Saturday tips: Page Fuller crunches the RaceiQ numbers

The big-race action starts early down at Newbury on Saturday, with the five-furlong Group Three Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (1.30) getting the action under way.

It’s a competitive but open contest, as has been the case for most of the pattern-level sprints so far this season.

Cover Up has a few pounds to find on some of his rivals, but good handicap form has held its own over five furlongs at this level already during this campaign.

He put in some creditable early efforts in the UAE this year, landing a five-furlong Listed contest, finishing a three-and-a-half lengths third in Group Two company, and a decent fourth in a Group Three. On his next two starts on home turf, he had to shoulder top weight in good handicaps but was beaten less than three lengths on both occasions.

Quietly fancied for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot on the back of those runs, he failed to fire over six furlongs, but then dropped back to the minimum trip in July, again at Ascot, he got his reward and struck under William Buick.

On the face of things, scoring that day off a mark of 97 ought to leave him with something to find here, but there are occasions when we need to rely on the race times to illustrate just what was achieved.

Despite carrying a chunky 9st 9lb, he still managed to win the race in a time 1.57 seconds faster than the RaceiQ Par Time. That is as impressive as it sounds over the minimum distance, and our Time Index rated it a 9.5 out of 10 on a day where the average was only 7.2.

He signed off last season with a win on soft ground, so the forecast wet weather shouldn’t be a problem, and I think this looks the perfect opportunity for Cover Up to successfully step back up in grade.

In the feature race of the day, the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (3.35), Ain’t Nobody looks a very strong candidate.

Not everything is in his favour today; he is drawn low, which historically hasn’t been a strong positive in this race, and there’s a chance this six-furlong trip stretches his stamina a little too much.

However, he was only beaten one and a quarter lengths in the Nunthorpe last month, and after that performance is technically 13lb well-in, the weights for this race having closed early.

The RaceiQ data says that his Nunthorpe effort was a massive run in defeat.

He was 0.41 seconds slower to 20mph than Asfoora, which immediately put him on the back foot early in the race, but he flew home, completing the final two furlongs in 22.71secs, faster than any other horse that ran at the York Ebor Festival.

His subsequent defeat at Haydock is forgiveable and Kevin Stott appeared not to give him a hard time once he knew his winning chance was gone, so he should still be fresh enough for this.