Thursday tips: Dave Nevison fancies a 16-1 shot at Nottingham

Gentle Warrior has enough positives going for him in this to suggest he should be a solid favourite. Karl Burke has his team in excellent form at present, as he pretty much always does, and this three-year-old is improving like many of his stablemates.

He didn’t quite manage to land the hat-trick last time, but was beaten less than a length into third place. That was in a 0-90 event, so he takes a drop down in grade with the top weight in this running off a mark of 83.

Jack Nicholls is going to be a name to note this winter now that he is firmly on the Burke roster and he keeps the ride after a good effort last time. Gentle Warrior broke his maiden at this course last October and wouldn’t mind if any rain were to fall.

Woodstock City had lost his form during the summer after a consistent run of things in the spring. However, his mark has reduced and he hinted at a return to form with a narrow defeat at Kempton on his latest start.

He is 2lb out the weights in this, but he is still 8lb below the mark he was a length second at Yarmouth in May, so looks well-handicapped if he has come out of his midsummer lull. 

That good effort came on similar ground to this afternoon’s, so I think he looks worth chancing at odds of 16-1.

It is perhaps not surprising that Roger Fell is applying cheekpieces to Harswell Ruby as she has finished runner-up in three of her last four starts.

Although she hasn’t visually done anything to make me wary of her, it definitely looks a sensible move trying the headgear in order to bring about improvement, especially as she is being dropped back down to a mile here.

She ran really well on her only previous appearance at Colwick Park and a truly run race, which seems likely, should suit her well and she looks a place banker at least.