Saturday horse racing tips: Dave Nevison’s four best bets

2.21 Newbury: Diamond Bay

He's running up to his best at present and is perhaps the only one here likely to show improvement over this two-mile trip.

Diamond Bay might have taken a few runs to readjust back on turf this spring but showed last time that his turn could be near when staying on very well for second at Salisbury. He is stepped back up in trip here and that looks a good move. There are enough front-runners in this race to ensure a well-run event and that will further suit his running style.

Diamond Bay won off a mark of 65 in July last year and, with the exception of just one or two modest runs, has been on a pretty steady upward curve ever since. He can continue in that vein here under the bang in form David Probert who takes over in the saddle.

2.41 Market Rasen: Castel Gandolfo

He does look as though he’s been primed for this big summer meeting and I expect him to get the ball rolling on what may well be a good afternoon for Fergal O’Brien.

Castel Gandolfo has not been a brilliant jumper of hurdles so far but I am hoping that issue may have been addressed in the last few weeks. I think he may well have won a good race at Kelso last time but for a blunder two out and he had previously jumped better when runner-up in a similar handicap at Haydock. He is only 2lbs higher now.

He ran perhaps his best race over hurdles at Cheltenham last November after a three-and-a-half month break, where he stayed on very strongly. I expect the long run in here to suit very well and a short absence is not an issue from this yard.

3.08 Chester: King of Stars

He hit form last time out at Sandown and has a lot in his favour here.

King of Stars is only 1lb higher than when bolting up in a 0-95 handicap at Yarmouth on his final start of the latest turf season after steady improvement throughout the summer. He didn’t do well on the all-weather and in Meydan when mainly campaigned in Listed sprints but his latest effort showed he was on the way back.

King Of Stars will very likely get the lead here from stall 3 with slow starters inside him and looks well capable of holding on if reproducing his recent form. Frederick Larson claims 5lbs and keeps the ride.

3.14 Market Rasen: Mortlach

He has an awful lot going for him here.

Mortlach has been odds-on when winning each of his last four starts, a hurdle followed by three chases. He has never actually been unplaced throughout his National Hunt career, firstly with Paul Nicholls and now with perennially in form Fergal O’Brien.

Mortlach has been campaigned in small-field handicaps as a chaser and has won each start very easily. While the lack of opposition has resulted in few subsequent runs from those in behind, there have been enough good recent efforts to indicate that he looks generously handicapped here off a mark of 130.

Mortlach has jumped well on all of his starts but he has shown a slight tendency to jump to the right on his two latest runs, so this course might well help his jumping. He likes to race up with the pace and this course traditionally suits that racing style, too.