Runner-by-runner guide to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Fourteen contenders will now go to post for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on Sunday after Love was ruled out on Saturday due to developing a temperature.

Connections of Adayar and Snowfall each paid €120,000 to supplement their stars on Wednesday to an already glittering line-up. Teona has also been scratched but eight Group One winners remain in the mix with headline acts from England, Ireland, France, Germany and Japan on course to clash.

Here’s a guide to the big race.

A soggy Monday in Paris has been followed by a mixture. On Friday, the going was described as “soft” but Tony Mullins, the trainer of Princess Zoe, his Prix du Cadran hope, described it on Friday as good, bordering on good to firm. Plenty more rain is forecast this weekend and, if the predictors have got their sums right, soft going or worse going could well be on the cards.

A low draw helps, with nine of the past 11 winners at Longchamp breaking from stall eight or lower. Treve (2013) and Golden Horn (2015) did defy high draws, although the former was in a different league to the opposition, while the latter was given an audacious ride. A good example of the draw making a big difference came in 2018 when Enable, drawn six, had a dream run around the inside and retained her crown at the expense of Sea Of Class, who broke from 15 and had to weave her way through to challenge. The line came just in time for Enable, who won by a short neck. If the going does become deep, though, the draw may become less of a factor as more gaps are likely to appear.

There are no habitual front-runners in the line-up, or designated pacemakers. That raises the possibility of a steadily-run renewal, like last year, but the cast of characters in the race make it unlikely. For instance, Mojo Star (drawn in one) and Hurricane Lane (two) are proven stayers and their jockeys will not want the contest to develop into a sprint. Neither will want to lead, but expect them to be ridden forward and to press on some way out if required.

Who will take them along? Deep Bond, a thorough stayer, made all in his trial and, from stall five, is well positioned to try and repeat the dose. But the quickest way to get any stayer beaten dropping in trip is to ask him to go too fast too early, so don’t expect Mickael Barzalona to fall into that trap. He will want to gently turn the screw, but I don’t think he has the horse to drag the big guns out of their comfort zones. Broome was used as a pacemaker for his Ballydoyle counterparts in the King George and it would be no surprise if he were calling the tune in the early stages, especially as his much better-fancied stablemate Snowfall is likely to be held up in the second half of the pack. It’s hard to see Broome winning but he could help set the race up for Snowfall, if she is back in the kind of form she showed when waltzing clear in the Oaks.

The jockeys of Adayar and Chrono Genesis, two leading contenders drawn wide, will be eager to break well and slot in somewhere in mid-division without hitting any early panic buttons. Start slowly and they will be forced to loiter out the back with mud kicked in their faces, and be hostages too fortune. Start too quickly, and they risk lighting up their contenders up, and leaving them vulnerable when it matters most. Frankie Dettori famously stayed very wide when winning from stall 14 on Golden Horn in 2015, but the ground was quick on that occasion and it was an audacious move.

Tarnawa has a good slot in stall three but she is usually held up and invited to pick off rivals. That evidently suits her, so don’t be surprised if Christophe Soumillon is happy to dwell for a moment, or miss the kick, when the gates are released. She can be a little fractious when going in the stalls and her connections will be anxious she doesn’t use up too much nervous energy beforehand.

Group One form: 11 General odds: 5-2

He had Hurricane Lane well adrift in third when an emphatic winner of the Derby and then put Mishriff and Love in their place in the King George at Ascot. You cannot quibble with that form and, having had only six runs, there might easily be more to come from the Frankel colt, who also seems versatile regards the ground. The niggle is that he missed his intended prep in the Prix Niel after picking up an infection in his hind leg and, while evidently fully recovered, Charlie Appleby has had to resort to Plan B. He seemed to need a couple of runs to put an edge on him for the Derby, and the last Arc winner to win after more than 38 days off the track was Workforce, back in 2010. A draw in stall 11 is also not ideal.

Group One form: 32 Odds: 25-1

He beat Adayar when the pair made their respective reappearances in the Classic Trial at Sandown (1m 2f) in late April, but their careers have since gone in different trajectories. Alenquer did follow up with a workmanlike win in the King Edward VII Stakes but his subsequent heavy defeats (behind Hurricane Lane and Mishriff) point to him having hit a plateau.

Group One form: 05 Odds: 66-1

Caught on the line by Bubble Gift in the Prix Niel over course and distance on his latest start, but that was a weak renewal after Adayar’s defection and it’s hard to see him making much impact. He had previously made up the numbers in the French Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, the latter race won by Hurricane Lane.

Group One form: 2-46-4214 Odds: 50-1

He was bought to run in the Arc by Masaaki Matsushima in 2019 and, belatedly, the Japanese owner will get his wish. It’s evidently not been plain sailing with Broome since he finished a close fourth in the Derby two years ago but he’s had a busy and productive season, with his four wins this term including an all-the-way victory in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud (when he had last year’s Arc runner-up In Swoop back in fourth). However, since then he’s been brushed aside in the King George (when effectively used as a pacemaker) and seemingly been beaten on merit by Deep Bond in the Prix Foy. Effective in the mud though, so possibly a case of the more rain the better for him.

Group One form: 6 Odds: 66-1

Was winning his second Group Two prize at Longchamp this year when collaring Baby Rider on the line in the Prix Niel but, as previously mentioned, that was a very ordinary running. In between, he had finished a distant sixth in the Grand Prix de Paris. His best chance of spring a shock would be if the ground turned heavy because he’s bred to cope with such conditions and, like his close relation Bubble Smart, he looks a thorough stayer.

Group One form: 2-3315-213121 Odds: 10-1

Japan’s quest to win the Arc has always ended in heartache and she has an unfavourable draw in stall 14, but underestimate this brilliant mare at your peril. If you are not familiar with some of her performances in her native country, then take a look on YouTube. She’s a strong traveller with a potent turn of foot, and we don’t have to guess as to her quality because she finished a close third to the brilliant Almond Eye on one occasion last year (when given a lot to do) and ran Mishriff to a neck in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. She might have won the latter race, too, had she not got into a barging match with Loves Only You, who finished third.

This has since been the aim for Chrono Genesis, with her decisive Group One win back on home soil in late July showing that her exploits in Dubai had left no mark. She’s a daughter of 2004 Arc winner Bago, stays well, and will be fresh after only two races this year. Testing ground is the great unknown but she did win on soft ground the one previous time she encountered it (admittedly soft going in Japan is unlikely to be as testing as soft at Longchamp) and doubts are offset by her double-figure odds. Oisin Murphy rides for the first time but partnered her on the Chantilly gallops this week.

Group One form: 0542 Odds: 20-1

He’s another challenger from Japan but he’s never exhibited the brilliance of Chrono Genesis, winning twice at Group Two level but coming up short on the four occasions he’s tackled Group One races. In addition, his best form has been over almost two miles. Having said that, he won the Prix Foy with authority – making all and keeping on stoutly to readily keep a decent yardstick in Broome at bay. That will give Deep Bond’s connections hope he can be in the mix but dominating these rivals will be much tougher. And if he met Chrono Genesis over 1m4f in Japan, then I’m sure the latter will be extremely cramped odds to make short work of him.

Group One form: 3111 Odds: 5-1

I’m a big fan of this colt, whose only defeat in seven starts came when third to Adayar in the Derby. He was beaten eight lengths that day but I’m not sure he was at home on the track and, in any case, he has since looked much more the finished article in reeling off successive wins in the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris (by a wide margin over course and distance) and St Leger. Ideally, he could probably have done with a longer pause since his latest success at Town Moor but he did most of his work on the bridle that day and he’d had a two-month break beforehand. Stall two gives him no excuses and soft ground or worse would be a bonus for him on two fronts because he copes well with such conditions and it would bring his stamina more into play. You cannot blame William Buick for sticking with Adayar, although he preferred Hurricane Lane in the Derby. The door is open for James Doyle to erase the memory of Sea Of Class’s luckless Arc defeat three years ago.

Group One form: 252 Odds: 66-1

His sole victory was achieved in a maiden at Newbury but he’s shown he belongs at the top level by finishing runner-up in the Derby and the St Leger. He wasn’t a match for Adayar on the first occasion, and Hurricane Lane beat him with authority at Doncaster, but you cannot blame his connections for rolling the dice. He looks all about stamina and is proven in the mud, so testing conditions would be a bonus. From stall 1, he should be able to get a handy early position.

Group One form: 425 Odds: 20-1

She’s a smart filly and was a staying-on fifth in last year’s muddling renewal, having chased home Tarnawa in the Prix Vermeille on her previous start. This year has no doubt been all about a second tilt at the Arc, and she looked on good terms with herself when gaining a decisive win in Group Two company at Deauville last time. Her defeats earlier in the season had been over shorter when probably some way short of her peak, so do not judge her too harshly on those. I like her preparation and I like her odds, but I don't like her draw in 15 and this is a deep renewal. She will need luck in running plus a few of the big guns to misfire if she’s to keep the prize on home soil.

Group One form: 15-82 Odds: 33-1

He was an eight-length winner of the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 7f on heavy going at the Arc meeting last year but been unable to add to that tally in four subsequent starts. However, he wasn’t beaten far behind St Mark’s Basilica in the French 2000 Guineas and chased home that outstanding colt in the French Derby last time, when apparently suited by the step up to 1m 2f. Whether he will stay this far in a true-run race on soft ground is open to question, but connections have kept the dream alive by swerving the traditional trial day a few weeks ago. Heavy rain would be a double-edged sword because: he clearly relishes deep ground, but it would make for more of a stamina test.

Group One form: 98-1112 Odds: 5-1

Her only claim to fame in seven starts as a two-year-old was when involved in the case of mistaken identity in the Fillies’ Mile, but she’s been a revelation this year with a fluent success in the Musidora being used as a springboard for runaway wins in the Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks. The Prix Vermeille looked something of a formality for her last time, at least on paper, but she was unable to peg back Teona (a filly she had thumped on two occasions earlier in the year) with the close proximity of her stablemate La Joconde (third) confirming she was way below her best. It’s unclear why Snowfall was so lacklustre – did running on fast ground at York the time before leave a mark? - or what version of her will turn up this weekend. If she’s back in the form that enabled her to win by a record 16 lengths on soft ground at Epsom, then all will not be lost. But, suddenly, there is an “if” in the equation. Stall 9 should not make the difference betwen victory and defeat.

Group One form: 09-111-2 Odds: 5-2

There have been a couple of blips along the way – the 2019 Oaks and Champions Day the same year – but otherwise Tarnawa’s story has been one of pretty much sustained success. In the past year, in particular, she’s been faultless and her form at the end of last year, when she reeled off successive wins in the Prix Vermeille, Prix de l’Opera and Breeders’ Cup Turf highlighted all her class and versatility. This year has been all about the Arc, with her easy comeback win at Leopardstown delayed until August and her latest spin, in the Irish Champion Stakes, seen as the perfect tee-up race. Four of the past dozen Arc winners have run in that race beforehand, so you can see the logic. Tarnawa came up a bit short against St Mark’s Basilica, who was allowed first run and carried her right, but if anything with her reputation enhanced. She seems impervious to the ground and is well-drawn in stall 3. It’s difficult to envisage anything but a big run.

Group One form: 2312 – 21 Odds: 66-1

It’s been a decade since Danedream gave Germany a famous Arc success, but it’s difficult to see Torqator Tasso matching that achievement. He is the top older horse in Germany and got the better of Sisfahan, this year’s German Derby winner, in Group One company on his latest start, but his defeats outweigh his victories and his penultimate effort, when splitting British challengers Alpinista and Walton Street at Hoppegarten, points to him having plenty to find in such exalted company.

You can make a case for plenty but my preference is for HURRICANE LANE, a Frankel colt who seems to be getting better and better. The triple Group One winner was superb when romping home over course and distance on his penultimate outing, is well drawn and is unlikely to be inconvenienced if the ground deteriorates. The niggle is whether this might come too soon after the St Leger, but that seems to be factored into his price of about 5-1.