Saturday horse racing tips: Dave Nevison’s best bets for Cheltenham

1.05 Cheltenham: Strictlyadancer at 5-1 with Sky Bet (who offer six places)

He seems to have just about everything in his favour and probably rates my best bet of the weekend.

Strictlyadancer is quite a young horse but has quite a bit of experience over fences already. His win last time in a 17-runner handicap chase was his best yet and such experience in a field of that size over this course and distance is invaluable. He only won by a length and a half last time, but he was never going to get beaten once taking up the running three from home. He could be in for a very good season and, for me, a 5lb rise won’t stop him.

I have expressed my respect for Christian Williams as a trainer several times and he seems particularly adept with staying chasers. I am happy to believe it is no accident that this horse finds himself getting into a big Saturday handicap off bottom- weight.

The final piece of an attractive jigsaw is the jockey (another factor Williams gets right). With Ben Bromley impressing over hurdles for lots of yards since coming over from Ireland. This will obviously be a test for him over these fences, but I am happy to go with the trainer’s judgement (Bromley rode over fences for Nicky Henderson in the summer).

I will be disappointed if I don’t at least get my money back on a decent each way bet.

1.25 Wetherby: Earlofthecotswolds

Earlofthecotswolds has come down 11lb in the weights since last autumn and, judging by his reappearance effort, now looks ready to capitalise.

I really think this punishing home straight is tough for a horse after a long absence and for that reason I am taking on Dan Skelton’s interesting Floki in preference of the race-fit Earlofthecotswolds, who may represent much better value.

He ran very well at Market Rasen last time and would have been much closer but for a blunder two-out. He was dropped 3lb for that, while he gets an extra 3lb here courtesy of Jordan Nailor’s valuable claim.

2.15 Cheltenham: Al Dancer at a general 6-1

He fared the best of my two tips in the race last year and, from this 5lb-lower mark, would have gone very close to winning. I am happy to go with Al Dancer on his own today.

Sam Twiston-Davies keeps the ride, but Al Dancer has moved stable to Sam Thomas who is in terrific form. While I am not suggesting he is a better trainer than Nigel Twiston-Davies, the switch may just be what this horse needs to put up a big performance.

Al Dancer goes very well fresh, and even last season his debut win at Newton Abbot looks very strong given how well runner-up Mister Tommytucker fared afterwards. It looks a good move to target this race on his reappearance and stable debut - he has won most of his races in the run-up to Christmas and even his races won after the turn of the year were fresh after a break. He obviously showed last year he enjoys a big-field, fast-run race.

2.50 Cheltenham: Dragon Bones at a general 4-1

Dragon Bones probably would have beaten the re-opposing Ballymillsy at Worcester off level weights two starts ago, but that proved academic as she was left clear at the last when he departed. Neither has gone backwards over the summer but, on these revised terms in handicap company, I am happy to stick Dragon Bones in receipt of 3lb in addition to Charlie Todd’s useful 3lb claim.

Dragon Bones had a successful time last spring and, of the two, might be better suited to the unseasonably good-ish ground.

Trainer Ian Williams won this race three seasons ago with the talented First Assignment so clearly knows what is required.