Saturday tips based on RaceiQ data: "He should prove hard to beat"

The action takes centre stage on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile again on Saturday, with the BETMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (2.40) the feature, and I think this contest look tailor-made for Fallen Angel to add to her Group One tally.

She finished behind Cinderella’s Dream at Royal Ascot, but I believe that was because she lacked the pace of the first two home. She was unable to quicken as they entered the home straight, and Cinderella’s Dream clocked faster sectionals than her in the sixth and seventh furlong.

However, Fallen Angel was quicker than that rival in the final furlong, and her victory in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last month demonstrated how effective she can be when stamina is at a premium over a mile.

The early fractions were strong there, and she hit a Top Speed of 40.67mph in the second furlong. To illustrate this further, it was the third-fastest Top Speed recorded at Leopardstown that day, so it was impressive she clocked a Finishing Speed Percentage of 99.41%.

Karl Burke’s charge is drawn in stall three and has Blue Bolt and Saqqara Sands close by to help her set a strong pace. She is a tough and resolute galloper, and I just can’t see anything quickening up from behind here.

There is also Graded action over obstacles on Saturday, with Gowran Park staging the Grade Two PWC Champion Chase (4.15), and this gives us a great opportunity to warm up our Jumps metrics ready for the season ahead.

For those of you less familiar with our Jumps metrics, our Jump Index rates a horse’s jumping ability as a score out of ten to help us understand who might have an edge.

Blood Destiny may not be the highest rated contender in the race, but his jumping could make all the difference here. 

His jumping is rated 8.2 out of 10 compared to Western Fold, who is only rated 7.9 out of 10. We are talking fine margins but, considering Western Fold only scored 7.5 out of 10 on his latest outing, there is a real chance that it could be his Achilles heel today.

I would also not dismiss Blood Destiny because of his Galway defeat as his best form is over this trip, and the sectionals highlight that he got tired last time out over further. He should prove hard to beat.