still improving and she is not opposable, though whether she's a betting proposition is a slightly different question. On my tissue I make her a 9-4 chance and I would back her at anything bigger than that.
Epatante has to bounce back, but it seems more likely than not that she will after an issue that’s reportedly been readily accounted for. She won well last year, but this a stronger race and is set to be run differently. Goshen would be the fairytale result in many ways but just looks short enough at the prices, while a bold bid from Abacadabras wouldn’t surprise. I make him 8-1 on my tissue and you might get a bit bigger than that for a potential each-way play.
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