Seven Cheltenham runners whose RaceiQ numbers add up

Trainer: Willie Mullins. What happened? third in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.  

Jump Allen is going to be in everyone else’s notebooks, so he may as well be at the top of mine. His third in the Festival finale, when sent off 8-1 third favourite, was very much a story of what might have been, as he flew from 18th to third in the last couple of furlongs.

Just for a moment it looked like he might do a “Big Strand” (google him and the words Coral Cup if you don’t know what I’m on about) but he ran out of road.

No horse at the meeting had a higher Finishing Speed Percentage than him over hurdles (108.16%) and it would have been higher, too, had his jockey, Anna McGuinness, not had to explore various routes in the closing stages before finally finding some clear water.

Jump Allen’s final furlong of 14.76sec was easily best, even if it was little, too late. No other horse dipped under 15.35sec and only five registered below 16sec.

Maybe the hold-up tactics might have yielded a different result had the opposition gone a decent tempo and come back to him. But this was a steadily run affair and it paid to be handy, with the winner Air Of Entitlement, never far off the pace.

Jump Allen was having his first run for 321 days and the one niggle about following him over the weeks ahead will be the “bounce factor”. But on the plus side he finished with plenty left in his tank and didn’t seem to have the hardest of races.

The £75,000 William Hill Hurdle at Aintree, on April 10, over 2m 4f, look an obvious next move for him. 

Trainer: Thomas Cooper. What happened? seventh in the Turners’ Novices Hurdle. 

The Racing TV post-race comments for Shuttle Diplomacy are “faded near finish” and that’s a fair summary as he lost three places in the closing stages.

He went off at 50-1 but was entitled to finish somewhere close to the winner, King Rasko Grey, having been beaten under three lengths by him over 2m at Limerick earlier in the campaign when conceding 8lb.

His final furlong of 57.04sec on this occasion was only tenth best of the field. And had the data just been measuring his final half-furlong, when his petrol gauge began running on empty, he would have been a lot further down the list.

This was the six-year-old’s first run beyond an extended 2m 2f and he did not quite get home. A drop back in distance surely beckons.

Shuttle Diplomacy had an official rating of 138 coming into this and is likely to stay there or thereabouts. He would be of great interest in a top-end handicap over shorter, not least because his jumping stats here were off the charts.

His overall Jump Index score of 9.6 was joint highest for the whole meeting (tied with Brighterdaysahead) and helped him gain 6.49 lengths, with only two other hurdlers (Hewick and Mondoui'boy) swiping more over the four days. Also, his average speed lost at each flight was only 1.5sec, which was second best for the whole meeting.

He had also gained 32 lengths in the air in his previous two races, so this was not a one-off.

Shuttle Diplomacy would be an intriguing runner in the £100,000 Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr on April 18, but his connections are not short of options. 

Trainer: Dan Skelton. What happened? third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

The five-year-old ran a stormer to be a close third behind older rivals in the opening race of the meeting and early quotes of 20-1 about him for next year’s Unibet Champion Hurdle are worth a second look. 

He looked the likely winner at the final hurdle but then Old Park Star, the winner, and Sober Glory, who finished second, played a spontaneous game of bumper cars with him on the climb to the line.

It would be stretching it to say he was an unlucky loser, with Old Park Star staying on resolutely, but he might well have grabbed second without the interference and he will be a more complete model another year from now.

The Supreme was run in a time 2.88sec quicker than the Champion Hurdle later in the afternoon and that tells you something, even if it can be attributed to his race being run at stronger fractions.

It looks a more solid piece of form than either the Turners or Triumph, but it seems the first two home are going chasing next season. In addition, Champion Hurdle runner-up Brighterdaysahead is heading over fences next term.

A weak division is crying out for new faces and Mydaddypaddy fits the bill, with his jumping looking well up to the demands of the highest level. His average entry speed to each hurdle was the quickest of the whole meeting at 32.57mph (Lossiemouth was 32.52sec). And his overall Jump Index score of 9.3 out of ten was fifth best over the four days. 

Trainer: Willie Mullins. What happened? ninth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

The talking horse was muted, with the pre-Festival chatter about him being in “Faugheen territory” a little wide of the mark.

However, I would not be in a rush to write him off as he moved powerfully through the race, jumping fluently (got a Jump Index score of 8.8), before backing out of things from two out. 

Time may well tell that a 2m race on the Old Course away from soft ground (even a well-run one) was a completely inadequate test for him. His runaway maiden hurdle win had come on desperate going, after all, and he’d kept on well in his sole point to point contest over 3m.

His stride data also points to him being a stayer with more galloping tracks likely to suit.

 He averaged just 1.98 strides per second last week and peaked at 2.13, and at one stage his stride hit a massive 8.34 metres, which was easily the longest by any of the 475 horses in action at the meeting. 

Incidentally, the top three peak high striders at the Festival in RaceiQ’s database, since 2023, are completed by Ballyburn (8.17 metres) and Appreciate It (8.06 metres). If Mighty Park goes on to be as successful as that pair, then he will not be doing badly. 

Trainer: Connor King. What happened? fourth in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. 

Good horse. Scruffy jumper. 

If Oscars Brother ever improves his technique of getting from A to B, then he could scale the heights in the staying division. 

It was easy to overlook him in the Brown Advisory as most eyes were drawn to Kitzbuhel and Final Demand having a ding-dong clash from some way out. He was never in the hunt but stuck on gamely to be beaten 5½ lengths. 

That was a remarkable effort given the data tells us he lost 18.54 lengths with his jumping. By contrast, Kitzbuhel and Final Demand were each nudging gains of almost nine lengths. So, the swing was more than 27 lengths. 

Oscars Brother has now had six runs over fences and his career Jump Index score of 5.9 confirms how inefficient he is in that department. He had won his three previous starts despite surrendering an aggregate of about 23 lengths with his leaping. 

His trainer said on Monday that the Grand National is still under consideration for him. These days it’s nowhere near the jumping test it once was, so don’t discount him. 

Exhibit A is I Am Maximus, the National winner in 2024 and runner-up last year. He also has his own way at negotiating fences, losing 120 lengths in his past 12 races. 

If Oscars Brother gets the green light to run at Aintree - and can keep ponderous jumps to a minimum - then he will be capable of making his presence felt. He’s a general 25-1 chance. 

Trainer: Ben Pauling. What happened? winner of the Jack Richards  

I rarely put winners in these types of columns, but I’m going to make an exception for Meetmebythesea because his data backs up the visual impression he made. 

He won by the best part of five lengths from a decent yardstick in Gold Dancer with the well-fancied Regent’s Stroll, who never put a foot wrong, back in third. The form looks rock solid and this was a clean race with the only two horses not to complete being outsiders who were pulled up. 

Meetmebythesea spent less time in the Jumping Envelope that any of his rivals (30 metres before and after the fence); entered each fence quicker than anything else (average 30.84mph); recovered best of all after each leap (average 0.55sec) plus boasted the Top Speed (36.39mph), most Lengths Gained (13.59 lengths) and best Finishing Speed (106.56%).  

It was a full package of goodies that suggests a 7lb rise from the handicapper will not stop him winning another good race or two. 

Last year’s winner of this race, Caldwell Potter, went on to win at Grade One level at Aintree, although he did win off 146 at Cheltenham.

Meetmebythesea won off 139 and so sticking to the handicaps would make more sense, at least in the short term. Putting him away for the campaign and aiming him at the Paddy Power Gold Cup, back at Cheltenham in November, would not be the worst plan. 

And then let's see how he can fly from there.

Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero. What happened? second in the Ultima Chase. 

JP McManus is assembling a phenomenal team for the Grand National with I Am Maximus, Iroko, Jagwar and Johnnywho all among the favourites. And his B team includes Oscars Brother, Spillane’s Tower and Perceval Legallois. 

The door is open for Jagwar to run at Aintree after his near miss last week, having previously not been qualified (you must be placed, at least, in a chase over 3m or more). 

As trials for the iconic race go, this was eye-catching to say the least. He stayed on strongly to be beaten just half a length, with his Finishing Speed Percentage being best for the seventh time in his past eight starts. 

Mark Walsh anchored him in rear in the 23-runner contest and when Jagwar blundered at the eighth, losing 6.71mph and 1.64 lengths, an already tough task looked an impossible one. 

A mile out the combination were still adrift in 14th place, half a mile out eighth. Nothing finished better in those final four furlongs (58.41sec) but he could not quite claw back Johnnywho. 

He would have another mile or so to negotiate in the National but his pedigree offers some encouragement with his siblings include stout stayer D’Jango and his auntie being related to Gold Cup winner The Fellow. The way he usually sees out his races and stride data (low cadence) are other positives.

Moreover, he will be among the most favourably handicapped, having been pushed up 5lb for this run. The National weights were set in stone in mid-February.